Thursday, 21 July 2022

MLB Half-Term Report

As I've mentioned before, this MLB season saw a significant rule change with probably the biggest difference between the two leagues, i.e. the Designated Hitter (DH) rule, being implemented universally. 

For non-baseball fans, in the past National League (NL) pitchers bat whereas in the American League (AL) their place in the batting line-up is taken by a DH, and this rule now applies to both leagues.

As you would expect, more runs are scored in games played under American League rules (those where the Home team is an American league club) compared with games played under National league rules. Since 2004, and excluding the 2020 Covid season when the DH rule was also applied universally, the numbers are 8.4 in NL parks and 8.8 in AL parks. 

As you might also expect, edges that used to exist on betting Totals have been disrupted, and the Overall numbers are not good for this season:
However, the losses are all for NL games, with AL Totals still showing a profit, albeit of just 0.6% but all things considered, I think sitting out Totals for this season at least is probably the smart decision.

The disruption appears to have impacted the Hot Favourites System also, at least in the National League, but for American League clubs the system remains profitable with an ROI of 0.9%.  

After sizzling for several seasons the T-Bone System, which like many other strategies stopped working in the 2020 Covid season, appears to have been overdone and burned to a crisp as it continues to be a loss maker this season. I'll continue to spend time on this idea updating results, but not any money.   

I've mentioned in the past a couple of trends connected to the All-Star Break, with Favourites good value in their last matches before the break as well as in their first game after. 

Peter commented that:
Harking back to your 16/07/21 post about favs in final game b4 the ASB: 7-5 today not so flash but yesterday went 15-1 ! and Friday 9-5 perhaps the full 3 game series b4 the break is worth a look?

Always good to hear that someone is paying attention, and looking at the three days leading up to the break does show that the strategy is successful for all three days.

My post back then pointed out that:

Certainly blindly backing all favourites in the final game before the All-Star Break is a profitable strategy, +6.7% Money Line, +12.1% Run Line.

Here are the numbers including this year's data: 

Saturday this season was rather unusual with the largest return from all 42 days under examination, but a loss on the Run Line! 

As for backing the Favourites in their first outing AFTER the break, we wait. Here are the numbers up to, and including, last season from way back in 2004:

As for the game itself, the New York Yankees have the best record with a winning percentage of .688 (which most people would write as 68.8%) while the Washington Nationals have the worst record at 0.33. No wonder Juan Soto reportedly turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract extension last week, and will likely be traded. 

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