Wild West

Long time readers of this blog will be, or should be, very familiar with the edge that has existed in the NFL since the 2006 season when backing certain Underdogs. 

It's one of the systems detailed in the Sacred Manuscript, and while I mentioned in my last post that the basic system hasn't had the best of seasons this year, an ROI of 9.6% from 1082 games is noteworthy.

As with many basic systems, there are certain conditions that improve an ROI, and with the basic rationale of this system that home-field advantage is overrated, this system is no different.  In US sports, travel is often a significant issue as I've mentioned before with four time zones spanning the country, and there are also major differences in climate and altitude. 

While some sports such as the NBA have made changes to schedules over the years to reduce the impact of travel:

NBA Home vs Road Score Differential is 5.4 points over the past 20 years and chart below shows it by team. This is road versus home, meaning that home teams win on average by 2.7 points. Top two teams have thin air, bottom two teams in NYC.

Thanks to Smoke The Books for this, an account worth following in my opinion and I believe it was this account that pointed out there are now websites showing you the travel schedules for NBA and NHL teams. Next level analysis! 

As touched on in the quote above regarding the NBA, the two home teams with the biggest advantage are the two at the highest altitudes - Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz.

Utah has no NFL team, but Denver does, with the Broncos playing at the "sponsor" at Mile High stadium. (The owners seem very keen to keep the reference to Mile High in there). 

The Western divisions, conferences and teams are of interest not just because of the mountains, but also because teams are far more spaced out than in the Eastern side of the country and travel (which works both ways) can be significant. 

For example, the Kansas City Chiefs play in the AFC West and have to travel about 1,350 miles when playing a Divisional game in Los Angeles, and are geographically farther East than the Dallas Cowboys who play in the NFC East.

Obviously there are lots of permutations to look at, but back to the NFL's AFC West and when following the Small Road 'Dogs System for games hosted in this division, the percentage of winners is 72.3%, compared to an overall 56.3% across all games. 

Unsurprisingly, the next best division is the NFC West, and the two worst divisions neatly filling the lowest two places in this table are the Easts although 'worst' here is a relative term since this is still a profitable strategy here. 

The NFL regular season is almost over, with the final games on the first weekend of 2024, and another year is over. 

Merry Xmas and / or Happy Holidays to everyone reading this, and all being well I shall be back in the new year for a 17th year of blogging. Stay healthy, and good luck.