Saturday, 19 October 2013

Opinion Divided

With a couple of high-profile exceptions, the FTL entrants tend to focus on the English Premier League. Skeeve and The Football Analyst look lower down the English leagues, while Football Elite and myself look at the big five leagues in Europe, but the majority of focus is on the EPL, and it’s interesting to see the differences in opinion for where the value lies. Not only that, but some matches are pretty much ignored, while others show up in the selections of several people.

This weekend is a typical example. Every game has at least two opinions, with three matches having five – Manchester United v Southampton, Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace v Fulham.

In the Manchester United v Southampton game, opinion is split with two going for the home win, two for the away win and one for the draw.

Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion is similar, with two draws, two away wins and one home.

And the Monday Night clash between London titans Crystal Palace and Fulham sees no one going for the draw, two (including The Football Analyst) picking Palace and three choosing Fulham. I actually have Fulham just three points higher than Palace in the Elo ratings, and a win would likely see Fulham drop to the bottom.

We have a new entry this week, as Murphy’s Law makes his debut, and another £25 in the pot raises the cash prizes for the top four.

A couple of entrants both asked within hours of each other whether they could vary their staking so that they could put more points on their bigger value selections. I’m going to say no for three reasons. 1) This could easily get out of hand if we had no limit, with nothing to stop someone putting a million points on a selection knowing that coming last with minus a million points means as much as with minus twenty. 2) It’s easier to administer the table with a fixed liability on each bet and 3) I don’t want to 'do a Betfair', and move the goal posts while the season is in full swing.

Next season is a way off, but were I to do this again, I might think about the £25 entry fee buying you 25 points, for you to invest as you wish. Lose your points, and you can buy in again perhaps.

Emp was one of the people asking about this, and I’m sure he won’t mind my sharing some of his comments. 

“If you can allow for variable staking, please add double the points for the last two selections, those represent enormous value”
– the two selections being Tottenham Hotspur (@ Aston Villa) and Fulham. He also wanted to double up on Queens Park Rangers (@ Millwall), Bayer Leverkusen (@ Hoffenheim - somewhat fortunate winners last night), and Wolfsburg (@ Augsburg).

Emp concludes with a very confident “Plenty of absolute slam-dunks this weekend, and I’d be amazed if I didn’t win at least 5 points….”

We shall see.

For those interested in the surging TFA's selections, they are:
Forest Green Rovers (@ Grimsby Town)
Welling United (@ FC Halifax Town)
Woking (@ Wrexham)
Colchester United (@ Brentford)
Rotherham United (@ Milton Keynes Dons)
Coventry City (@ Wolverhampton Wanderers)
Plymouth Argyle (@ Hartlepool United)
York City (@ Newport County)
Bury (@ Portsmouth)
Birmingham City (@ Leeds United)
Crystal Palace (v Fulham)

No comments: