Sunday, 16 October 2022

LA's Wild Goose Chase

The MLB playoffs are already more than a half over, and the 'Dogs are having their day especially in the National League where all four series so far have been won by the underdog. 

The San Diego Padres (leading 2:1 in the best-of-five series) gave the Los Angeles Dodgers a 3:0 lead before scoring five in the 7th last night and holding on for another 5:3 win.  

The two lowest seeded clubs (#5 Padres and #6 Philadelphia Phillies) now meet in the best-of-seven NL Championship Series and my wife is rather excited. The last time the Padres made it to the Championship Series was in 1998 and the city has 'goose bumps'. 
Winning more than 100 games in the Regular Season looks good on paper, but means nothing when it comes to a short playoff series.

Only one of three Series Winners in the American League so far have been 'Dogs, but after a three run bottom of the ninth inning for Cleveland, the Guardians lead their best-of-five series 2:1 against the New York Yankees and have a chance to advance today. The Series Winners will play the Houston Astros in the AL Championship Series. 

In playoff games since 2004, (625 matches) the ROI on Underdogs is 2% with the best series games being the third and fourth games, and when the 'Dog is at Home.  

In College Football, I had seven qualifiers for the Small Road 'Dogs System yesterday, five of which won, although at the time of writing Killer Sports seems to have mislaid a few games. 
System Upgrades in Progress We're currently getting our systems back up and running and making improvements along the way!
The luck was on our side yesterday with two selections covering by one point, and USC covering by two thanks to the home team (Utah Utes) going for a two-point conversion instead of kicking the extra-point to tie the game in the last minute. This is a strategy road teams often apply, but not usually home teams so clearly Utah didn't want to give USC the ball with 48 seconds left needing just a Field Goal to win. Anyway, it worked out well for us USC +3.5 investors! Oklahoma State and Rice both lost by 3, but were getting 4 points, and we also had wins with Northern Illinois and Arkansas State. Washington State and North Carolina State were our two losses, and hopefully the official results will reflect the same when they are updated. 

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