Sunday, 7 July 2019

Going To The Dogs After The Break

In the article I referenced yesterday by Brad Allen, he noted that:

Sports Insights has found that blanket-backing favourites had been profitable before and after the break in recent years, although those studies only look at the one game either side.
While 'recent years' isn't specific, looking at the last five seasons, I didn't find this observation to be true.

Certainly blindly backing all favourites in the final game before the All-Star Break is a profitable strategy, +6.7% Money Line, +12.1% Run Line, while the first game after the break sees a profit on the Money Line of 6.7% and on the Run Line of 12.1%*.

* Corrected on 13.Jul.19 

Brad then wrote that:  
It would be interesting to see the results from a whole week before and after if anyone fancies running that…
Well who doesn't like to look at these things? 

Again looking at the last five seasons, the answer is that in the week before the All-Star Break, backing all favourites is profitable, but only slightly with the Money Line +3.48 points from 576 games, while the Run Line is +15.63 points from 575 games.  

Not an ROI to set the pulse racing, but a lot better than the week after the break, when the Money Line is down 22.45 points and the Run Line is down 33.61 points.

So is there a system here backing 'dogs in the week after the All-Star game? 

Blindly backing 'dogs will lose you a little, but there does seem to be an edge in Divisional games, where the Money Line has an ROI from 191 matches of 10.7% and the Run Line is 6.0%.

A final teaser: With a little further refinement, the ROIs from 48 games are 38.2% and 32.6% respectively, and profitable on both the ML and RL every season since 2011.

1 comment:

LoganZ said...

Great article, thanks for sharing!