Are You Sitting Comfortably?

James is concerned that he now has a reputation for addictions to nicotine, alcohol and calories after I published this quote from my last post:

If I was to pick one issue above all others, I would say obesity and we should do much more about alerting men to the dangers of being overweight. Men are generally in poorer health, he says, with a worse diet. They are more likely to smoke and be alcoholics.

The 'he says' refers to Peter Baker of Men's Health Forum whose quote was pulled from the linked to story on the BBC Magazine site. Apologies to James if any of you thought the quote was from James, who said:

I have enough left of my current online ration to point out that the quote is not mine. Although, as I am the only person mentioned in the article it looks as though the quote is mine.

Thankfully, obesity, smoking and alcoholism are not in my repertoire of failings.

 I thought those three were essential for a writer, but perhaps not.

Paul Dixon, aka Betting Tools, and perhaps best known for his runner-up place in last season's FTL had a post which was both honest and frightening. Take a look, but the gist of it was that Paul purchased a system that uses a Fibonacci staking system. Paul writes:

My usual rule is that if a system is not profitable at level stakes then it is best avoided but, given the high praise and lengthy winning run this system has enjoyed, I decided to run with it.

Not for too long though:

I do not need the anxiety. I do not know what happened to the next runner in the sequence for I stopped looking. Clearly there are bound to be occasions when the ninth in the sequence goes my way – that is a mathematical certainty. But it is also a certainty that there will be nine losing lays in a row again too. I can do without the way that makes me feel as the sequence builds up. I have jettisoned both systems, written off the losses incurred and the initial purchase cost. I realise that I may be turning my back on potential regular small profits in the future, but, do you know what? I feel much better for it.

I've seen nonsense about using Fibonacci staking on Draw selections, and wrote a post about it in February 2013. As Paul says, if a system isn't profitable to level stakes, forget it. If a system is relying on chasing losses, it's not worth a bean. The problem with any progressive staking system (increasing stakes after losses) is that stakes very soon become uncomfortable.

To level stakes, the UMPO system is currently up by 0.62 points after staking 28 points.

Had I been using Martingale staking, UMPO would be up 58.37 points (ROI 19.85%). The only slight problem is that the draw-down was as high as 243.04 points after seven consecutive losses, including the 128 point stake on the sequence ending eighth bet, and I'm not sure many of us would have been sitting comfortably at that moment.

Paul doesn't need the anxiety, and I certainly don't either. If you want to be a gambler, then go for it, but at my age, staking sensibly and not caring about the outcome of any one event is the way to go.

Game 29 tonight. Go Royals! I have one point on.