Friday, 27 August 2010

Yes We Caen

Still in August, and so still very little form to go on, but looking ahead to the weekend there are some interesting matches which if we were further into the season, would be worthy of an investment.

The Premier League throws up four teams expected to win by two or more goals, and the prices reflect this. The Elo ratings have Chelsea -3 over Stoke City, and the Asian Handicap at -2.5,-3 is around 2.2. Manchester United are also -3, with Tottenham Hotspur at -2.5. On the Asian Handicap, Spurs -1.5,-2 are 2.0. Liverpool are -2 versus West Bromwich Albion. Favoured by 0.5 goals are Wolverhampton Wanderers (2.5) v Newcastle United, and Bolton Wanderers (2.22) v Birmingham City.

In Germany, newly promoted teams Kaiserslautern and St Pauli both play their opening home games. While the former have a tough game tonight versus Bayern Munich, St Pauli are available at 3.35 and in front of their notoriously enthusiastic and politically sound fans, and after a good start last week, they look value to beat Hoffenheim. Other stand-outs are Schalke ’04 v Hannover at 1.41 and Nuremberg v Freiburg at 2.0 and Stuttgart (2.36) versus Dortmund.

La Ligue looks to have a lot of close games, with only Lille (1.58) v Nice and newly promoted Caen (1.97) v Brest expected to win by one goal or more. Caen won their opening home game 3-2 v a strong Lyon team, and this price looks value to me.

In Scotland, Aberdeen at 1.99 v Kilmarnock look value based on the ratings, and in Italy, Serie A gets under way tomorrow, with very little form to go on. As with Spain, just a couple of European games and tonight’s UEFA Super Cup for which Inter Milan look value at 1.98 incidentally. If the form from last season’s Serie A were to carry over, (big if), Bari at 4.4 v Juventus would be tempting. All three promoted teams here start with away games.

And finally, in Spain, La Liga starts with again very little form to go on. The three promoted teams all start with home matches. Hercules are 2.72 v Athletic Bilbao, Levante are 2.08 v Sevilla and Real Sociedad are 3.5 v Villareal.

There was a good comment on adding a good measure of subjectivity to Elo ratings which I will respond to in the next couple of days. Life is a little busy right now.

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