Saturday 17 October 2015

Open Your Eyes

Unknown Trader is becoming very well known to readers of this blog. He comments on this recent post with:

Thanks a lot for the feedback, I hope to be here for the long haul!
About the Premium Charge, the long-term challenge went from having a trading edge (which was a big one already) to having a trading edge with some particular characteristics.
The reference to "some particular characteristics" is very intriguing, and I'm really not sure what he means by it. What 'characteristics' does an edge have other than being either positive or negative and its size? There are different ways of creating an edge, which is perhaps what is meant, but once found, an edge is really quite mundane. Perhaps UT will be providing a clarification in the near future.

I've mentioned before that one of my early strategies in the late 1980s was to scour the two or three pages of the Racing Post which were typically dedicated to sports betting, and take the top prices, sometimes in multiples, to give myself, if not a positive edge, at least a minimally negative edge.

William Hill sent me an email last week about a dormant account I have with them, and that they would be charging me a fee for the privilege of allowing them to have my funds available, however:
The process to reactivate your account and avoid the charge is simple, just deposit into your player account or make a bet within the next 14 days – it’s that easy!
The idea of paying a dormant account fee didn't appeal, so reverting to a strategy from around thirty years ago, I looked at lumping the balance on a short-priced double. Hill's 1.5561 was actually better than Betfair's 1.4848 (if anyone is unaware, Betfair multiples are not very good value, to put it mildly) so the fate of my William Hill fortune lay in the hands of the Rugby Union gods.
At the time of writing, things are looking good, and the dormant account fee issue is resolved. As I discovered in my Racing Post days, multiple bets with shorties can be quite eye-opening and profitable. A double comprised of two 1.42 shots, and you 'double' your money. It's a shame that Betfair don't have their act together on these. Their singles prices are better than Hill's but magically diminish as soon as you try to parlay them.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Probably my comment sounded misterious but what I was trying to say is that long-term wise you'll be better off if you can translate a pre-existent edge to one which allows more variance to kick in. On other words, you can have a profit of £100 in several ways but you'll be in a better position if you do it by losing £4900 while winning £5000 than by just doing the £100 alone. For someone who is starting what I'm saying is not relevant at all but in the long run it can certainly have an impact.

Of course, having and maintaining an edge is already a big proposition let alone manipulate it to mimic these particular characteristics I was talking about.