Quite a few comments in the past few days, and all are positive which is always a plus. Regarding the ongoing Women's Euros Tournament, I wrote on the 10th July that:
So far every odds-on favourite has won, while every game without an odds-on favourite has finished as a Draw.
Of the 24 Group games, 19 had an odds-on favourite of which 16 won for an ROI of 7.9%, while the more open five matches produced four Draws for a meaningless ROI of 173% or 8.65 units.
Interestingly none of the seven longest priced favourites won, so a 'Lay The Favourite' strategy for any team priced at 1.6 or longer would have been worthwhile.
The one result with a 'hot favourite' failing to win was the very last match of the round. Favourites France led from the 1st minute all the way up to the 12th minute of time added on when they conceded a penalty (converted) to Iceland for a 1:1 result. It was Iceland's third 1:1 score from the three group games, but despite being unbeaten in the tournament, Iceland were eliminated.
Leading for 111 minutes and failing to win must be some kind of record!
Prices as short as those you see on the left above are not too exciting, but Larry wrote to say:
Lovely work on the Euro Women's. Round 2 been very profitable. Playing anything above 1.60 as a single and multi betting the real shorties.
Larry's selection of 1.6 as his cut-off appears to be quite prescient, but combining shorties into multiples is a good strategy I like to do myself when possible.
None of you will remember my post from October 2010 when I mentioned my habit of buying the Racing Post back in the 1980s, possibly into the early 90s, but back then I wrote:
When the Racing Post started covering sports betting, I would buy it just for those two pages. I opened several telephone credit accounts with different firms, and would spend my daily train journey to London comparing the odds offered by them, noting down any prices that were out of line with the others, on sports such as football, the NFL, Formula 1, cricket, tennis, Boat Race, snooker, rugby league and union, and politics.
While I didn't mention it back then, I may have done somewhere else here, but one of my habits in those days was to lump short priced favourites together in multiples, exactly the strategy being followed by Larry.
Despite passing my 'A' Level in Pure Maths With Statistics, it was often surprising to me just how rewarding a multiple of those shorties could be with, for example, a treble of three 1.3 shots paying out at 2.2.
Incidentally, that 2010 post mentions the exact moment when I realised that looking at the Draw in certain games might be a strategy worth following, and one category of 'certain games' is that of major tournament elimination matches, which is where we are now in the Women's Euros.
Previous Women's Tournaments haven't been a good environment for Draws overall, at least going back to the 2009 Euros, with an ROI of -2%, but in matches with no odds-on favourite, the ROI is a positive 11%. Quarter-Finals have a 26% ROI, Semi-Finals 9% and Finals 263% (with only one qualifier). The Round of 16 is a loss maker, but of course the Euros don't have a Round of 16 so 'Draw' you're own conclusions.
With no odds-on favourite in yesterday's England v Spain game and I took the Draw at 3.5 and a 1:1 result was an excellent start. The other three Quarter-Finals will all have an odds-on favourite, with Germany and Sweden very short.
Finally. a few of you expressed interest in the 'Sacred Manuscript' mentioned in my last post, with Rob writing:
You’ve previously helped me with some queries regarding your systems which continue to make me a nice return. Thank you for that.
Always nice to hear.
Next post should be a half-time look at the MLB season, as it takes a short break for its annual All-Star Game, won for the ninth consecutive time this year by the American League. At least one reader will be following the once-a-year system coming out of the break.
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