Sunday, 28 July 2019

Summer Holidays

This will be my last post for a while, as I will be travelling for the next month, a combination of work and pleasure. It's my wife's 10th wedding anniversary, so the trip will include a few days in North Devon to celebrate, as well as time being spent seeing family and quite possibly a football match or two.

The cost of this time away will undoubtedly be some missed profits from baseball betting, but for my long term financial future, it's probably better to keep my wife happy and just accept this cost.

At the time of writing, i.e. before Saturday's games are concluded, the three daily systems I'm following are all nicely in profit.

The T-Bone is officially up around 10% on both the Money Line and the Run Line from 102 matches, but these numbers are on the low side, with the Run Line in particular being recorded at a very beatable price.

The 'official' Run Line price on matches varies considerably, so a little shopping around and you can almost always beat these.

For example, and using just this season's games, a Money Line price of -180 (1.56) has matches where the Run Line is recorded at between -105 (1.95) and -125 (1.8). You should always be looking for the Run Line price reflecting a win probability somewhere around 20% higher than that of the Money Line. For example, -180 / -105 is 20.33%, or -210 / -120 is 19.48%.

For the Overs and Unders Systems, the season to date results are:

July has been excellent so far, with only one daily loss greater than one point and a 26.68 point profit from the last two weeks alone.

For the season to date, the average number of bets per day is a very manageable 3.77 (assuming one bet per T-Bone selection, although I play both the Money Line and the Run Line), and 65.63 points overall from 553 bets, an 11.87% ROI. 

Of the 117 days of baseball, we have been active on 112 days.

35 days have seen 4 selections, 19 days have 3 selections and 16 days have 5 selections. 

Only 18 days have required 6 bets or more, and it usually takes about 5 minutes a day to place all the bets, which is a much more effective use of your time than spending hours watching football matches hoping for an in-play opportunity which is unlikely to give you an edge anyway since either others are watching too and are likely a little more sophisticated, or no one else is interested in which case there is no liquidity.

And with that, it's goodbye from me, and back in a month or so. Stay lucky. 

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