Friday 9 September 2016


Sarcasm may have been banned in North Korea, (nuclear bombs are still fine though) but it is alive and well in my Inbox with Tony writing:

While you are being so generous giving out 1-day a year specials, here is one for you.
Unfortunately, as with the All-Star Break System, we will have to wait about 10 months until the next opportunity for Tony's discovery, as the "one-day" in question is July 4th. 

What makes these "one day specials" interesting is that there is some rationale behind them. A finding that says, for example, that the 10th day of May is a good day for backing underdogs is probably irrelevant. If a trend were found for April 15th, now that might be interesting. MLB aficionados will know the meaning of that date.

The NFL season got off to a profitable start, with followers of this blog happy to see their balances higher this morning with a never-in-doubt win on the Under 41.5 market. No "thank you" donations yet, but it's still early and I'm sure they'll be flooding in soon. (Can you tell I don't live in North Korea?).

More seriously, readers will know that I am a big fan of Pinnacle and their business model, but am I the only one who finds their BetShare Tweets annoying? 

For serious bettors, it's of minimal interest that 67% of bets were placed on the Carolina Panthers last night. 

What is of interest is how much money was placed on the two teams, and how the Panthers drifted before kick-off. Not the number of bets on each side.   

What is useful to know is how the line moves relative to the BetShare.  

If two bettors had fun bets of £10 each on the Panthers, but the third puts £100 on the Broncos, the line will move out on the Panthers, despite the fact that they have received 67% of the bets. This is what is interesting. Smart money - i.e. large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates - causing reverse line movement.

If you see anyone promoting their BetShare numbers, less sophisticated bettors could be excused for thinking they are following the money, but in reality, there is a very real chance that the book is trying to balance its books. 

The line doesn't care if 999 people place £1 on one one side and one person places £999 on the other side.

1 comment:

Stewboss said...

I also find their Betshare tweets annoying for the same reason Cassini. More annoying than that are the tweets which proclaim that they never close accounts. Eventually I felt compelled to remind them that they closed thousands of UK based accounts in November 2014. Looks like they are planning a return though and all will be forgiven!