Saturday, 28 January 2023

Cursed Profits and 17 Years of Benford

Three winners out of four last weekend for the 'Curse' / Unders selections, although with both rested teams winning their games, 'curse' may be a little too strong a word. Hopefully some of you were along for the ride.

This weekend (Sunday) features the Championship games for the two conferences, with the Philadelphia Eagles at home to the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC and the Kansas City Chiefs v Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC. 

Both home teams are small favourites - the Eagles are currently giving 2.5 points while the Chiefs are giving just 1.5 points and as in the regular season, the value in these games is on the 'dog. 

All-time in playoff games, when the Road 'Dog is getting 3 points or fewer, they are 18-5-2 ATS, and 12-1-1 in the NFC. As always, a caution that these are small sample sizes. 

At 3.4 the Eagles are currently favourites to win the Superbowl in two weeks' time. 

There were also a couple of winners for the 'Close' Draw System in the EPL last weekend, with two of the three selections finishing as Draws, and all three as Under 2.5. These are still down on the season though, by 4.15 units from the 38 selections so far and with no games this weekend, that won't be changing any time soon.

Finally, for those of us who love our numbers, here are the updated numbers for my daily betting profits (and occasional losses) from 2006 through 2022 for Benford's Law
Seventeen years! Anyway, the numbers correlate pretty well, at least for 1 though 7, before they go a little wobbly. 

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