Monday, 30 August 2010

Kuchar Falling Star

A decidedly average weekend finally took off on my last action of yesterday. In PGA's ‘The Barclays’, I layed Martin Laird at 1.08 on BETDAQ, while he was 1.1 to back on Betfair, and 25 minutes later, after a sudden death play-off, Matt Kuchar was the winner. The lowest price matched on Betfair was 1.1 and liquidity on BETDAQ for golf isn't too shabby these days, with over £1.7m matched on this event.

Football Elite had a down weekend, with the one Recommended Bet, St Pauli, losing to an 87th minute goal versus TSG Hoffenheim. Their Short-List bets also lost overall with just one winner in Sampdoria at 2.26. Blackpool and Bolton drew, while Blackburn Rovers and Udinese both lost.

While there were some matches that went to form in the top leagues, the Bundesliga defies all logic. Never the most predictable of leagues, of nine matches this weekend, just three favourites won. Beaten at short odds on were Bayern Munich (1.5), Nuremberg (2.0), Schalke 04 (1.41), Wolfsburg (1.64) and Bayer Leverkusen (1.43). 10 Away wins to 7 Home wins, with 1 draw so far.

The English Premier League was better, with just the results at Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland off by much. Manchester United were -3 on the ratings and won by exactly that, and draws were predicted at Aston Villa and Fulham. On for two there.

In France, four draws were expected, with just the one at Bordeaux coming in. Caen couldn’t, losing to two late goals, and Lille at 1.58 failed to beat Nice.

A good early strategy would appear to be ‘lay the favourite’, especially in Germany.

Scott at Sport is for Betting commented that Andrew Black’s measures the impact of players by results. For example, they have this to say about my favourite Italian team:

Cagliari have also failed to make any impact in the transfer market, although the return on loan of striker Robert Acquafresca should be a big boost with the Italian having made a major impact in his last spell here in 2008/09 when he played 26 of their 38 games with a PPG of 1.50 compared to 1.17 without him. If this 28% improvement were applied to their points total from last season it would have them challenging for a Europa Cup spot.
There are some great statistics there, but much of the site’s contents are not free. Any happy or disappointed members out there? The cost appears to be £20 a month for unlimited access. Not too bad, but better, I’m sure, with a referral / Promo Code (hint, hint).

I spent some time looking at the teams who perform significantly better on home soil or away. It’s an interesting list – more teams than I would have expected pick up more points away from home than at home – Crystal Palace, Dundee United, Lazio, Racing Santander, Nancy, Werder Bremen, Wolfsburg and Cologne to name a few of the top teams.

OK, so top teams and Crystal Palace.

Some of the top teams playing far better at home than away are Fulham, St Mirren, Genoa, Udinese, Bari, Mallorca, Atletico Madrid, Espanyol, Villareal, Almeria, Mainz 05 and Borussia Moenchengladbach.

Which brings me neatly to tonight’s Atletico Madrid v Sporting de Gijon tomorrow, and Gijon are not good away. More accurately, Gijon are just not good, but they under-perform on the road. My ratings have Atletico Madrid -1.25 and Atletico Madrid -1,-1.5 has been taken at 2.21. The risk is that Atletico will be a little flat after their heroics on Friday night.

Just two more days to go in a shortened trading August, and for the third consecutive month, it appears my P&L will be in three figures. This happened just four times in the previous three years, so to hit three in a row is unusual. Summer is always quiet, but this is even more quiet than usual. I suppose I could always try cricket, but it’s not a sport that interests me, and after today’s News of the World exclusive, that’s not likely to change.

Things typically pick up in September though, with football becoming more settled, and the NFL getting under way in the US. NFL also stands for Not For Long because once the season starts, it just flies by, but in October the NBA starts up, and then before you know it, another year is in the books and the whole cycle starts over.


Joel said...

G'day. I've added your blog to my blog list, and thought you might want to add mine to yours too. I'll be focusing my bets primarily on Melbourne and Sydney Saturday horse racing.

Richard said...

Good call on the Atletico match, in hindsight that was like giving money away!

But best to be cautious in the early part of the season!