Tuesday, 4 April 2017

Questions: Simple and Stupid

There has been an interesting, and at times amusing, conversation going on via Twitter which was brought to my attention by @PremiumCharged. 

It features some well known names, Bet Angel ( @Betangel aka Peter Webb), Statistical Trading ( @Statsbet) and "allegedly the worlds biggest punter and high stake professional gambler" Zeljko Ranogajec ( @zeljkoranogajec ).

Bet Angel opens the thread with one of those pointless questions but to his credit, Statistical Trading comes back with a great answer that Peter wasn't expecting, and which immediately puts him on the defensive.

On the back foot, Peter rather clumsily claims to have "made more trading than selling software, one of a tiny few to have done so".

I would suggest that very few have in fact made more from selling betting software than from trading, simply because so few people sell software! Thus just about every one who has made a profit from trading can make that claim!

Then Statman brings up the courses, but apparently these are hardly worth running after expenses and considering he "doesn't own outright" whatever that means. Courses? Software? 

Peter's courses are clearly charitable gifts to the trading community rather than run for financial gain. 

Then Statman, showing uncanny talent as a cross-examiner, asks a simple question - "But surely you pay some kind of Premium Charge on Betfair".

It's a topic Peter has long avoided, and unsurprisingly his response this time is anything but straight: 
I say response, because a straight answer would have been "Yes" or "No", but instead we get waffle about "dynamics" and an expression of disappointment in the Premium Charge which is shared by many of us. 

Peter then tries to position himself as one of the lads, an anti-establishment bad boy, rebel without a clue, claiming:
So from this, we can infer that Peter has previously paid Premium Charges, but the evasive response earlier implies that he no longer does so.

At this point, TrackieDave ( @TracksuitDavid ) chimes in dragging Zeljko into the conversation.

Peter contradicts his earlier avoidance of a direct answer and implied "No" with the statement that "Betfair say there are no special deals" - note that he is not saying this is his personal experience, he is simply repeating the company line. 

Zeljko is somewhat more direct with his reply - commissions are negotiable if you are big enough.

Perhaps Peter isn't the ace trader he claims to be after all? Fearful of being seen as anything resembling an average profitable trader, Peter says "But, but, but, I've done hundreds of millions...":
I'm surprised not to read "millions and billions and twillions" accompanied by a lot of foot stamping, but anyway, here it gets quite hilarious, with Peter asking the worlds biggest punter if he's "ever qualified to pay Premium Charge"!! It's a bit like asking Usain Bolt if he's ever cracked 30 seconds for the 100 metres. 

Course organisers often tell their attendees that there are no stupid questions, but Zeljko puts this one straight into that category: 
"Are you taking the piss?" 

"It's a pretty stupid question if know anything about me at all." 

Classic. And sorry Peter, but whether you call it Premium Charge or Commission, it all amounts to the same thing. If your Premium Charge rate is 50%, as mine is, then I'm paying 50% commission. It doesn't matter if your base rate is 5% or 0% if it gets rounded up to 50% at the end of a profitable week. 

As for Peter's "Are you avoiding a simple question?" reply, the words pot, kettle and black immediately come to mind! 

Anyway, some of the question avoidance, naivete and squirming on show above was very entertaining and thanks to @PremiumCharged for drawing my attention to it. 


Unknown said...

Surely the easiest way to prove your success would be to make available your full lifetime p&l at transaction level for all to slice and dice as they please. Rather than cherry pick the good days/ trades and then spend years defending your ability. What you never see is the end result of any training days in terms of who has actually managed to become a full time professional trader as a result.

James said...

Considering the net worth of BetAngel I can't see how tubs can have made more from trading. If he earns more from trading then why does he bother providing software and "training"? More likely the business is the earner and the trading has dwindled.

There has been a company name change or split from/between/to Optic and BetAngel so we will have to wait for new company figures.

Jamie said...

I've been suspicious of Betfair deals regarding PC for a while. I suspect that software vendors and/or trainers who bring 'x' amount of new users to Betfair surely must have cut a deal. Mr Webb makes out that at one time he has had his accounts suspended. (How you get more than 1 account to start with? I must try that one myself), and in doing so suggests that he has the same sort of relationship with Betfair as us 'normal' users have. That is why he has 'starred' in Betfair promo vids like this https://goo.gl/v952DC and even produced his own videos visiting Betfair HQ like https://goo.gl/5fpw04 where he starts the video saying he is at 'one of his regular haunts'. Mr Berry has also starred in promo vids and sells his own 'tutoring' vids along with being associated with Geeks Toy. He says very little regarding PC also. The same can be applied to Mr Hargraves who does regular courses and is in cahoots with Bet Trader software by Racing traders who openly admits he hasn't, and never will pay PC. His reasons have taken several guises from trading on someone else's behalf to losing on Betfair and winning somewhere else. If they are making money then it quite frankly all stinks and will wind me up even more if and when the day comes when I start paying the amounts of PC the likes of Cassini is paying.

Unknown said...

Some mentors will claim that only 5% of people make profits from sports trading. I would have thought that a good majority must come from those that pay for the knowledge. All I see are beginner traders that are learning their craft and having the odd day of success. Across the board, not 1 person has been highlighted as successfully changing their lifestyle on a permanent basis as a result of sports trading training courses or videos. If I were selling training courses and videos I would be showing potential buyers, on my website, at least 1 of the success stories of how I managed to mentor a novice into the new master trader. So the 5% claim looks massive to me.