Saturday, 8 August 2009

Opening Day 2009-10

Football is back, and whilst I shall only be investing on games NOT involving any promoted / relegated / demoted or heavily financed teams for the first month, I shall be dabbling on games where my CRAP (Cassini Ratings And Performance) ratings suggest value.

Home value selections are:

Crystal Palace 1.99, Preston 2.22, Reading 2.02, Sheffield Wednesday 2.05, Watford 2.15

Brighton 2.04, Bristol Rovers 2.13, MK Dons 1.72, Oldham 1.8, Southend 2.82

Bury 2.15, Lincoln City 2.37

Cambridge 1.84, Oxford 1.78

Southend (v Huddersfield) look very good value at 2.82, but there may well be a good reason why the price is so long. Southend are rated higher, and although Huddersfield finished last season the stronger, current form isn't that current when it's from three months ago! Opening day is always a time for caution, but the above selections will give me an interest at least, and hopefully a profit.

For what it’s worth, my top-rated selections for the Football League and Conference divisions are listed below along with the prices available on the exchanges :

Championship: Sheffield United (11.5) / Plymouth Argyle

League One: Leeds United (4.4) / Hartlepool United

League Two: Bury (13) / Notts County

Conference Premier: Stevenage Borough (10) / Eastbourne Borough or Wrexham

North: Alfreton Town / Hyde United

South: Hampton and Richmond Borough / Worcester City

Notts County are unlikely to struggle due to the summer changes at the club, but they might not do quite as well as the market seems to expect.

It will be interesting to see how long it takes Newcastle to find their feet. I expect them to do well, but often it seems that clubs take a couple of months before they get things going. WBA may well start strongest of the relegated teams.

Other teams I will be watching with interest are the big four in League One (Leeds, Charlton, Norwich and Southampton). League One is usually a competitive division, and all four of these will be big scalps for the lesser teams in that league.

In the Conference I expect Luton to regain their League place, but so does the market so no value there! AFC Wimbledon will not win the league this season, and 18 is too short. A value lay.


Rob The Builder said...

I'd be wary of Cambridge. I believe the club is in a little turmoil ( from reading the local papers last weekend ), the chairman resigned yesterday and their latest management appointment, Martin Ling, resigned last week after 9 days!

Cassini said...

Thanks Rob - this is the trouble with the lower leagues. It's hard to keep up with all the goings on, although now you mention it, I do remember reading that the new manager had quit. Oh well. Only a small punt for a bit of interest so fingers crossed that they don't need a manager!