Saturday, 21 August 2010

Prem Away Shorties

My Chelsea -2.5 prediction at Wigan Athletic in the late game today continues to attract comment.

OK. I don't have records but let me know if you can find an Asian handicap price in the whole history of the premier league for an away team at -2.5 evens or lower.
I certainly don't have the records needed either, (as if I would be that nerdy!), but I do know that at 1.27, Chelsea are not even close to being the shortest priced away team in the Premier League all-time.

The shortest I know of was in March 2008, when Manchester United were 1.16 at Derby County (W 1-0). Other shorties away from home that season were United again at 1.22 at Wigan Athletic (W 2-0). Arsenal were 1.25 at Derby that season (W 6-2) and Chelsea were priced at 1.22 (W 2-0) for their visit.

The other point I would make is that the gulf between teams at the top of the Premier League and those at the bottom has never been wider than it is today. There has never been a season with so many 9, 8 and 7 goal thrashings as last year. Even if there hasn't yet been a -2.5 away team, it would be no surprise if there soon were.

With Bayern Munich's 2-1 win over Wolfsbug last night, my Bundesliga picks are 100% for the season...


Mark Iverson said...

I don't normally comment on football but a couple of things to consider:

1) Wigan did beat Chelsea at home last season.
2) To beat the 2.5 goal handicap Chelsea would need to score at least 3 goals. A feat they only achieved 4 out of 19 times away from home last season.

Granted, losing 4-0 to Blackpool was mighty disappointing but Wigan's players should be a little more focussed today.

We'll see :-)

Anonymous said...

According to the max Asian HC price for the Derby MU game you mentioned was MY -2 2.20 which corresponds to a supremacy for MU of very close to 2 goals. Derby were a worse team than anyone currently in the PL.

With home advantage you're really struggling to get up to 2.5.

Mark Iverson said...


Take that smirk off your face :-)

Well played mate.


P.S. Where do I sign-up to the monthly subscription?

Anonymous said...

Why would he be smirking? And why would you be signing up? His only Premier League bet (to win) hasn't taken place and out of all the other possiblities mentioned I can't see anything that's won yet. Unless the comments on Chelsea count as a tip? Not sure.