Baseball Botters and Bonders

It's been a while since I wrote about baseball, yes OK, it's been a while since I wrote about most things, but there was a very interesting occurence in the last game of the evening yesterday which has reportedly resulted in some bettors losing millions.

The San Francisco Giants were at home to the Los Angeles Angels and in the bottom of the 10th inning with the score tied 6-6 and the bases loaded:

[Rafael] Devers hits what is normally a ground rule double. The initial final score shown is an 8-6 Giants win (due to an official MLB scorer error). - Over 13.5 runs, Giants -1.5, and Giants team total o7.5 runs bond to 99c thanks to bots

However:

MLB rules state that a walk off ground rule double cannot score multiple runs and in this scenario counts as a single instead of a double - People start to realize this and insane action comes in to unbond the above markets. Prices go absolutely haywire, touching 1c and 99c multiple times

For readers not familiar with the term 'bond' it's equivalent to betting on Betfair at 1.01. In prediction markets, a market “bonded to 99c” means that bots or bettors pushed the price all the way up to 99 cents (to win $1) — treating the outcome as basically guaranteed.

How various companies settled these markets is unclear but presumably Betfair (if they did initially settle the o13.5 runs, Giants -1.5 and Giants team total o7.5 as winners) re-settled based on the actual final score of 7:6.

2026 World Cup Knockout Summary

The 2026 World Cup is over, and it resulted in another profit for followers of the Draw in knockout matches which sounds good, but without the Argentina v Cabo Verde draw in the Round of 32 the return would have been negative. 

Eight of the 31 matches ended as draws, and arguably we were a little unlucky with nine other matches seeing a goal in the 86th minute or later. 

The "hydration breaks" noticeably impacted games, but whether we can blame them for the draw-busting late goals or this is just down to chance, in my opinion it's too small a sample from which we can draw any real conclusions.

The raw numbers for the full system are 31 matches, 8 Draws, +3.81 units, ROI 12% but for those ignoring matches with an odds-on favourite, there was a small loss with 13 matches, 4 Draws, -0.25 units, and an ROI of -1.9%.

Backing the favourite would have made a profit of 2.6 units (ROI 8%) while backing the underdog would have been costly at -16.9 units, an ROI of -55%. 

The updated numbers for the Draw in all major International tournament knockout matches since 2004 (World Cup, Euros, AFCON, Copa América, AFC Asian Cup, Gold Cup and the UEFA and CONCACAF Nations Cup):

Beware the 'Dog

The Draw in the Argentina v Cape Verde match on Saturday ensured that the Round of 32 would end in a profit for draw backers, but at the halfway point of the Round of 16, not one match has yet gone to extra-time, although only Morocco v Canada was decided by more than one goal. 

Norway's win against Brazil was a very rare win in 90 minutes for the underdog, with only one other such outcome in the last 42 World Cup knockout matches (Morocco beat Portugal 1:0 in the 2022 Quarter Final.) 

We have had 95 knockout matches in the World Cup since 2006 and this was just the 12th underdog win with the ROI now at -50%. The ROI for the Favourite is -0.02%, with the Draw at 28%.

In the major Confederation tournament (Euros, Copa, AFCON, Gold Cup and Asian) knockout matches, backing the 'dog has an ROI of -23% from 317 matches. 

Bottom line: If you're on the underdog in these games, good luck - you'll need it. 

Hit Me

Although my attention has been distracted away from betting and blogging for quite a while, this blog has continued to garner hits with over 400k last month despite only one new post in about eight months. 

In total, Green All Over is not too far off 6 million hits, but it has been going since March 2008, which means the average monthly hit count is around 26k, which is well shy of last month's 400k.  

As I don't make money from the blog, my interest is academic, but growth in hits does appear to be exponential unless something unusual happened last month. 

In February 2017 I noted that:

At the current 2017 hit rate of 770 a day, this blog will reach one and a half million hits in less than five days time

So the pace has certainly quickened.  

Interestingly, that post contained a couple of prescient comments:

Along with not updating this blog, the updated Sacred Manuscript for 2025/26 was another casualty of 'Palace in Europe', but before I disappear off to Mallorca for the Total Eclipse in August, and possibly to Europe for some Europa League games in the autumn, I should have time this summer to complete a 2026/27 edition. 

I started on it today, with American Football the first system, and it might be a good thing I now have two more years of data. For one of the most basic systems described in the document as "consistently profitable since 2006", the 2024 season was not good at all, with a losing 24-30-0 record. 

However, in the 2025 season, the system recovered those losses and more with a 34-22-2 record. With a single season generating a low number of selections, variabilty always has the potential to be an issue. 

World Cup Knockout Matches

As I may have mentioned once or twice, one of the most consistently profitable betting strategies is that of backing the Draw in the knockout rounds of major international football tournaments, and with the current FIFA World Cup reaching that stage in a few days, I thought a post on this topic might be timely and of interest.

I have data going back to 2006 and blindly backing the Draw in all 75 elimination matches since then would have generated a profit of 25.59 units, an ROI of 34%. 

Only in 2010 would you have made a loss, (-1.62u) with 2014 the best year with 16.94u. 

Of the four rounds, only the semi-final is currently showing a loss, albeit just 0.66u.

If you'd excluded matches where the favourite was odds-on, the 30 matches would have an ROI of 61% (18.17u). Only five of the 30 games was decided by more than one goal.

Of course a quadrennial tournament such as the World Cup doesn't generate a huge sample size, but as I've mentioned before, it's a trend that persists across the individual confederation tournaments, Euros, Afcons etc. Only CONCACAF's Gold Cup bucks the trend, but even here their new Nations Cup competition falls in line:

An extra "Round of 32" this year will mean more than twice (31) as many elimination matches than in the past. This might not be great news with the likelihood of mismatches. The Round of 16 is currently the stage with the most goals, averaging 2.45 goals per game and of course, goals are not what we want. It's quite likely that the Round of 32 will be even higher with at least one team ranked in the 60s definitely through (South Africa). 

Friend of the blog Peter K wrote to say:

Since the last World Cup where I did rather well on your recommendation for the strategy following the group stage, I've been looking forward to doubling down this year.

But after 50% of group games so far have ended in draws I'm getting somewhat anxious :(

At the time of writing (54 matches completed) the percentage of drawn matches has reverted to a more typical 26% so hopefully Peter's fully back on board. Past performance is no guarantee of future success of course, but this is an edge that shows no sign of fading away. 

Since 1986, when the Round of 16 was first introduced, 53 of 150 elimination matches have ended (after 90 minutes) as Draws, and the lowest number in any single tournament was 4 in 2010, 1998, 1994 and 1986. 

On a personal note, my European adventure following Crystal Palace around Europe came to a wonderful end in Leipzig last month. I saw my team play in Norway, Poland, France, Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Poland (again) and Germany. On the one trip where my wife was with me, we additionally spent a week in Rome and time in Switzerland and Belgium. The issue I have now is that after telling my wife this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, Palace won the tournament and get to do it all again next season. I made some good friends along the way, (reader Andy being extremely helpful), saw some wonderful places that I hadn't previously heard of, saw the always friendly Mark Bright on three consecutive trips, bumped into an equally friendly Steve Parish on the eve of the Final and drank too many beers. Retirement came at a good time. 

Reasons and Excuses

As some of you may have noticed, I have been somewhat distracted for the past few months. I've had a few emails from concerned readers asking if I am OK, and another has become a very good friend through our shared love of Crystal Palace, helping me to obtain tickets for some of the club's away matches in Europe of which I have so far seen five out of six. These are memories which I shall cherish. When you support a club such as Palace, if they qualify for Europe it's an opportunity that can't be missed and I'm fortunate that this adventure happened in the sweet spot between retirement and decrepitude. If Palace (currently favourites) can win the UEFA Conference League, then it'll be more of the same next season in the UEFA Europa League. That's a big "if" though.  

My wife accompanied me on one of the trips (the Strasbourg match) as the game there coincided with the opening of the Christmas markets with Strasbourg one of the main such places, but her match experience wasn't great as she was knocked over during the surge when Palace took the lead, and tear-gassed or pepper-sprayed (I'm not exactly sure what it was in the air) on the way back to the hotel after being detained in a muddy, pot-holed car park before being funnelled out through a small gate. That Palace went on to lose after taking the lead didn't help, but I suspect that affected me more than her. She was quite pleased to have a photo taken with Mark Bright, who I also saw on the flight to Dublin and again in Bosnia before the game. He's going to think he has a stalker! Mrs Cassini doesn't seem in a hurry to come to any more games in Europe, but with Andy keeping me up until 3:30am in Bosnia watching me dribble half my dinner down my shirt, that's not really bad news. I knew I'd had a good meal, I just couldn't recall what I'd eaten. 

I've typically travelled to wherever Palace play early in the week to spend some time in the local area, and have seen southern Norway, eastern Poland (Lublin was my favourite so far, a city I had previously never heard of and an unexpected delight), Dublin and Sarajevo and Mostar in Bosnia. The Strasbourg game was preceded by a week in Rome with my wife, two days in Basel and followed by a few days in Baden Baden and Bruges. I've rekindled friendships with old friends and made new friends along the way too, some in the most unlikely of places. The Majdanek concentration and extermination camp at Lublin in Poland, the War and Genocide Museum in a still very divided Mostar, Bosnia and at Sarajevo Airport where several of us were delayed five hours and had an unsceduled overnight stay in Zurich. Being on my own, I was made very welcome by a group of fans there and while a lengthy delay is usually not the best news, I actually quite enjoyed the experience.

Unfortunately it hasn't all been good times, as we suffered a loss in the family to suicide last November which has been rather upsetting, especially for my daughter whose two year old son will now grow up and never know his Dad. The statistics are shocking. It's basically an epidemic with suicide being the leading cause of death in men under 50. I don't mean to sound trite about this, but if anyone reading this post is struggling with their mental health, please get the help you need. It's absolutely devastating to those left behind.

As regular readers will know, I am partial to a spreadsheet and when updating one of them a couple of weeks ago, had the rather unsettling experience of finding that £48,000 was missing from one of my accounts, and then find that another £30,000 was taken from the same account the next day - both transfers made to the same Charles Schwab account, and neither of which I knew anything about. Had I not spotted the fraud within two days and stopped it, I dare say other amounts would have been withdrawn until the account was drained. From what I've been told, the funds were recouped, but how someone was able to access my account this way is concerning. I was told to take my PC to be cleaned of any viruses which I did, but none were found, and I had to file a police report. The young officer asked if I wanted to prosecute the fraudster if they were found, though I suspect the chances of that are slim to none, with slim being out of town! 

Some positive news though, and I do have a new granddaughter born to my son and daughter-in-law last Friday, so we leave tomorrow for a trip to Surrey to see her with a few days in Faversham to follow. We will spend Easter in Berrynarbor, North Devon (my parents and maternal grandparents are in the churchyard there) before spending time with my older granddaughters on half-term holidays and taking in a couple of Crystal Palace home games and hoping to meet up with some old and new Palace friends. 

With one glaring exception, actually two as we had to say goodbye to one of our dogs last week - and as anyone who has been through this will know, it's very upsetting - but mostly the last few months have been busy and positive and betting has not been the priority in life that it once was. Another project has come along which has taken up much of my spare time.

Nevertheless I have made a start at updating the results for some of my systems, but I am told by Dr Tsouts that he has been following the:

"Greek draws and Serie A away wins and the results are good!"

while Peter wrote that he has:

"been enjoying a terrific run in the past month or so thanks to soccer and NFL. Draws aplenty in EPL :) have boosted my bank to a new high."

That's what we like to read, although that was back in January, so things might have changed, but next month I should be able to provide some updates.

It is quite remarkable how many hits a blog that hasn't been updated in months continues to get, which does make me feel slightly bad about my absences and lack of posts, but life is short and I've been having a lot of fun, which is really what life is, or should be, all about. 

Update

I am still working on a new version of the Sacred Manuscript but it's been slow going.

Las month I went to Norway for Crystal Palace's UEFA Conference League game at Fredrikstad, and today I am flying to Lublin (in Poland) for the Dynamo Kyiv match. 

In between, my wife's family have some ongoing serious heath issues, and one of my dogs (she's 15) has had a mass removed (at great expense I might add, but hopefully not cancerous) so the bottom line is that Manuscript updates haven't been a priority. 

Hopefully things will calm down soon and I can make solid progress in October. 

Thank you for your patience and stay safe and well. Life is precious.

Summer Slumber

My old friend Dr Tsouts awoke me from my summer slumber with an email asking about an updated version of the Sacred Manuscript or failing that, at least an update for he Premier League Draws.

Slumbering is not an accurate adjective to describe how my summer has been going. It's actually been very busy since the beginning of April when my son and I took a nine day road trip from New Orleans to Savannah. The excesses of that trip had barely worn off when my son dragged me to Cardiff for his stag weekend. 

After surviving that, I was at Wembley to see Crystal Palace win the FA Cup, then came the wedding itself, and a couple of weeks traveling with my wife (who wasn't invited to either the stag weekend or the Cup Final). 

Shortly after that I was climbing Helvellyn, attending my school reunion (50th) and then more recently have had my daughter and three grandchildren (ages 10, 9 and 2) staying with us for four weeks, with my son, wife and his daughter (8) overlapping the last two weeks, so it has all been a bit hectic, which is all a long-winded way of saying that updating the Sacred Manuscript has not been anywhere near the top of my list. 

Enthused by their Cup success, most of my spare time has been spent updating my Crystal Palace spreadsheet which now has every match result and line-up for every one of the 5217 matches in the professional club's history. 

What I am going to do with all this data remains to be seen. I'm pondering a book, but I suspect the market for tidbits such as which Palace player has been substituted most often in FA Cup matches (A: Jean-Phillippe Mateta) or who was the first Crystal Palace player to score in an FA Charity / Community Shield (no, it wasn't Mateta last week) isn't that large. 

Anyway, the last of my family left yesterday so once we have repaired the house I shall be back to looking at sports investing which hasn't been the priority in life that it once was. Unsurprisingly my weight has suffered under this barrage of social activity but researching Draws and losing weight aren't mutually exclusive and I have promised Dr Tsouts that I would look at the Premier League Draws this week. Unfortunately he has cautioned that:

I am afraid that draw system at least for big 6 was not profitable last year ( while opposing the home team was good idea) but I will skip the first matchday and wait for your suggestions!

With only 30 Big Six matches a season, some variance is to be expected in such a system, but I shall take a look. The performances of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United were more Big Sixteen than Big Six and that may well not have helped but I haven't looked closely into the matter yet. 

I did see some posts on Twitter from Joseph Buchdahl @12Xpert  that suggested Pinnacle's Closing Odds will no longer be available from this season which would be disappointing, but there are other options.

Equal Rights, Spurs Draw-less, MLB Updates

For any followers applying the Sacred Manuscript's "International Tournament Elimination Matches Draw System" strategy in the ongoing UEFA Women's Euro 2025, a profit is already guaranteed with two Draws from the three matches with no odds-on favourite, or three Draws from six matches if you blindly back the Draw in all matches.

Including the Women's World Cup matches, these tournaments since 2009 have ROIs of 22.3% (for the no-odds-on system / 42 matches) and 7.6% in all 86 matches.  

Spain are odds-on to beat England in the Final this Sunday.

From an investment perspective, the Women's tournaments overall are a little behind those of the Men, where the respective ROI's in Euros and World Cups are 42% and 35%, but results from the most recent three tournaments show ROIs on a par with those of the Men at 56% and 34% respectively. 

The MLB season had its annual All-Star break a few days ago, and the season has been mixed so far for the systems in the Sacred Manuscript. For the second consecutive season the All-Star Break systems had a loss 

The Totals System did very well in 2024 with a 64-46-3 record (14.93u / 13% ROI) and so far in 2025 also with an even better 60-38-0 record (19.12u / 20% ROI), but the Road Davids system has gone south in a hurry from a profit of 14.84u in 2024 to a loss this season to date of 21.99u. 

With the new football season just around the corner, I'll be updating the numbers for the various systems in the Sacred Manuscript. Backing the Draw in Big 6 matches last season was again profitable although Tottenham Hotspur managed to avoid the draw in all their 10 matches. 

In the traditional world of finance, the biggest news since my travels was the spectacular breakout for Bitcoin. Back in November I wrote:

Bitcoin did reach a new high and is currently around $77,000. The S&P500 also set a new high going above 6,000 for the first time ever on Friday.

That $77k is currently $119k and for the S&P 500 index it is at an all-time high of 6,379 right now. Unfortunately $TSLA has taken a dive today after another weak quarter for sales, a comment that Tesla would “probably could have a few rough quarters” and some (once again) rather vague forecasts around its robotaxi service from Elon Musk. 

Thunder Rolls

I've been a little distracted after all the excitement of May. My father-in-law is struggling with his health right now, after a knee replacement surgery that has not gone well. It needs to be re-done but first an an ongoing unidentified bacterial infection needs to resolved. 

My wife and I are now in California providing moral support, although the latter falls mostly on her.  I do have a 50th school reunion to attend in July so I will be leaving her for a while next week while I climb up Helvellyn - weather permitting - for the first time since 1973 before meeting up with at least one of the two friends I did that climb with. 

With my enthusiasm through the roof after the club's first major trophy, I've also been spending literally dozens of hours updating my Crystal Palace spreadsheet which has grown somewhat from my original goal. 

It now includes every single team lineup for the professional club dating back to the 1905-06 Southern League Second Division and through to the end of last season, which is exactly 5,201 matches and 61,953 player entries, not to mention the 7,252 goal scorers, and I've added two new categories to accommodate the Community Shield and Europa League games.

It's all very exciting and I am putting my retirement to good use, but once again, sports investing has remained a secondary activity, and I still need to update the 'official' results for the 2024-25 football systems.

In the NBA Finals, it's a Game 7 tonight - Oklahoma City Thunder versus Indiana Pacers.

Neither team has ever won the NBA Finals, although the franchise now in Oklahoma City did win one as the Seattle SuperSonics back in 1979.

The last Finals Game 7 was in 2016, and this was a rare win for the Road (Away) team which has won just 4 of 19 and just once in the seven games since since 1978.

Game 7s in the Final are a lot rarer now than they used to be. 

In the 1950s there were five. In the 1960s there were four.  In the 1970s three, the 1980s two, and just one each in the 1990s and the noughties. 

Looking at 'recent' spreads (i.e. those this century), in the most recent Game 7 (2016) the Cleveland Cavaliers were 5-point underdogs against the Golden State Warriors, and they won the game by four points.

In the 2013 Finals, the Miami Heat were 6-point favorites against the San Antonio Spurs and covered winning by seven points.

In 2010 the Los Angeles Lakers were 7-point favorites against the Boston Celtics  and won by four, while in 2005 Finals the Spurs won by seven as 5.5-point favorites against the Detroit Pistons. 

The spread is currently 7 and with the Thunder seemingly taking it very easy in Game 6 - they lost by 17 after being down by 31 at one point - I'm expecting them to repeat their Game 7 performance of the Conference Semifinals this year when they easily defeated (by 32 points) the Denver Nuggets in another home Game 7. 

May 2025 - A Month to Remember

I took the liberty of titling my last post 'Memorable May' and while it would have been memorable even with different outcomes, the month turned out to be one of the best of my life, and that is written with no exaggeration.

My son's wedding went off without a hitch at the Gorse Hill Hotel in Woking, and he and his bride are currently honeymooning in our ancestral homeland of Italy, and of course after supporting Crystal Palace for 58 years, they finally won a major trophy, and I am now prepared to concede that the Zenith Data Systems Cup was not really that major.

The stag weekend was in Cardiff - some drinking, darts, and rugby (Bristol v Bath) were all activities I could keep up with the younger ones at, the bubble football, not so much. At 68, trying to stand up without using your arms while enclosed in a giant plastic bubble isn't too easy but I survived and wasn't one of the two casualties of the weekend who were unable to process their alcohol the normal way. My son (also not one of the casualties) spent Saturday walking around Cardiff and watching rugby dressed as Woody from Toy Story, a look he carried off quite well I must say.

I then spent a few days in North Devon, walking to the top of the Little and Great Hangman hills near Combe Martin and staying by the harbour in Ilfracombe. The low point was finding out that Ye Olde Globe in Berrynarbor (established in 1675) is now closed after 350 years.

I also took my wife to the New Forest for a few days. She'd never been before, and I'd actually not been for many years, and it's really rather nice there.

Back to the FA Cup Final and my son and his daughter were both at Covent Garden and later the game with me, and with the latter having seen her first match in September, I fear the bar has been set a little high for her future years of support.

Both the wedding and the FA Cup Final were days I shall never forget. I was at the 1990 Final and Replay, as well as the 2016 Final and having been close to winning on both occasions, and playing one of the top clubs, it was with hope rather than expectation that I went to the Final. 

It was only when the clock showed 30 seconds left of stoppage time and Palace had a goal kick that I allowed myself to believe that we were actually going to win the FA Cup.

Tears were shed I am not ashamed to say. Whatever happens in the future, this will be the only time Palace will win their first major trophy and it meant everything. Even just writing this makes me emotional.

A thank you to Peter, Hikbuzz and Weirimdi for taking the time to comment on my last post or send me a message.

Hikbuzz wrote in early May:

Take it easy Cassini and have a great May

and after the FA Cup win followed up with:

Congrats on the FA Cup win, must have been so great to witness this first hand. I hope to emulate this myself as I am going to Munich on the 31st to support PSG in our quest for what would be our first Champions League win!

Much appreciated, and I am sure he enjoyed his first Champions League win, which was a little more comfortable than Palace's!

Given how good PSG have looked this season, I'm not sure 17th placed Tottenham Hotspur will be too excited about playing the Super Cup match next season.

Peter wrote:

Congrats to Crystal Palace and great to see your long term loyalty rewarded.
I'm sure you're still enjoying it. Not exactly the result we Sacred Manuscript subscribers were hoping for but ... oh well!

While I am still enjoying it, it is true that major finals often offer value for the Draw, but none of UEFA's tournaments hit this season, and only the Community Shield for the English matches. Oh well indeed... 

Did someone mention the Community Shield? Liverpool v Crystal Palace in August, the latter club with a chance to add a second major trophy to their collection... 

With the football season now over, I'll be working on the updates for the Sacred Manuscript. 

Peter identified a possible conflict with the recommendations for the Europa League Final (did I mention that Palace will be competing in this tournament neat season?) and the Europa Conference League Final and I'll make sure I clear this up. Thank you Peter for your input.

Regarding my minor skin cancer issue, Weirimdi also commented:

I wish you all the best. As someone who works in cancer research I can tell you that early discovery leads to very good outcome.

I am now required to have a full skin check every six months, which is a very minor inconvenience given the upside of any early discoveries as Weirimdi says. 

Back to Palace for a moment, and one of my long time friends who was a little older than me and a Palace supporter since the early 1960's passed away before the Semi-Final from prostate cancer, so get that 'finger up the botty' as one of my friends puts it, although these days that's not routine procedure. But get it checked anyway! 

Again, thank you for the comment Wierimdi, which is much appreciated.

It'll be a busy month for the Sacred Manuscript.

As I mentioned, the football season is now over following Oldham Athletic's win over Southend United yesterday.

In the USA, the NHL Stanley Cup Finals and the NBA Finals (both best of seven) both begin this week.

On Wednesday the NHL Final opens with the Florida Panthers playing the Edmonton Oilers who are hoping to become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993 and are favourites to do so.

On Thursday in the NBA, the Finals begin with the Oklahoma City Thunder big favourites to win against the Indiana Pacers.

The WNBA is also is full flow now, as well as MLB of course. 

As I fully anticipated, May was not a good month for my weight. Getting out of my routine with wedding related activities, football matches, catching up with old friends meaning I drank beer on 27 days, and a lot on a few of these, means I am back to where I was at the end of last year. June will be a lot different.

Financially, May wasn't such a great month either. I helped my son out with his wedding bar tab and upgraded his gift from the toaster I was hoping to get away with, and my former employer's stock price continued to decline to the point where none of my options are now in the money. 

Some individual holdings had a good month to help limit the damage - Tesla was up 23%, Boeing was up 13% and Palantir up 11% but with the news that Warren Buffett is retiring as Berkshire Hathaway's CEO at the end of 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price slipped by 5.5%. 

Overall I was down 1.8% on the month, the fourth consecutive losing month which is a first for me and hopefully a last, but probably not. Good luck to you all in June. 

Memorable May

Just a quick update to say that I had to have a minor procedure for some skin cancer which wasn't great news but could have been a lot worse, and that I shall be away from home for the next four weeks with a hectic schedule which now includes a trip to Wembley for the FA Cup Final. Third time lucky I hope, as Crystal Palace have been my club since my first game in April 1967, and to win the FA Cup would be very special. 

I'll be at the Nottingham Forest game tomorrow with my son and one of my granddaughters, before heading to a secret destination for his stag weekend. It's a secret from him, although I know where it will be. A few days in North Devon after that, then the Final, another home game versus Wolves, my son's wedding day and finally a few days in the Kent countryside at my sister's place to unwind from it all. 

May will be a memorable month, and hopefully better than April which was not a good month overall - either financially or health-wise - although the monetary losses were put into perspective by the latter and isolated to my former employer reporting results which the market did not like, and as a result most of my options are now currently out of the money. Hopefully the market has overreacted, but a six figure loss on paper isn't great in retirement. 

My son's wedding gift has been downgraded to a toaster.

By the time I return, the football season will be over, the NBA and NHL seasons will be almost over, and we'll have some MLB data to take a look at so for sports betting updates check back in a month or so. Other life events mean that betting won't be top of my agenda for a while, but good luck to those of you for whom it is. 

Country Roads, Eggs and Baskets

I managed to survive the six-state road trip with my son mentioned in my previous post. After flying into New Orleans, Louisiana and spending a couple of days there we drove to Savannah, Georgia stopping overnight in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, Nashville, Tennessee, Asheville, North Carolina, and Charleston, South Carolina. We were able to catch the College Basketball Championship game between Florida and Houston in Nashville shortly before we were hauled up on stage to sing along to, in my case, Take Me Home, Country Roads and for my son, The Gambler. 

All in all a great trip although it was disturbing that I was regularly the oldest patron in the bar, with another highlight being the announcement somewhere that someone was celebrating their 70th birthday which made me feel quite young. The last photo on the final night in Savannah was taken at 2:36am so I kept up pretty well I feel! 

My Fitbit and Oura metrics took a hit, as did my scales and wallet, but all bar my wallet are slowly returning to normal. 

The financial markets were extremely volatile while we were away and it was one of those trips I returned home from with no idea whether I was up or down, but unfortunately I was down. Tesla was bouncing around all over the place, up more than 23% on Wednesday as we drove through the Hurricane Helene damaged roads into Asheville, and my former company also had a good run which helped to offset some of the broader market losses. 

I met with my Financial Advisor on Monday and was pleased to hear that I've not messed up (yet) although he felt I was a little aggressive on growth stocks and should consider moving some money into dividend stocks, which is something I was already doing and have mentioned here before, but maybe I'm not doing it fast enough for his liking. 

Back to College Basketball and with the season over, we can look at how that Sacred Manuscript systems. The Small Favourites had a 52-55 losing record ATS for a small loss, but when limited to the top six conferences, the record was 9-8 but the totals had a losing 7-10 record. 

The Conference Tournament System fared much better with a 71-66 record, and the NCAA Tournament results were even better at 22-12 making it a profitable season overall. 

The NBA Regular Season has also ended, with the Playoffs starting today. With Road Favourites not performing as expected this season, we're looking at a loss overall but the Totals Systems have been profitable, notably the Overs on High Totals which delivered a 123-110-1 record. More to come when the playoffs are over but I think one lesson might well be not to base too many systems on one parameter, even if it has been a profitable one over the years. Something about 'eggs and baskets' which applies to more than just NBA betting.  

Factors of Seventeen

While it may seem counter-intuitive, one side effect of retirement has been a reduction in the amount of time available for blogging. In my 'working' from home days, it was easy to find time between meetings for some research or blogging, but with no such constraints these days I'm spending more of my time out of the house.

However, the blog did mark its 17th anniversary a few days ago, and has recently been selected "as one of the Top 100 Sports Betting Blogs on the web".  

While I claim on Twitter to be the "Author of the world's number one sports trading blog Green All Over", the assertion is made with "tongue-firmly-in-cheek" and while I should perhaps be disappointed that I only rank at number 34 in this list, in all seriousness it's quite inspiring to be noticed, and with the added bonus that 34 is a Fibonacci number.

The blog is accurately described as:

an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me.

I'm a little concerned that Daily Betting Blog from my old friend Steve makes the list at number 59 despite not having posted since 2021, but who am I to question the criteria used to determine the list? 

As others have noted, it's not easy coming up with content after this long, and while I have no plans to stop blogging, it's clear that as life is changing for me, it's perhaps not the priority it once was. 

Later this week I'm off to New Orleans for a ten day road trip across the United States with my son, a final father / son road trip before he becomes a married man in May, a month that will not be focused on betting but on family and trying to keep up with a younger generation on the stag weekend. My ability to drink and recover is not what it used to be. Actually, the drinking part is fine, but at 68 it's the recovery that now takes so much longer. 

I just now realised that I have been blogging for 25% of my life!

To sports and the 2025 MLB season started for the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers a little earlier than most teams with two games in Tokyo, both won by the Dodgers, but for most teams the season started last Thursday.

The College Basketball season is reaching its conclusion with the NCAA tournament to decide the National Champions down to its last four teams. It's rather more boring than usual with few surprises, and a Final Four of all number one seeds (each of the four regions is seeded).  

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this has only happened once before, in 2008.

The Sacred Manuscript system for this tournament currently has an impressive 22-12 record ATS, although in the Conference Tournaments, the system was only slightly profitable with a 71-66 record. 

The NBA regular season is also winding down with the playoffs starting in mid-April. Overall it hasn't been the best of seasons with Road Favourites having their worst season since 1998. 

It's better news in the NHL which is also in the final stage of its regular season, with the core system having an official ROI of 4.3%, and the Embarrassed and Rested system up 13.6% - numbers that are easily beatable. The "Tough Guys" system hasn't fared so well, with a 28-29 record so far and an ROI of -8.5%.

February Flops

February wasn't the best of months. Sports betting saw a miniscule 0.7% return, which at least was positive, but overall the month ranked as the 194th best in nominal terms out of the 197 since I started tracking, and the 184th best in percentage terms, which is a more positive way of saying that the month was one of the worst ever. 

Tesla lost 27.6% in the month, and is currently down 33% YTD, while Bitcoin lost 17.6% in February and is down 2.8% YTD. 

I did mention in the January summary that: 

As a new retiree, I'm still getting used to the new world of no salary, but if returns on investments could be like January all the time, I'll be a happy man.

Along with being a retiree comes the experience of having gone through a few roller-coaster rides in my investment career, and I'm well aware that it can be a bumpy road. Tesla will be interesting. The CEO has closely (to put it mildly) aligned himself with the current administration, which is not usually a great idea for a CEO, and leading the DOGE effort can't be anything but a distraction from running Tesla. 

With Tesla importing around 25% of their components including some from China, a tariffs war is not going to be helpful. Then there is the issue of the Elon Musk "brand" hurting demand for Teslas in Europe (a 26% drop in sales in February and likely a bigger drop when March's numbers are released) plus the competition in China and Asia from BYD and Tesla is looking like a sell. 

I reduced my position slightly at $433.63 on 17th January which was a good move, but then I bought the shares back on the 23rd at $411.75 which wasn't a good move, given that I could buy them back today at around $263.  

As I've mentioned before, most of my money is invested in low cost broad index funds with these individual share holdings just me playing with money I can afford to lose, although I'd prefer it didn't come to that. I'm planning to continue holding Tesla for now, given that I'm playing with house money after getting in back in 2017.

In the Premier League last season, backing the draw in Big 6 matches was a profitable strategy with an ROI of 104% from the 30 matches, but so far this season hasn't been as profitable with a loss of 10% after the 22 matches played so far. 

The broader strategy of simply opposing Home teams in Big 6 matches rather than target the unpredictable Draw does continue to be lucrative though, with last season's 24% ROI up slightly to 30% this season. Sunday sees Manchester United play Arsenal. 

Half-Term Report

It's half-term for the arena sports of NHL and NBA in the USA and as promised here is the half-time review of how the systems in the Sacred Manuscript have fared do far. 

The NHL broke-up first and aren't back until the weekend, while the NBA has a shorter break with play resuming tonight (Wednesday) with the regular season ending in less than two months on April 13th. 

In the NHL, the first basic system is off to a great start with an ROI of 10.9%, with the Puck Line bets with an even more impressive 32.2%. 

I've included the Over/Under for these matches because the Under shows a big edge so far this season. Historically, Unders have a slight edge winning at 53.8%, but the increase this season is interesting. 

For the more selective system the results are a little disappointing, but still profitable and the Unders trend here is even stronger: 

In theory, and certainly over the longer term, these more selective bets will have a higher ROI, but the reduced volume means that variance is a factor in the short term, and 15 nets is very much short term. 

For the second system the results are not as good. Long term (i.e. since 2006) the ROI on these are 8.2% and 15.1% but so far this season we are down 22.7% (from 60 selections) and 2.9% for the more selective system although this has only had 13 selections to date.

The third main system is down 11.5% (from 40 selections) with the more selective offshoot up 49%, which sounds more exciting than it is given that there has literally only been a handful of selections so far. Again, Unders at 59.5% are coming in at a higher rate than expected this season.

Moving to the NBA and the results are so far very disappointing. Most of the Spread systems are based on the premise that certain Away teams are often value, but this season the winning percentage (46.4%) is the lowest since records began in 1995.

This basic system currently has an ROI of -9.4% from 334 selections and it's not much comfort that factoring in the previous result for both teams this into a 12.1% ROI since this is just 54 selections. 

The Totals systems are at least performing decently so far, with the 'Overs on High Totals' system hitting at 55.5% while the 'Alpha Unders' has a losing 28-29 record to date, but in the hunt to be profitable at least. 

College Basketball doesn't have a mid-season break, and selections are few and far between in the earlier part of the season, but so far the three systems are a combined 9-9 with the end-of-season tournaments when we get really busy.

At least my bet on the Superbowl was profitable even if I didn't get the best value by waiting until kick-off. 

Fixes, Breaks, Investments and Oct '23 v Jan '25

As many of you will know, sports betting has been on the rise in the US ever since the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act which made it illegal outside of Nevada was overturned in 2018 as a violation of states’ rights.

Since then, individual states have one by one legalized in-person sports betting with the ball set rolling by Delaware just a month after the legal decision, quickly realizing the financial benefits of legal sports betting.

According to Forbes, Americans wagered $119.84 billion on sports in 2023, which represented an annual increase of 27.5%.

Along with this increase in sports betting has come an increase in people associated with sports getting themselves in trouble. Last April, Jontay Porter (age 24) became the first active player to be banned (for life) from the NBA for gambling since 1954.

Just last week it was revealed that Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier is under investigation for allegedly "altering his performance" during a March 2023 game, and today we read that:

"Accounts connected with a gambling ring that is under federal investigation for its participation in two NBA betting cases have been tied to "unusual wagering activity" on at least three men's college basketball programs this season. The three schools -- North Carolina A&T, Mississippi Valley State and Eastern Michigan -- were all reportedly bet against by the gambling ring and flagged by betting integrity monitors at various points this season, according to ESPN.

North Carolina A&T recently suspended three basketball players -- including the top two scorers on the season for "violating team rules" last week -- though it's unclear if the indefinite suspensions are tied to the betting case.

The same accounts linked in the probe were also involved in suspicious betting activity that placed large wagers on prop bets involving former Toronto Raptors forward Jontay Porter during the 2023-24 season and former Hornets guard Terry Rozier in 2023, ESPN reports.     

In baseball, one of the best - at least in terms of calling balls and strikes correctly - umpires Pat Hoberg has been fired  by MLB for "gambling violations." 

It's disappointing, but not really an unexpected byproduct of the huge increase in interest in betting. It happened here in England when spread betting became popular in the 1990s and elite players such as Matt Le Tissier were tempted into trying to fix things such as the timing of the first throw-in. 

In my opinion, the more players on a team, the higher their compensation, and the higher the profile of the match, the lower the risk is that a bet on something macro such as the final score will be impacted. 

Tennis, golf, snooker, darts etc. and it only takes one individual to make a big difference to the final outcome, and that could be due to illness, mood, motivation rather than betting related.

The end of January means just the one NFL game remaining, the Philadelphia Eagles looking to stop the Kansas City Chiefs (-1) from becoming the first team to win three consecutive Superbowls. 

With the mid-season breaks for the NBA and NHL coming up in a few days, it makes sense to review those seasons so far at that time. 

At the start of the year, I didn't recommend a few stocks, but if you disregarded my suggestion, you wouldn't be complaining too much. I wrote:

These aren't recommendations, but for the record they are AbbVie ($ABBV), Applied Materials ($AMAT), Amazon ($AMZN), Alibaba ($BABA), Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY), Salesforce ($CRM), Alphabet ($GOOG), NVIDIA ($NVDA), Palantir ($PLTR), Thermo Fisher Scientific ($TMO), UnitedHealth ($UNH) and VeriSign ($VRSN). For crypto I'm now in on Dogecoin as I mentioned back in November.

My two regrets are not investing more, and adding that last sentence. Dogecoin has not had a good month, but overall these numbers are very good.

Palantir is the standout, and Wayward Lad will be happy about that although maybe not so happy about halving his stake!

Tesla is down on the year, but overall it was a good start to the year. As a new retiree, I'm still getting used to the new world of no salary, but if returns on investments could be like January all the time, I'll be a happy man.

In the same post, I also mentioned my target of dropping a few pounds, and again, this is probably not of interest to anyone but myself. I wrote:

Back to my health / weight, and while some of the gain is from building more muscle and focusing on weight training during the latter part of 2024, I do need to get back on track with my calories. I have two weddings, a school reunion (50th), and a climb up Helvellyn coming up and an expensive (for me) suit purchased when I was 11 1/2 stone (162 lbs) which I need to fit into (for the weddings, not the climb up Helvellyn!).

Fortunately I know how to do it, but it's just rather slow and not the most fun with alcohol a big factor.

While exercise is very beneficial in lots of ways, for losing weight (by which I mean fat) it's far less important than calories ingested which has a correlation to wight loss of about 88%.

Fewer than 2100 calories a day, and the weight falls off. Simple. Another Dry January will get the year kick-started.

Another Dry January did just that. I actually noticed that my starting weight in October 2023 was exactly the same as that for January, and decided to try to match or surpass my habits from that month as it was a 'Sober October', it was also a 31 day month, and I dropped almost 18lbs.

My October 2023 / January 2025 comparison:

The numbers are daily of course, except for the totals lost which were very close, even though with more time on my hands these days, I was a little more active than before.

One other difference is that although the starting weights were identical, my body composition wasn't. 

I've been adding strength training to my routine (my son tells me that as I approach old age, this is a must) so there was less fat to lose this year than 15 months ago, so with less weight (i.e. fat) to lose and more calories burned, the similar results are explained. I also bought a Fitbit a couple of days ago, another of my son's suggestions, so I'll have more metrics to play with moving forward. 

The Rest Is Current

There might be only three games left in the 2024 NFL season, but the NHL and NBA seasons are a little more than halfway through their regular seasons, even if their all-star games are still a couple of weeks away.

I mentioned 'bye' weeks in my previous post and while the NHL and NBA schedules are quite different, there are differences regarding how rested one team is compared to another. It's interesting that of the five NHL systems in the Sacred Manuscript, the three that factor in this parameter are the three that are in profit, whereas the two that don't are currently down for the season.

One basic system has a 24-18 record, but when applying the 'rest' factor improves to 8-1. 

The one system that was a late addition to the manuscript thanks to Thomas is currently negative, but once again, if 'rest' is taken into account, the results turn positive with an 18-19 losing record turning into a 4-1 winning record.

In my haste to add this system to the document, I failed to look at the impact of this additional qualifier, a miss that will be fixed moving forward.

You could actually do far worse this season than simply back teams that are better rested than their opponent which has an ROI of 7.0% and a P/L of 37.51 units from 352 bets. This using Killer Sports' data which can almost always be improved upon when it comes to prices. 

However, unless there is some significant change to the scheduling, this is likely to be a blip in the statistics since no other season in the past comes close. 

In the NBA, which shares a similar schedule with the NHL, better rested teams have a slight advantage this season with a win percentage of 52%, but historically this hasn't been an area where an edge has existed except for some totals systems. Or I've just not found them yet! 

Resting On Their Laurels

I've written before about the market overvaluing rested higher-seeded teams in playoffs, for example the MLB, the National League (the English Football fifth tier, not MLB's National League) and of course the NFL, which completed its Divisional Playoff Round where this 'feature' is present.

The rested teams this season were the Detroit Lions in the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC. Both played on Saturday with the Lions favoured by 8.5 points and the Chiefs by 9.5 points playing against the Washington Commanders and the Houston Texans respectively, and neither covered the spread, with the Lions actually losing the game. 

Since the NFL moved to this playoff format in the 2021 season, the favourite is just 2-6 ATS, and eliminated three times from the eight games so far. 

This is a small sample of course, but rested teams have been a feature of the NFL playoffs since 2001 and the numbers since then are 38-46-2 ATS with 26 of the 86 teams eliminated. 

Hopefully some of you remembered this idea and took advantage.  With just two selections a year this is not included in the Sacred Manuscript, but then I do include the National League system which only generates six a season which seems a little inconsistent. 

The College Football season ended last night with favoured Ohio State covering the spread against Notre Dame, but for me, the post season interest was more in how the new 12 team format would play out.

Similar to the NFL, four teams were given byes to the Quarter-Finals and all four lost their matches straight up which looks promising. 

One big difference is that all these games are all played at a neutral venue, and the nature of College Football is that not all four teams on a bye were favourites, (actually none were), but it's something to keep an eye on as the format becomes more established and we get more data.    

NFL 2024 - Year of the Favourite, and Overs

With 19 full years of betting profit and loss totals now complete, here's the annual, or somewhat annual as I think I missed this much anticipated update last year, look at how the actuals compare with the expected in regard to Benford's Law.

With a 99.8% correlation it's pretty close, although as in 2023 still a little untidy at the bottom with the 9 remaining unexpectedly higher than both 7 and 8. I'm probably not going to lose any sleep over it. 

Nor will I lose any sleep over my bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars +3 on Sunday which was settled as a Push after they lost by 3 points in overtime, which in US sports counts. 

The Killer Sports line was +3.5 so it will count as a Win in the 'official' records, although it was the only one of three selections to win so the basic Small Road 'Dogs have a second consecutive losing season finishing with a 24-30 record. 

It's only the fourth losing season since 2004 and the more selective Division version at 19-15 had a winning season and it's now 11 years since this one had a losing record. 

The totals had the reverse record of 15-19 with Overs having its best season in all regular season matches since 2010, and it's third highest success rate in the 26 year history of the Killer Sports database. 

My gut feeling is that the standard of kicking and rule changes may be factors here, but something to look at in the off season.

The non-Divisional Small Road 'Dogs were unable to overcome the season long headwind that resulted in Favourites having their best season since 2005 both Straight Up (SU) at 71.9% and Against The Spread (ATS) at 53.4%. 

Some of the Totals Systems were profitable with the Prime Time System recording a 29-26-1 record, the non-Conference version a 12-7-1 record, and the 'Off-a-Bye Week' systems had a combined 50% record at 8-8 so we were down the vig there.

I'm not sure if it is an issue just for me, but I am no longer able to access the Gimmethedog site so the official CFL numbers aren't available. It's a rather niche market I suspect, so no one really cares, but a little frustrating.

Overall the 2024 American Football season numbers look like this - underwhelming for sure, but it does feel like it could have been a lot worse. 

For perspective, the numbers since the systems began are: