Friday 9 February 2024

Asia and Africa Finals

The 2023 Africa Cup of Nations and the AFC Asian Cup both come to an end this weekend. 

In Asia the Final is between hosts and favourite Qatar and Jordan while in Africa hosts and underdog Ivory Coast meet Nigeria.

Finals of International Tournaments are generally good for the Draw, with the eight Africa Finals producing 1.83 units of profit  and the three Asia Finals up 3.31 units. The combined ROI from this small sample size is 47% and for all 43 International Finals it is 28%.

This is the first Final in the spreadsheet where a host nation has been the underdog, and the fifth where one has been the favourite - and in none of those previous four has any side scored more than one goal. 
Africa also has a third-place game coming up, D.R. Congo v South Africa, but these are not knockout matches and overall, backing the Draw is not historically profitable with the 30 matches showing an ROI of -4%. However, in matches where the Draw is the second favourite, the ROI is 15%. Backing the favourite has an ROI of 42% in matches where the Draw is third favourite. 

Following this, the NFL season also comes to an end with the Superbowl in Las Vegas where the San Francisco 49ers are 2 point favourites to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.  

As I wrote last year, it's very hard to find an edge in such a big game. This is the 58th Superbowl and of the previous 54 (excluding one pick 'em in 2015 and two pushes) Favourites are 28 - 26 ATS while for the Totals it's a 28 - 28 split between Over and Under. This is the Chiefs fourth Superbowl in five seasons and the second time they've played the 49ers having beaten them 31:20 in 2020. 

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