weirimdi followed up on his teaser of a comment regarding Cup competitions with some more data and some additional observations.
He wrote:
Hello again, thank you for responding to my comment in your recent post.
As you suggested I looked at the ROIs of the respective leagues.
Here is a link the screenshot. https://prnt.sc/wAmY8WxJd54DIn addition to that you might want to look up the performance of major leagues in the Champions League when they play as an Away Team.
https://prnt.sc/u5y1fIA954AOAnother interesting angle here is that most of the Home Teams are underperforming. I included Group Stages/Qualifier/Knock Out Stages for CL and for the Cup selections too.
It has the data onwards based on maximum odds from betexplorer.com.
Thanks for the interest!
I might have mention this before, but I happen to love this stuff so thank YOU for the comment. The Cup data shows some interesting returns - Turkey's Cup with an ROI of 15.7% from 2000+ matches for example.
As for the comment about teams from the major leagues when playing Away in the Champions League, yes I do track this although my idea about the 'major leagues' may differ since the highlighted ones are England, France, Portugal and Spain.
Here are my numbers for the Big Five Leagues of England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain showing that opposing these teams (back the Home team if they are a Big Five club / back the Draw if not) is generally a good idea: More on this topic to come, possibly after the Round of 16 is complete and we have a little more data but - spoiler alert - backing an Away team from Germany, Italy or Spain is generally not a good idea with an ROI of -14%.
The longest drawdown for my sports investing accounts was a mere 227 days back in 2007 but the mind is a funny thing and in many ways that felt a lot worse. I made a stupid mistake on New Year's Day and lost £5,000, what at the time seemed like a lot of money. As I've written before, it took me until August to recover, but I learned a valuable lesson from my error.
The new high comes at a good time psychologically. I have my annual review later today, and while any merit increase at my age is of little interest to me, I am much more interested in the size of my annual bonus and stock options. Perhaps not as interested as my wife, who has plans for new flooring, showers, cabinets and kitchen...
With February extended by a day this year, there are still five trading days where it could all go horribly wrong, but I'm hopeful of ending the month at, or close to, a new high.
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