Friday 21 July 2017

Bastad Walkovers and Retirements

Don Pablo asked:

Is this article based on the analysis of singles matches only or both singles, doubles and mixed doubles matches. Clarification will be much appreciated
I didn't realise anyone bet on doubles matches, and I don't know where historical odds for these matches could be found anyway, so to clarify the results are for Singles matches only.

Brian of Betting Tools fame and fortune helped out with the walkover question writing:
Yes most require the 1st set to be completed, others the full match. When I checked at the start of the year there were 2 'first ball served' bookies who would pay out if the match had started but just checked and they both now require the first set to be completed. As far as I know there isn't anyone who pays out for a walkover.
This post on his website gives more details on rules by bookmaker, but as Brian mentions above, rules can change so don't rely on this.

Next time I have a week to spare, I'll run the numbers again excluding Walkovers and First Set retirements. 

Unfortunately, with more than half of the retirements / walkovers favouring the underdog, (for 2015 and 2016), this system isn't as good as it might have first appeared. 

Losing the likes of 14.8 and 13.0 winners (Rome and Bastad 2015) and a green system can soon go red. 

Bastad indeed!

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