Sunday, 28 November 2010

Adrenaline Rush

Other than the draw selections, this weekend has been very poor for football investing. I wrote on Friday morning that "Home value picks are a little harder to find this week" and should have just left it at that. Just two winners - Cagliari beat Lecce, Tottenham Hotspur scored late to beat Liverpool. The Brest game was abandoned, and the lay of Bayer Leverkusen came in but aside from that it was all bad news.

I guess it's not just me. Football Elite also appeared to have trouble finding value, with just two Recommended Bets - Auxerre, as I had also identified as value,(lost), and Bologna, whose game was postponed. The appropriately named 'short-list' had just two selections this weekend, and neither of these won either - Stoke City (drew) and Gijon (lost).

Talkbet very generously also puts his predictions up for our consideration, and while his practice of suggesting "back Selection at odds in excess of " is questionable (e.g. Back Kaiserslautern at odds in excess of 3.25 is all very well, but the price on Friday morning was 2.12 - unless I wasn't properly awake which is always possible), I like to compare my picks with his. [In fairness, the opposite is also sometimes true, in that the odds suggested are way shorter than those available - for example Hoffenheim recommended at 2.55 or more were available at 3.5].

He did relatively well with selections including Toulouse at 4.1, Hamburg at 2.38 and Hannover at 2.68.

The highlight this weekend, at least for football, was the return to success (after a couple of sub .33 weeks) for the draw selections. Of the eight mentioned here on Friday, four came in at prices of 3.6, 3.3, 3.45 and 3.25 for a very healthy profit.

I now track seven grades of draws, and the top two grades - the 'strong' and the 'weaker' that I share here are now hitting at 36.84% (2.71) and 36.61% (2.73) in the 'major' leagues.

Some drama for me in the NFL today with the Chicago Bears holding off the Philadelphia Eagles by 31-26. I got into a bit of difficulty (a four figure mess accompanied by some four letter words I might add) on this one, expecting the Eagles to do a little better in the second half than they did in the first, but Chicago scored on the first possession of the half and I was in trouble. With the price dropping too low in my opinion, I put in a £25,000+ lay at 1.04 on the Bears, most of which was taken. The downside of a 1.04 lay is clearly minimal, but it then became a race between the Eagles closing the gap (with me riding their momentum by backing at 1.05 or more), and the clock running down (or worse, the Bears scoring again).

The Bears didn't score again (a good thing) and the Eagles actually got within one score while I was still about £5,000 short (it actually takes time to unload this sort of money on games) but some kind person layed it all at the end, and I somehow emerged from the fray with a three figure profit. I suspect that the shot of adrenaline to my body means that my life expectancy has shortened by a few weeks, but for now, all is good. Seeing a five figure green total next to one of the selections is always a rush, even if they're losing!

I picked up another three figures on the earlier Atlanta Falcons v Green Bay Packers game, but that was relatively painless, and in the NBA, 'my' Utah Jazz easily covered the 5.5 point spread against the improving Los Angeles Clippers. I didn't trade this game though - it was early, and clashed with the above-mentioned NFL games. although I did keep an eye on it to see if they spotted the Clippers a 19 point lead.

One more game to come in the NFL, the San Diego Chargers at the Indianapolis Colts, featuring two of the top QBs of this season. Philip Rivers second in passing yards, and Peyton Manning third. Antonio Gates is back for the Chargers after his suspension and while I shall hold my fire until the game starts, I have the Chargers at 2.26 in my sights as the value here. The Over 51.5 total looks tempting too, at 2.22.


Talkbet said...

Hi Cassini. I backed Kaiserslautern @ 3.5 at 7:45 on Saturday morning so not sure what market you were looking at ?
The odds I suggest to back at are the Bet365 odds that come out as part of the data available to download from, so when I'm back testing systems I use those odds. As you rightly say, 95% of the time you can get far better odds on the exchanges.

Bet-Bet-Win said...

talkbet is right,
lautern was over 3.4 all the time and hoffenheim wasnt at 3.5 ;)
hoffenheim was favourite till like 30 minutes before kickoff

regards, expekter

Talkbet said...

Just checked my Hoffenheim bet and I got them @ 2.72, think Mr Cassini's getting his Hoffs and Kaisers mixed up... :)