Watford Gap

Further to the Perfect Storm post yesterday, which had us reaching for our hankies, I dug a little deeper and found that, using Pinnacle's prices, there were 19 Football League teams starting at odds-on over the weekend.

All seven Premier League teams won (Everton 1.39, Chelsea 1.63, Manchester United 1.58, Southampton 1.85, Tottenham Hotspur 1.38, Manchester City 1.67 and Liverpool 1.64 - a 25.03 accumulator), as did the five teams in League One (11.71) and one (Chesterfield 1.88) in League Two.

The Championship had six teams starting at odds-on, and only Watford (1.83) failed to win with the five others winning at 1.98, 1.48, 1.79, 1.93 and 1.85.

Quite a remarkable weekend, and Arsenal go off at around 1.6 tonight, with Rubicon, Fedslam and Forza Fizzer all hoping to see Arsenal become the second team of the weekend to fail at odds-on.

The trend was limited to England and Scotland. The Bundesliga was on its winter break, but odds-on teams failed to win in the other major leagues - AC Milan at 1.74, Monaco 1.93, Lille 1.5 and Real Betis 1.8. Villareal and Internazionale should both be odds-on tonight.

The three Scottish Premier League teams starting at odds-on also won this weekend - Aberdeen 1.83, Motherwell 1.5 and St Johnstone at 1.88.

Perfect Storm

From Coral's Simon Clare today:

British bookmakers have suffered their heaviest ever losses on football this weekend after nearly every popular team won

British bookmakers have suffered their heaviest losses ever on football this weekend, estimated at over £25 million, due to what has been described as a ‘perfect storm’ in terms of football results.

Simon Clare, Coral spokesman, explained, “The football results on Saturday were absolutely shocking for bookmakers. Fourteen of the top fifteen best backed selections all won yesterday and by this morning thousands of small stakes punters across Britain had landed winning accumulators paying £500 or more.”

“Coral had fifty customers winning £2,000 or more for stakes of between £1 and £20 on football accumulators, but we knew there would be many more accumulators running on to Manchester City and Liverpool this afternoon. We were praying for some respite today but the perfect storm continued, with City and Liverpool both winning, and, based on our losses, the UK betting industry will have lost over £25 million in 48 hours”, said Clare.

“These are the biggest losses that the betting industry has suffered since Frankie Dettori rode seven winners in an afternoon at Ascot in September 1996, and it’s not even over yet as there will be many more accumulators still running on to Arsenal tomorrow night,” added Clare.

One customer that is representative of hundreds more across Britain this weekend, is John Sinclair from Acklington, Northumberland. John, 31 years old, placed a £2 accumulator bet on Coral’s website with eighteen selections and all eighteen selections won netting him a return of £40,600.

John Sinclair, said this afternoon, “It was my birthday on Saturday and I couldn’t have dreamed of a better present. We’ve just had our second baby and thanks to this amazing win I will be able to pay off some of my mortgage and other debts and make life more comfortable. To be honest I’m still in total shock”.

“The only positive, and it’s a small one for bookmakers, is that the vast majority of customers that have won this weekend are our most loyal, regular football customers who place these small stakes accumulators week in week out and will continue to do so now for many years to come. Even a £25 million cloud has a very small silver lining”, concluded Clare.

* Top 15 Selections on Accumulators with Coral on Saturday
Everton
Tottenham
Leyton Orient
Blackburn
Southampton
Cardiff
Brentford
Burnley
Man Utd
Wigan
Rotherham
MK Dons
Rangers
Chesterfield
Huddersfield

A Bettor Class Of Subscriber

Omar Chaudhuri of the 5 Added Minutes blog is conducting a survey to determine which Premier League clubs are the most, and the least, popular. 

While I had no trouble selecting my top team of course, had this survey been completed last season my list would be quite a lot different. The problem with answering this season is that I am influenced by the presence of my own team, and thus teams that are survival rivals are harshly treated. For instance I have for a long time had a soft spot for Norwich City, but this season not so much. I really would like them to go down and fill one of those drop-zone spots. Other relegation contenders also suffer, with Manchester United ending up almost in mid-table as a result. Do I really prefer corporate United to friendly Fulham? No, but this season I have to make an exception. Anyway, it's an interesting exercise and if you have a few spare minutes why not try it? If enough people take part, the results might be quite interesting.

In my last post, I wrote about Skeeve and his staggered double bet spanning Thursday night and Saturday. As expected, the second leg made another appearance, and since the game is now in the books I can safely reveal that it was Southport to beat Hyde United who were in a new double along with Bromley (v Eastbourne Borough). With the latter game postponed due to a waterlogged pitch, the bet became a single on Southport, but unfortunately for Skeeve and followers, Hyde picked up just their fourth point of the season, and came within 12 minutes of their first win. Something of a Jekyll and - oh, never mind.

Anyway, Skeeve's update was mildly amusing. Rather than 'hide', in anticipation of of a deluge of abusive emails, Skeeve pre-emptively noted that he was well aware of the results etc, and that hate mail really doesn't change anything, and then came this paragraph:

There we go - the first hate-mail has just hit my inbox. "Really starting to lose my patience"; "getting very ridiculous"; "I am scared every Friday"; "you are by far the most inconsistent tipster"; "don't know what to say, as nothing will help"... So the usual stuff. I'm not sure if you realise it, but e-mails like that don't help. Not in theory, not in practice. All they do is make the guy you're paying so that he could focus on a small market he now knows more about than the betting industry feel even worse after a bad day at the office. That and yes, you get to release some of the frustration you feel. Glad to be of service. But when you're working as hard as I do all week just to see all the invested points gone (sometimes a team will have an off day, sometimes they'll concede a silly goal and sometimes it's woodwork instead of a goal that turns a +5 point profit into a -4 point loss), it can't possibly feel good. You feel that lack of fairness, the near-philosophical stupidity of a hard week's work producing nothing but financial loss, which is obviously the exact opposite of what a man should get after working that hard for the whole week. It's a strange job and I think I've adapted well to most bizarre aspects of it, but sending an angry e-mail after a losing day is something I will never understand. Yes, a third of the betting bank is temporarily gone. Also, it's January 11, not May 11.

I probably shouldn't say that I found it mildly amusing, because for Skeeve and his subscribers, it certainly isn't, but what I do find strange is why anyone feels the need to vent in this way. I lost money myself on these selections this week, but I understand that not all weeks will be winning weeks, and my stake size was such that I will still have a house after any loss. Football betting, however specialised, is not that easy, and it is totally unrealistic to expect that anyone or any service can make profits each and every week. For crying out loud, Skeeve is one of the best out there, and the only service (other than yours truly) that is showing a profit on the season in the FTL. If you don't feel he has an edge, then stop following his selections, keep your money in your wallet next season and develop your own edge on your own time.

As of right now, Skeeve's Official results have him up 6.44 points on level stakes from 51 bets (an ROI of 12.63%, which is second best in the FTL). His FTL modified selections (i.e. level stakes, no doubles, and handicap bets are lays of the opponent) are up 8.15 points from 66 bets (ROI 12,35%).  Those results are not too shabby at all, and you only have to look at last week's FTL table to see how difficult it is to make a profit from football betting.

I can honestly say that in the three seasons I have been running my part-time XX Draws (and more) service, I have not had one abusive email, and trust me, there have been some bad days. Note 'days' though, not 'seasons'. When you're looking for draws, it's a statistical certainty that there will be long losing runs, but I do make that clear in my prospectus which may well put off all but the more savvy investors. That's probably a good thing.

Skeeve and Football Elite (Matt has also been on the receiving end of abuse this season) may attract more of a 'get-rich-quick' crowd, who want wins every week and don't fully understand the nature of betting or have the right disposition for it. I don't know about Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting Account members, but with the frankly awful results they have had this season to date, it would be interesting to know how they have reacted. Ian Erskine has written on this topic many times too.

Do Skeeve and Matt receive a torrent of praise after a good week? I think I know the answer. As I have written before, if you have an edge, or are following someone you believe has an edge, then:

To get worked up over individual bets, is as unproductive as a casino manager worrying over the outcomes of individual pulls of the slot machines.

I might also mention in this post that I have actually been on the receiving end of a couple of very generous bonus gifts (strangely both of an alcoholic nature) from Scott and Steve of Daily25, so there are some good people out there. One point that Steve raises in his latest post is this:

For all the shit I give Skeeve and FB Elite, they are fair in their recorded odds, which makes me trust their services a lot more then these others.

That's certainly a good point. With anyone in the FTL being measured against Pinnacle's prices, it is often the case that Skeeve's 'Official' recorded price is bettered in the FTL Official (Pinnacle) price.

And now for something completely different - Quiz time.

Only one semi professional club has ever won a Football League championship.

Name them. Winner receives XX Draws (and more) through the end of this season.

Double Trouble

A rare venture into midweek action for Skeeve last night, although with Forest Green Rovers being held to a 1-1 draw by Hereford United, he may well be wishing he'd stuck to usual routine. I must admit that I am not familiar with why Skeeve usually skips midweek matches, but I have noticed the selections are usually weekend matches.

I hope I'm not giving any service secrets away when I say that this game was the first leg of a double, with the second leg being played on Saturday. I'm not a big fan of multiples as I have written before, and I am even more puzzled by the use of them when the selections are not playing simultaneously.

In this case, the double is already dead, but the option of backing the second selection remains open. Similarly, had the first leg won, backed as a single you would still have the option of placing an increased stake single bet on the second selection if that second bet is still value. Team news (more important in the lower echelons of league football) between Thursday and Saturday could always render the second leg bet poor value.

Here are some thoughts on betting in multiples from 'The Mathematician':

Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum.

Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet.

Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% !

Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.

It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option.

Behind The Numbers

Three weeks of selections from the FTL entrants are updated and as always, while I have done my best to ensure total accuracy, I am human and errors are always possible. Please let me know if you see any.

As we head into the second half of the season, here are the entries in profit, now limited (in the interests of clarity and ease of update) to those eligible for prizes or professional services official results:

The big mover here is The Football Analyst who has moved into profit and trimmed his bounty liability to just £125 with only five candidates to catch.

Webbo moved up five places and into profit with a gain of 6.36 points, while Fedslam leapfrogged Skeeve to take the lead in the race for the £250 first prize after making 3.96 points. Skeeve had a quiet holiday making 0.74 points from six selections.

My prize ineligible Cassini Value Selections lead the table on strike rate, and stay third adding 2.02 points with three winners from four selections.

Hofs Hackers made 4.71 points from 23 selections to stay third in the money race, while Jamie A takes over in fourth place from Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster.

The XX Draws finally move into profit, although with just one draw in the last twelve matches, the green is smaller than it was at the turn of the year which ended with a hot spell of 15 draws from 29 selections.

Next come the entries that are in the red, but not by much:

The Bundeslayga system moved up to 11th, Fairfranco and Graham C were both inactive, and the XX Draws Under bets made a small profit over three weeks but dropped three places.

The final image shows the entries down by double figures. Some surprise names in this group perhaps, including professional services Football Elite and Premier Betting.

Forza Fizzer had a nightmare holiday with three winners from 22 selections, and while Neil leads the table in the number of selections made, the approach perhaps not coincidentally leaves him currently rock bottom.

Scatter Gun made 18 points from the 30 selections since the last update, and elevates himself out of the relegation zone. Muphy's Law lost 14.7 points from 40 matches, and Rubicon lost 12.74 from 38.
Premier Betting made 3.03 points from 22 selections although for once his official bets would have returned a higher profit being up by 7.59 on 33 selections. Both move up two places at the expense of Rubicon and Murphy's Law.

Back to the professionals, and here in one image are their results so far:

Although Football Elite ended the holiday period with two winners, overall the service had a poor time, and it is apparent from both Matt's emails and other comments around the blog world that subscriber patience with the service is running out after a second consecutive poor season. Here is one heavy-hitting subscriber's opinion:

FB Elite continues its horrendous run losing another $3,000 this week. Not even getting close to a win. Will need a miracle run for anyone to be signing up again for the service next season.

And also this previously:

May as well start with the Soccer and with what is probably the worst week ever for Football Elite. 9 losses and 1 push ($9,000 loss). It looks like Matt has received some abuse for the results this week if his email is anything to go off. I’m really pissed at myself. I was going to stop following at the end of last season as the signs were there that any edge might have been gone, but decided to go another season and halved my stakes. I really should have just stopped.

Matt concedes the possibility of the edge being lost in his last update, admitting that "However things change in football and in betting".  By way of justification that the edge remains, Matt then writes:

Average odds of the sort of sides we back are no different now than at any point in the last 15 years (a touch higher actually because of better market competition now than a few years ago) so the decision is are these sort of sides going to win less than they have previously in the future?

Matt perhaps means this as a rhetorical question, but the evidence suggests that the type of sides Matt selects are indeed winning less than they have previously. Or more specifically, the teams he opposes are losing less than they have previously. As Matt himself says, things change in football and in betting, and while it is not impossible, it seems unlikely that a basic market inefficiency would persist for seven plus seasons.

The total profit quoted since Day 1 Live is certainly impressive:

Total Since Day 1 Live (Aug 2006 – present) = + 184.06 pts (13.5% ROI)

but this total includes ante-post bets which generated more than half (37) of the 2006-07 season's 60.2 points profit, 25.5 of 2007-08's 62.26 points profit, and 9 points of profit in 2008-09 which muddies the value waters and complicates things a little. 

As best as I can tell, the basic match bets over the four seasons 2006-10 generated 105.87 points of profit, while the three seasons 2010-13 made a combined 0.41 points in profit. With this season currently significantly down, it is highly likely that the last four seasons will result in a net loss on the individual match bets and I have to say that I agree with Steve that it does appear the edge that was present in the early days has been eradicated.

Over in the NFL, John Walsh's tips are also having a torrid time this season. Here are his results since my last update:

His NHL selections are performing much better though:

An interesting change in strategy over the last three bets with a rare bet on the Totals, as well as a move towards backing the tie. 

2013 Most Read Posts

For no particular reason other than it is now 2014, here are the top five most Green All Over read posts of 2013.

Number one was More Omelettes - No particular theme to this general post, but probably popular for either a mention of Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting Account Bet selection strategy or for the post's exposing NBA Tips whose two 'experts' thought that there were either 1,283 or 1,222 games in a regular NBA season - there are in fact 1,230.

This theory gains credibility, when the number two most read post is Rose-ier Betting Results which highlighted more than a few accounting irregularities with the good people of NBA Tips.

In the number three post, Defining Moment, Peter Nordsted's strategy of putting all, or at least more than one of, his eggs in one basket was looked at, and again NBA Tips was mentioned, along with Mark Iverson's Soccer In Play app.

Number four was a fairly mundane FTL update, with a mention of Ian Holloway doing the opposite of BIRGing, something that perhaps was a tell that all was not well in the dressing room and that he would soon be off.

Fifth most popular was the A Tangled Webb post on Peter Webb's comment that in some games "you should have struggled to lose money if you were trading" and the problems of leaving a comment on his blog.

The all-time leader remains the Free Betting Systems post, and before you all request them from me, I do not have them any more, followed by A Betfair Story, which is one of those posts where most of the content was written by someone else. Hmm. 

Bath Time

After something of a whirlwind couple of weeks involving stops in locations as diverse as London, New York, Manchester, Bath and Weymouth, to name but a few, visiting family and friends, it is back to normal although I am not sure I am as rested as I should be.

It's rather embarrassing that as an Englishman, I had never before visited Bath, and only did so this time at the behest of my American wife, but it is a wonderful city and if you haven't visited, I recommend it. The Roman baths are quite an historical treasure of course, but the highlight was tripping over a pub in the city named Crystal Palace which I felt obliged to visit. It would have been rude not to.

Updating the FTL sponsored by TFA with two weeks worth of data took several hours yesterday, but the end is in sight. Fortunately the Cup matches in England and France, and the break in Germany meant a lower number of matches this weekend, but Spain returned to action as did Serie A with several games scheduled for tomorrow which is a public holiday in Italy as they celebrate the Epiphany. Don't we all?

It wasn't just the FTL updates that took up most of this weekend, but sad bastard that I am, I keep other spreadsheets too which all needed to be updated. 2013 wasn't the strongest of years for my Betfair account, which is the whole intent of the Super Premium Charge I suppose, and sports trading is taking a lesser role in life as other opportunities and activities take precedence. The end of March this year marks the tenth anniversary of my return to betting, and perhaps 10 years is enough. I can't say I missed the action during my self-imposed break, unlike the majority of sports investment bloggers who start the New Year refreshed and raring to go, and confident that a change of year will mean an epiphany and change in fortune. It won't. You still need that edge, and you still need discipline.

The latest FTL table is no doubt much anticipated, and while I would normally wait for the completion of the weekend matches, which means Monday's matches, here are a few highlights from the past couple of weeks.

The Football Analyst has moved into positive territory, which is not good news for bounty hunters, but good news for the well-respected Graeme and his service. Webbo also had a good festive period with Boxing Day generating a whopping 20 points in profit as he found seven winners from the ten Premier League games played that day including Sunderland (11.08) at Everton.

Scatter Gun has also had a good end to the year, with three consecutive profitable rounds including one of 10.6 points when 7 of the 10 matches ended 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2.

Not so successful this holiday season was Neil, who looks likely to drop into last place. Forza Fizzer has also hit a brick wall with 19 selections generating just two winners for a loss of 12 points and a steep fall into the red.

For the professionals, it has also been a tough time for Matt's Football Elite. Of his last 23 completed selections, just three have been winners.

Skeeve has made a small profit since the last update, and Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster has also been profitable. His Premier Betting account service is still deep in the red, although the losses have been trimmed a little over the holiday.

As for my own efforts, the XX Draws are back into profit even if there are no more winners today or tomorrow. The Bundeslayga system made a small profit on the last round of football in Germany, and the Cassini Value selections are also up at the time of writing. Two winners from three over the holiday, and a game to come tomorrow.

Oh What a Night

Almost a year ago, I wrote this, and it is time for the 2013 version:

Green All Over is all over for another calendar year, as I set sail for some family time where finding time to blog and invest will not be a priority. My parents are now even more "well into their 80s", still kicking, but a little less vigorously as each year passes. In addition, late December 1963, made famous by the Four Seasons, saw the arrival of my sister into the world, and thus she reaches the half-century mark in a few days. I can only imagine how that landmark must feel, ahem.

For those of you in the FTL (sponsored by TFA), keep the emails coming, and I shall update the numbers upon my return to normality early next year, normality referring to my routine rather than my mental state, which I am told is anything BUT normal.

So a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all of you, and I look forward to provoking, teasing, irritating, entertaining, boring, educating, infuriating and (perhaps) amusing you in 2014.

Table Updates 18.Dec

The currently profitable entries in the FTL (sponsored by TFA) after last weekend's matches are:

The big gainer of the week was Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster, which made 8.84 points and moved up eight places and into the money. Fedslam moved up a couple of spots, Cassini's Value Selections dropped a place, and the big loser at the top was Jamie A who slipped from fifth to ninth. Leader Emp was inactive.

The middle of the table, those down, but by less than double digits, are:

The winners here were my XX Draws which moved up seven places, and Fairfranco who moved up six places. It was a nightmare weekend for Matt at Football Elite with nine losses from ten selections and his best result being money back on a Draw No Bet. The frustrations of Matt were evident in his Monday update email, with some subscribers apparently not too happy. Punters' Friend Neil dropped six places and Webbo four places.

The basement dwellers, those down by double digits are notable for the presence of professionals The Football Analyst and Premier Betting. The 'top' two here are actually several points clear of the "Final Four".

There is still a long way to go in the season of course, but to see The Football Analyst down in 19th place as we reach Xmas is probably a surprise to many. Premier Betting's Official entry slipped to the bottom of the table as Scatter Gun took a second week off.

The prize money situation is currently:

1. Skeeve ( £250) 
2. Fedlam (£125)
3. Hofs Hackers (£75) 
4. Drawmaster (£50)

The Football Analyst's "Bounty" liability is £325, with 13 eligible entries currently ahead of him.

Over in the NFL, John Walsh's woes continued this weekend losing another 2.47 points.

On the ice, it's a different matter altogether, with his fine run continuing:

Draw Convergence

After sending out my XX Draws email on Friday, I was initially rather concerned to receive a reply from Peter Nordsted saying that my selections were almost identical to his own. As followers of his Account Bets will know, heading into the weekend Peter's Official bets are down 22.54 points on the season, a -17.34% ROI, and to think that my selections were similar was alarming. Fortunately, a re-reading of the email made it clear that Peter's comment referred to a comparison of my draw selections with his own Drawmaster selections, and my heart rate returned to normal upon this realisation.

Fortunately for both of us, this convergence appears, so far at least, to be justified. Of the games played to date, Drawmaster has hit five winners from nine selections, while the XX Draws have hit five from eleven selections. Matches in my list but not Peter's were Friday night's Montpellier v St Etienne which finished 0-1, and any binary result is pleasing on some level, and Ajaccio v Lorient, which at 1-2 was not so pleasing, Almeria v Espanyol (a perfect 0-0 draw) and the Aston Villa v Manchester United 0-3. Peter had the Hull City v Stoke City game in which I had the value on Hull City with my price on the Tigers at 2.04 but available at ~2.32. It wasn't to be. There are still more games to be played, including the in-progress Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool game which has just gone 0-3 and looks highly unlikely to help either of us.

I mentioned Peter's Account bets going into the weekend were down 22.54 points, but coming out of this weekend they are -33.54 points, and falling into last place after all eleven selections this weekend lost. His FTL selections dropped 5 points to -20.56 points, with the reduced losses due to eliminating Half-time bets and consolidating bets on Unders or Overs into one. As I have said before, if there is value on either of these bets, there is nothing to be gained by backing in more than one of the 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 etc. goal markets. Just find where your risk tolerance is best suited, and stick with it.

It wasn't a good weekend for the rest of the Professionals. Football Elite had ten selections, of which nine lost and one was a push.

Skeeve had one double bet, but neither Kidderminster Harriers (v Alfreton Town) or Southend United (@ Torquay United) could win.

The Football Analyst's fared best of the pros with seven selections for two winners and five losers and a (probably) small loss although the official numbers aren't yet available.

For the second consecutive week, Scatter Gun was idle, and no selections this week from Forza Fizzer or leader Emp.

An update later when the numbers are all updated.

Retarded Markets

 A couple more comments on the fixing discussion. Emp wrote:

Cassini is dead right. Especially about this sort of thing being proof of "good faith" amongst fixers.

Secondly, as Hawkins book notes, our markets are very robust and we don't allow bets on retarded trivia like "player x to be booked" or "number of passes made by player z to player y" and stuff like that. Asian markets focus on the main action, which is necessarily tougher to fix.

While Peter added this:

Has Ellis never heard of bookings markets or does he assume everyone bets with Ladbrokes and their £2 limits. I've never had problems getting relatively large bets thru the bookings markets in the past and I'm sure others haven't either due to the two way trade the spread firms used to take.

It's been shown plenty of times in the past with match fixing that very little 'trade' ever comes thru to the UK bookmakers and is usually centered around the illegal Asian betting markets where pretty much any bet can be accommodated.

It takes a very naive view to imagine players are paid to get a card where the perpetrators have no way of cashing in, but then again we'll always have people like Ellis and Sports Trading Life to fill the gap.

While I'm not sure the official, or politically correct, term for fringe / novelty / side markets is 'retarded', I do tend to agree with the sentiment. I joked about Betfair having 'approximately 972 markets' for a top football game, but I make it 81 with a quick count on Betfair's Manchester City v Arsenal game this weekend. 81 markets seems a little excessive with plenty of overlap, and a day before the match, just 8 of these markets on the world's leading exchange have seen more than four figures traded. 

Several markets have seen absolutely nothing traded, and one can't help but wonder if Betfair wouldn't be better served by focusing interest on the serious markets. A rough and ready calculation shows that about 92% of the money already traded on this match was on the Match Odds market - with £267k. Next market in liquidity? Correct Score with £7k, followed by the Draw No Bet with £5.8k. Not a scientific study by any means, and I actually expected the Under 2.5 market to be higher than its fifth place and £2k traded, but it does show where most of the money and interest is, and it is not in "retarded" markets.

For the edification of Ellis, there are actually quite a few markets related to cards offered by Betfair on this game- six in fact, with a grand total of £191 traded as I write, all of it on the "Sending Off?" market. Whether or not other markets, whether legal or illegal, offer more bets I have no idea, and unless I become a referee, it is highly unlikely that I will ever be interested. 

Interesting that Emp says "Asian markets focus on the main action", while Peter claims that "pretty much any bet can be accommodated in the illegal markets there".  

Any bet in terms of size, or any bet as in "will Player X get a yellow card in the nth minute?" 

Confusion Fixed

Ellis Rayner has an opinion (albeit a wrong one) on the spot/match-fixing story and my post yesterday:

I think you and Sports Trading have missed the point. This story is bullshit, you cannot, major finals aside, bet on any random player to be yellow carded, whether during a match or in a timed window.

You say, or at least imply, you don't bet on things where inside knowledge, of which you have none, could play a part. Yet you are happy to make comments about markets (which don't exist) about which you have zero knowledge!

While the exact details of he alleged fixing are not yet publicly known, I haven't read any suggestion that the alleged spot-fixing was to allow anyone to necessarily profit from a "bet on any random player to be yellow carded", and nor did I say that was the case. It's nonsense. Even Betfair with their 972 (approximately) markets on a top level football match don't have this one!

So while I, and others, seriously doubt that this is the case, I am struggling to find where in my post I made a comment about a (probably non-existent) market of which I (by definition) could have zero knowledge.

And quite frankly, as long-time readers of this blog will know, if I have zero knowledge of something, it means it doesn't exist. What do I know about god, for example? Nothing. 

What I actually wrote was that "cards affect markets", and if there is any doubt about this, the importance of a red can be inferred by the fact that Betfair suspend trading if a red card looks possible, and clears any bets if a red is confirmed. 

I think Ellis, and indeed Sport Trading Life, have missed the point, which is that if you know a team will collect yellow or red cards, that knowledge gives you an edge in markets which actually do exist. 

If you read the articles and seriously thought the fixer was profiting from betting on "any random player to be yellow carded, whether during a match or in a timed window" you should probably quit gambling. Indeed, it is quite possible that the fixer was simply proving to others his ability to 'buy' the player in question, and use that to his advantage later. Ellis' interpretation is way too simplistic I'm afraid. 

For the record though, yes, I am happy to comment on markets that do exist, and I am also happy to confirm that I make no comments about non-existent markets.

Here's more on the affair from even more of an expert than myself:

As Ed Hawkins, author of a gripping book on the scale of the problem in cricket (Bookie Gambler Fixer Spy), has pointed out, there is no way of wagering large sums of money on outcomes such as a yellow or red card on the legal betting markets in Britain. All are tracked by the major bookmakers and, increasingly, by monitoring firms on behalf of the biggest sports.

Any substantial bet of more than, say, £200 would immediately arouse suspicion and could lead to the market being pulled. Nor is there any evidence that it is possible to place bets on yellow or red cards in the $500bn grey and illegal market in Asia and the Far East.

At least Peter understood my point:

To suggest match fixing at whatever level has no effect on the outcome is laughable and shows their knowledge of betting. Sports Trading Life is just one of those blogs hoping to make it's money via affiliate and click thru money. I can't imagine anyone takes a blind bit of notice of the crap they usually post.

For them it's all about key words hoping for new visitors, I doubt even they read what they've written :)

Sensible Advice

Sports Tradng Life have a post about the recent match-fixing scandal, and has a quite different take on the subject than I do. The post basically suggests that it is 'only' spot-fixing, not match-fixing:

So far it seems like it is just players fixing yellow cards which does not really influence the overall result of the match. Unless you punt on the “Shown a card” market then this should not really affect you in any way.

Well, that's OK then. Boys will be boys. Punching someone repeatedly in the groin for no apparent reason is OK. 

"Does not really influence the overall result of the match?" Are you kidding me?

Of course cards affect markets and how players play the rest of the game. If they didn't, there'd be little point in having them! In the event of a yellow, the player is on a final warning, and thus needs to be extra careful to avoid a second one, and in the case of a red, his team are at a disadvantage. The impact of cards can vary of course. A yellow card late in stoppage time is one thing, a red card in the first minute is quite another.

The post continues:

To fix the result of a match you would need several players to all be in on it and while there are some players that might need the money you can trust that the majority do not.

Spot fixing is another kettle of fish and something that can easily be fixed but these will usually be only things that can not affect the result. If you are sensible you should not be getting involved in such markets unless you had inside information anyway.

If you stick to the highest level of any sport you punt on you do also lower your chances of any corruption. At the highest level, it is much less likely you will find players who need the money to such an extent that they will cheat to get it. The other main reason you should only punt on the highest level of any sport is the consistency of the players. This is much better from a punting perspective and you should only really be punting on the lower levels if you have inside information.

To sum up, unless something comes out where we discover a match result or a total number of goals has been fixed in a top level match then there really should be nothing to worry about from a Betfair trading perspective.

"If you are sensible" is as useful a piece of advice as to back the Overs just before a goal is scored. With World Cup Finals matches previously the subject of concerns about fixing (2006), and recent claims that some 2014 World Cup Finals games were to be targeted (one can reasonably guess the country involved), might the suggestion to be "sensible" mean that you limit your betting to the quadrennial World Cup Final game? 

League One and Championship matches are not the Romanian Third Division South (if there even is such a league), but many (most) traders see them as being above the level where one might reasonably expect corruption.

Whatever your interest is in games at these levels, whether you trade these matches, have a punt on them, or just watch them, I think there is plenty to worry about. 

What Betfair traders should be worried about is legislation that outlaws in-play trading on sports as a result of this or other investigations. The Gambling Commission study of 2009 found no reason to ban it at that time, but with more cases like the ongoing one, it's not inconceivable that there might yet be a regulatory change at some point. 

I have never bet on cards for the same reason I don't bet on horse racing - I will never have an edge in these markets, but I do have the occasional punt on lower league and even non-league fixtures, and I want these matches to be played cleanly. I don't see the issue as something to be taken as casually or as lightly as Sports Trading Life

Specialist Subject

An enjoyable review of this very blog found over at Betting Tools. Some highlights:

Many a reader have read the first blog post up to the present day and found it to be one of the most educational and valuable betting resources on the internet.

Cassini is a true student of the betting game and there’s very little he doesn’t know about his specialist subject.

Cassini has a very witty and dry sense of humour

Cassini ‘s writing style is authoritative and at times borders on arrogant.

It’s very difficult to come out on top in a heated debate with Cassini but if you do find yourself embroiled in one, stay hydrated.

In the interest of full disclosure, the site is owned and operated by Webbo, an FTL entrant who, after at one time being down 13.73 points is now in profit after five consecutive profitable rounds.  Brian also runs his own Tipster Table, and it looks a lot more professional than my amateur spreadsheet!

Tipster Updates 10.Dec

Above is the FTL (sponsored by TFA) after the weekend's results. It's not often the leader doesn't change, but Emp retains first place ahead of Skeeve who is in line for £250. Jamie jumps four places into third place (£150). Cassini's Value Selections remain fourth while Fedslam drops three places to 5th (£75). With an ROI of 6.66%, what the devil is he playing at?  

Other big climbers were Football Elite who moved up three places and the Bundeslayga selections who moved up four places. Fairfranco was up two places while the notable fallers were my XX Draws (down four places) and Murphy's Law (down three places). Down two places were Hofs Hackers (£50) and Graham C. The Football Analyst moved up one place and his bounty liability now stands at £300.  Scatter Gun in 23rd place was idle.

In the NFL, John Walsh had another tough weekend:

but his NHL selections are excellent:

Any Given Sunday

Emp had this to say on my last post:

I'm mildly amused that back the huge underdog blindly is actually a "winning strategy". Probably has to do with punter psychology. I read somewhere that backing anything which goes to 1000 in play (excluding in play horse-race markets with front-running) generated pretty decent returns.

While I don't touch horse-racing, it has long been a strategy of mine in other sports to take advantage of people willing to back at prices that are too short in-play as I have written before. Football prices move predictably, so the strategy doesn't work there, but in true trading sports, it's a long-term winning strategy. 

Watch the price bounce back after a touchdown or after a basketball team goes on a run. Of course this won't work if the touchdown scoring team is up big with little time left, but if the pre-game underdog scores first, greed drives the price too low, before the fear kicks in and the price bounces back. Similarly in basketball, you need enough time left in the game. A run leading to a lead of 20 points with 10 seconds left isn't going to do you much good, but a lead in the teens or even twenties with enough time left is an opportunity. The key is that you don't need the lay to go on to win. You simply need the price to bounce and you can lock in your profit after a tick or two or let it run as your risk tolerance allows. Lay £10,000 at 1.01 (risk £100) and a bounce of one tick to 1.02 allows you plenty of options to lock in a decent profit.

Emp Strikes Back

In my last post, I wrote that:

Whenever there are a couple of ‘surprise’ results such as these, it is natural to think that the key to football betting is to bet the outsider, but while these relatively rare wins unsurprisingly gain attention at the time, as a long-term strategy, it is doomed to failure.

The surprise results in question being the likes of Evian Thonon Gaillard's defeat of Paris St Germain, Sunderland's defeat of Manchester City or Hull City beating Liverpool.

Emp appears to have taken this comment as a dig at him personally, but this was certainly not my intent. My comment was meant to highlight that profitable betting is never as simple as always backing or laying favourites, second favourites, long-shots. In fact, the idea of backing a selection solely because of its price or its price range / band is fundamentally flawed. Essentially you are making your decision based on what other people are doing. A selection should be made because your estimate of its chances of winning exceed those of the market. Trying to reverse-engineer selections based on the prices on offer is counter intuitive.

Hypocrite! I hear you say. What about your Bundeslayga system? Indeed, this is an exception to my 'rule', and one where selections are determined by price range, even if the price range is pretty big! It's proven profitable for several seasons, and used more as a Premium Charge mitigation system than one that will make me rich. Last season, for example, there were 90 selections, and a return of 13.11 points although if you had the time to apply the principles to other favourites in the Big Five European Leagues, you could have made 87 points from 1,340 selections.

Anyway, I digress, and here is what Emp had to say:

While I agree that blindly betting on outsiders is, of course, doomed to fail, I am not sure these sorts of bets are inherently bad. In fact I doubt any sort of price range is an inherently bad one to bet on, though I am not sure if that's what you meant.

In either case, it's hardly the only long-shot I've picked. I did get Reims on a long-shot earlier as well as several winners at 5 or 6 (including Everton in the mid-week). In a league where being at home is such an advantage, the price did seem a bit off on Evian, and as for United, they are actually weaker than Everton according to my system, though that might prompt some laughs.

Before this weekend, I do still have Manchester United higher than Everton in my ratings, although that might be in jeopardy should Everton win at Arsenal tomorrow. 

My comment on backing the outsider may have been written a little hastily. Looking at last season's EPL, and using Pinnacle's prices, backing the outsider in the Match Odds market would have generated 19.01 points of profit. Unfortunately for anyone thinking this is the key to success, Queens Park Rangers win at Chelsea generated 16.1 points in one fell swoop, so the difference between that profit and and the smallest of profits comes down to one goal, and the prior season is similar. With no Pinnacle prices, I used the average prices, and 2011-12 saw a profit of 28.72 points, with the biggest return coming on New Year's Eve when Blackburn Rovers won 3-2 at Manchester United at 22.98 and Aston Villa won 3-1 at Chelsea at 11.78. If you were away and missed that day, your season's returns would be a lot different!  

Dream Wife

You know you are spending too much time on maintaining the FTL (sponsored by TFA) when your dreams include one about Peter Nordsted, who, and I kid you not, flew with his wife to Long Beach in California to meet up and discuss his College Football strategy with me. Why Long Beach, I have no idea, since my familiarity with the city is pretty much limited to attending one wedding on the Queen Mary there about ten years ago. The mind, or at least my mind, works in mysterious ways, and I remember being impressed that Peter could drive so naturally on the ‘wrong’ (right) side of the road, as I sat in the back listening to his ideas. The reason why Peter may have featured in my dreams could be because his midweek account bets did rather well, mostly on the back of Aston Villa’s rather surprising win at Southampton. He selected Villa to lead at half-time as well as full-time, and at prices of 6.5 and 6.0 respectively, these winners helped Peter make a profit of 10.05 points for his service. Still down on the season, but a step in the right direction. Incidentally, Peter’s dream wife – by which I mean Peter’s wife in my dream and not Peter’s ‘dream’ wife, who I am sure is the lady he is currently married to – is not as fierce as Peter implied in his now infamous “having to ring up and tell your wife you lost money” video.

The other big winner in midweek was Emp, returning after a few days off to make 13.04 points, and back to the top of the table, mostly on the back of Evian Thonon Gaillard’s even more rather surprising win at home to Paris St Germain at 10.27. Whenever there are a couple of ‘surprise’ results such as these, it is natural to think that the key to football betting is to bet the outsider, but while these relatively rare wins unsurprisingly gain attention at the time, as a long-term strategy, it is doomed to failure.

The latest FTL table after the midweek games is here, and then it all starts over again with the weekend matches:

Tipster Updates 3.Dec

With Monday night's games completed, the FTL table sponsored by TFA has been updated, and as always let me know if you see any errors and I will double-check and update as necessary.

The big winners were Jamie A, whose honesty and integrity was rewarded with an upward move of nine places after a profit of 7.86 points, and even more so was Punters' Friend Neil who moved up 'only' eight places, but made 15.6 points profit from 28 selections. Jamie moves into the money in 4th place overall, while Neil moves very close to break-even which after being down by 28 points two weeks ago is quite a feat. Football Elite moved up five places after making 2.9 points, and Fedslam's upward move of three places was enough to take over at the top.

There were a few idle this past weekend - Skeeve sat out due to the FA Trophy matches, Emp took a break for the second consecutive week, and Forza Fizzer was resting too.

On the losing side, Graham C and FairFranco both dropped eight places after losses of 4.84 and 6 points respectively, while Hofs Hackers dropped five places from first, but still in the fourth money spot.

The Football Analyst trimmed his bounty liability by £50 after making 2.6 points and moving up one place.

So at the top, the first three are Fedslam, Skeeve and my own Value Selections, while at the bottom is Scatter Gun who dropped 6.6 points. Just out of last place are Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting selections, with his official selections dropping another 1.9 points and his FTL entry making 0.07 points.

The XX Draws are mired in mid-table, with two late goals in Spain at Espanyol (88') and Granada (87') not only seeing the draw win evaporate, but also the Under 2.5 goals. We have some midweek selections though, and a long way to go this season.

Not so long left in the NFL though, and John Walsh is having a disappointing season. I've not tracked previous years, but this one is surely not one of his finest. Here are the results since my last update:

John's NHL picks are still in profit, although treading water a little over the past few days:

And for anyone wondering where the updates for NBA Tips are, I have given up. It was quite time consuming, and after finding 11 errors in the recording of the first 91 bets of the regular season, of which the details were never requested so that they could be corrected, there seems little point. Plus the fact that the bets suggested are often with bookies with whom no serious punter would be able to keep an account for more than ten minutes. I don't imagine many serious investors can get more than 20p on with BetVictor or the like.

John Walsh's prices are usually beatable on the exchanges, and readily available, so the returns can reasonably be expected to be beatable.

600,000

The hits count on this blog has now broken through the 600,000 StatCounter milestone,

although according to Blogger, the total page views all time is actually somewhat higher than that.

More technical types than myself can probably explain the difference - I think someone in the past suggested that certain page views are not recorded by StatCounter - but if the Queen can celebrate two birthdays, I don't see why this King of the betting blogs shouldn't celebrate two counting milestones! Stand by for the PATH 750k celebration.

It's also a new month today, and while I don't do detailed P&Ls because I don't want my readers to fall asleep, November was the second best month of 2013 for me. November is usually a good month, although 2012 was a small disaster. The NFL and NBA are usually solid, and the football last month has been good, if not spectacular. The XX Draws were up slightly, the Unders was up slightly more, and the Cassini Value Selections were up even more. 

Speaking, as I was earlier, of P&L blogs, I don't see so many of these around these days. Admittedly after almost six years of doing this, I don't search for blogs as actively now as I used to, but I don't trip over them like I used to. 

Some of you will be aware that at the end of the last NBA season, I stumbled across the NBA Tips blog, and although as soon as I started following them, their results went downhill, I made a note to keep an eye on them for this season. It was play-off time and those matches can be challenging.

Sadly, a litany of errors in their record-keeping has called their accuracy and attention to detail into question, and their reluctance or failure to correct their errors calls their integrity into question. Some of you may have seen the Twitter exchange as I try to keep them honest, but here is some more background for anyone interested in the details. 

Leaving aside subjective concerns such as the concern over recommending bets in pre-season games, the silliness of 1/4 point bets, or the often immature nature of the Tweets, here are some of the proven and indisputable errors or inaccuracies.

The number of games played each season was incorrect

A posted bet was later adjusted from 1 unit to half a unit after team news meant the bet was bad value

A 2 unit loss was recorded as a 1 unit loss

Winning bets were often recorded at higher prices than advised - 3.6 to 3.8 and 1.72 to 1.85 

A losing bet was posted as a winner 

Try writing the below on your betting slip and getting paid out - the Pacers won by 15 (97-82)

Clearly a loser, and no bookmaker would pay out on the above, but the NBA Tips boys then suggest the bet was for the Half-Time result, a rather important detail that was "missed by accident"

"Full time line was around +12.5 at 1.95"? I did indeed check the lines, and here's a screenshot of my Betfair investment from that game:

That Boylesports would have 12.5 as their line seems unlikely. Using the traditional mathematics that I prefer, I make this claimed line of 12.5 further away from the actual line of 7.5 than the 4.5 point line on the bet was! Bet is a clear loser one might say.

I rest my case, but one final point before I go is that cherry-picking the best price listed is one thing, but not many serious or successful investors can keep accounts with the likes of Bet365. Creative mathematics such as the examples shown above might well turn a sow's ear into a silk purse, but hopefully anyone following their 'results' will maintain a healthy scepticism. Their reluctance to correct the above bet to a loss is one serious concern, but their claim to have resolved the other issues I found (at least nine) seems unlikely as they never asked me where the errors were, is another! These 'errors' are all the more puzzling given that there are two people involved, and another set of eyes should be able to catch all, or at least most, unintentional errors. 

On the other side of the integrity scale, credit goes to FTL entrant Jamie A, who noticed that a game where he had two (both losing) selections was only recorded as a one point loss, and pointed the mistake out to me. Yes, we all make mistakes, but sadly not everyone takes responsibility for them and corrects them.

I'm not sure if I have told this story before or not, but the mother of a good friend of mine back in the 1980s used to enjoy a Saturday flutter on the horses at her local bookmaker in Coulsdon. Back in those days, winnings would be paid out in a small sealed brown envelope, and on one occasion she arrived home after collecting her winnings only to find on opening it that she had been paid out too much. 

She returned to the shop to complain.