Monday, 3 October 2022

Draws, Lays and Wild Cards

I think we can safely say that tonight's East Midlands Derby between Leicester City and Nottingham Forest will not be a qualifier for the EPL Draw System, which means we had two qualifiers and one winner this weekend for a profit of 1.46 units. The season total now stands at 1.61 units from 12 qualifiers.

In Germany, the Bundeslayga System lost exactly 2.0 units from the ten selections, reducing the season total to 15.5 units from 97 selections.
With almost 4,000 selections, I took a look last week at how various staking methods would have worked out. Because several of these matches take place at the same time or on the same day, my stakes for any one day don't change. How various percentages or flat stakes would have worked starting with a 1,000 unit bank is interesting. 
Sorted by current / maximum bank size, the optimal stake would have been 3.384%, a little higher than my typical 2% - 2.5%. I'll be taking a similar look at the EPL Draw numbers as time permits this week. 

In the NFL, we ended up with five more official selections on Sunday, with three winning straight up. The Bears and Commanders both lost and failed to cover.
The season record is 8-7-1 with currently three possible qualifiers for Week 5, though one is a Thursday night game

In baseball the San Diego Padres qualified for the post-season for the first time since 2006, and just one place remains, to be filled most likely by the Philadelphia Phillies. All the best-of-three Wild Card Series games will be played at the higher seeded club, and these games start on Friday. The Regular Season ends on Wednesday. 

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