Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.
The over-round on English Premier League matches this season based on Pinnacle Sports' Closing Prices averages 102.05% - for Bet365 it is 102.9%, slightly higher than last season's 102.77%, so I'm not sure where the idea that Bet365 are offering 'generous value' comes from. Make no mistake, Bet365 are significantly improved from earlier days, most likely in response to the arrival of Pinnacle whose odds have been published by Mr. Buchdahl from the 2012-13 season.
In 2006-07, Bet365 were able to lay to an over-round of almost 108%, yet by 2013-14 this was a more equitable 102.62%. Interesting that since that season, Bet365's over-round has edged back up, while Pinnacle have basically kept their over-round unchanged.
I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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