Wednesday, 23 October 2013

Trying Times

The trials and tribulations of football betting were present in all their glory this weekend, and last night.

Running down the FTL table in sequence as of last week, we start with last week's leaders, the XX Draws Under 2.5 bets which had a busy weekend with no less than 20 matches. Unfortunately there were too many goals, especially in Italy where there were nine penalties awarded, and only 8 selections finished under 2.5 for a loss on the weekend of 5.1 points. They drop four places to fifth.

The Cassini Value bets continued their good run with two more winners. On Friday night Roma beat Napoli and on Sunday the one Serie A result that did go Cassini's way was Genoa's 2-1 win over Chievo Verona. At Pinnacle's 2.16 and 2.11 the profits on these rise to 6.29 points. Nine winners from eleven selections, and a decent start keeps them in second place.

Skeeve had for selections in play for the FTL entry, but only Cambridge United won, but at odds-on which meant a loss on the weekend. With his official selections (starting the weekend in 14th place) having Cambridge in a university double with Oxford, who failed to win, these fared even worse with all three losing. Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, Skeeve's FTL entry currently leads the race for the first place prize money, in profit for the season by just 1.36 points but in third place overall.

Last week's fourth placed XX Draws had a frustrating weekend, with the 'ghost goal' in the Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen proving to be an inauspicious start, which was followed up by no less than five wins being taken away after the 80th minute. Schalke '04 scored in the 91st minute to win 3-2, Nantes scored in the 87th minute to win 1-0, Atalanta in the 84th to win 2-1, Sampdoria scored a 96th minute penalty to win 2-1, (after Livorno had tied it up in the 92nd minute) and Hellas Verona an 88th minute penalty to win 3-2. And of course when the tie-breaker is the third goal the loss is taken on the Under bets too, and even more annoying when it goes in via the side-netting! In the short term luck is always a factor, but the net result was that of the 20 selections (a record number) only 5 finished level for a 2.30 point loss on the weekend - but still in profit on the season. By 0.02 points! They stay in fourth place.

In fifth place after last week was Emp, who as I wrote earlier had high expectations for the weekend. "Plenty of absolute slam-dunks this weekend, and I'd be amazed if I didn't win at least 5 points....." Well, in the end he went 14-13 from 27 selections and made 5.73 points, enough to climb into first place but more than two months into the season and despite a final warning last week, he has still not come up with the entry fee, so in order to maintain the integrity of the FTL and be fair on everyone his entry will be ineligible for the cash prizes. Just £25 via PayPal for months of entertainment, and maybe some money. Where are the rest of you? The standard is really rather low! Although due to the lack of official prices, European games are ineligible for the FTL, Emp did also manage to select away wins for Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea last night.

Last week's sixth place was Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster, but he too fell victim on a couple of selections to the late goal and dropped four points with all four selections losses.

Debutant Murphy's Law was effectively seventh at the start of play this weekend, but it has to be said that his opening weekend wasn't the best. Six losses from six on Saturday before Tottenham Hotspur's win at Aston Villa started a recovery. Unfortunately it was short lived, and Crystal Palace duly lost on Monday night.

Forza Fizzer in eighth place had one winner (Crewe Alexandra) from five selections for a small loss at the weekend, but one winner from two last night to make back a little, but still a drop to 11th.

My Bundeslayga system had just the one selection, a lay of Eintracht Frankfurt v Nuremberg and one game where the late goal worked in our favour for a small profit. They move up two places to seventh.

Fairfranco was in tenth place and had 16 selections on the weekend with five winners and 0.09 points profit, but he added on nicely with another 1.65 points last night and moves up to sixth not too far back at all.

The Football Analyst didn't have his best weekend with eleven selections, none of first ten won which had me extremely concerned, not because of the losses I incurred, but because the eleventh and final selection was Crystal Palace. The inevitable happened, I lost more money and Crystal Palace missed their chance to gain some momentum in their . Graeme had 10 more selections last night (11 actually but Wycombe's match was abandoned) and one winner, but at a good price (Carlisle United at 6.01) meaning the loss last night was only 4.99 points. With 13 entries ahead of him. Graeme's liability on his bounty promise once again goes up and now sits at £325 as he drops 8 places to 18th.

Twelfth placed Football Elite had two winners from six selections, but for FTL purposes, one of Matt's Draw No Bet selections will also count as win as a lay of Liverpool came in. FE make 1.51 points on the weekend.

Fedslam in 13th lost 1.64 points, while 15th placed Webbo dropped 2 points.

16th placed Scatter Gun fired ten blanks this weekend and describes his pain here.

17th placed Rubicon had a strong weekend finding four EPL winners out of six and making 5.67 points.

18th placed Premier Betting's woes continued with just two winners from seven and a loss for the FTL entry of 3.87 points while the 'official ' bets in 20th place lost just 3.48 points.

19th Punter's Friend won 5 from 19 and lost 7.09 points and drops below Premier Betting into last place.

All in all a tough weekend for most people, and the overall record of -121.27 points combined shows how tough it is to make a steady profit from football. Big guns Football Elite, Skeeve, Premier Betting and The Football Analyst are all struggling so far, but with more than three-quarters of the season still to play, nothing is settled yet. Here's the table:

As always, errors are always a possibility so please let me know if you see anything wrong and I will fix it.

John Walsh is also struggling to make a profit with his NFL selections, with another losing weekend (-3.14 points).
But the NHL is going tremendously right now for him:


Emp said...

Thank goodness for that, I'll top it anyway, I was feeling quite guilty about not being able to arrange the payment. In any case, if my entry ends up out of the hypothetical money, I'll still pay Cassini $25 because it would be hugely unfair to the rest for me to have 4 weeks during which I could have free-rolled everyone.

Anonymous said...

Premier Betting in total are -28 points on their portfolio betting . The results are not on their site . I cannot think why .