Sunday, 2 April 2017

Overrounds and Eclipses

Steve Mullington of Mull It Over commented on my April Fools' Day post, writing:

Power to the people! Long live the Betfair forum.
I hope this was a tongue in cheek comment and that Steve hasn't bought an expensive sports car with his anticipated refund. 

A couple of quality blog posts to comment on, the first being one that was triggered by one of my own posts on the subject of the declining over-round in recent years. it's always good to trigger a conversation that's picked up by other bloggers.   

Church of Betting's Overround Decay post goes into far more detail than my humble post, looking at the over-round in different leagues and in different markets, including the binary over / under markets and Asian Handicaps, and the new 
I stuck with the English Premier League and the ternary Match Odds market purely because accurate SPs from Pinnacle Sports were available in high-volume markets via the excellent Football-Data web site. 

Church of Betting's review is well worth a read. The Internet has clearly been a major influence regarding over-rounds. Horse racing experts will know more than me on this, but I believe twenty or more tears ago, and handicap races would might often see an over-round of 120% or more. 

Odds comparison web sites and (hopefully) better educated punters no longer bet into high over-round markets, and the reduction over the years shows that bookmakers have been forced to adjust. The downside is that to compensate, anyone who looks like they might know what they are doing and seeking out best prices will soon be limited or banned. Cue the rise of the likes of Pinnacle Sports. Exchanges charging 5% or more commission have their advantages, but Pinnacle's 102.04% is better.

The other post that caught my eye was this amusing review by Betfair Pro Trader of an apparently quite dreadful book with the title "Gambler's Dharma: Sports Betting with Vedic Astrology" by Simon Chokoisky.

James makes sure to make his point regarding tennis trading by writing both:
It was worse than reading a vendor website telling me how easy it is for everyone to profit from a zero sum tennis market.
Followed later by:
Rather like a vendor video discussing how easy it is for everyone to profit from a zero sum tennis market.
Anyone would think James isn't a big fan of tennis trading!

I do disagree with James on one point. He writes:
I jumped to the final chapter, titled Avoiding the Pitfalls of Gambling. This sounded more promising. Would I see terms like edge used for the first time? No. All I saw was reference to charity (probably the donation of all my wealth to a needy bookmaker) and the trouble with eclipses, presumably horses are more likely to fall at the first if there is an eclipse.
With all due respect, if the eclipse is solar, the poor horses will be unable to see the fences, so indeed the chances of falls would be much higher.

Free tip: Before betting on horse racing (or zero sum tennis markets) always check that no solar eclipses are due.   

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