Monday, 16 January 2023

Emotional Market

Although the sample size isn't huge, backing Away (or Road) underdogs in NFL playoff games is historically not the worst idea in the world with a 53.2% winning record against the spread and at least two winners in every season since the data begins in 2001. 

Already the current 2022 season has produced three such winners with the Miami Dolphins, New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens all covering. 

The Dolphins were getting 14 points against the Buffalo Bills, a number that seemed to me was possibly inflated by the emotional support for the Bills which followed the scare with Damar Hamlin a couple of weeks back. 

ESPN reported that:
The Miami Dolphins closed as consensus 14-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, making them the largest underdogs ever in a Wild Card game.

Since 2001 only two teams had been bigger playoff 'dogs, and while the value is usually on the smaller 'dogs, I took a chance that the market may have been wrong on this one.

ESPN continued: 

The game attracted the lopsided action on Buffalo, with the bulk of the money on the heavily-favored Bills minus the points and on the money-line (-1,000).

The Dolphins covering was good for the sportsbooks as well as those of us feeling contrarian about this game and not getting emotional. 

One more Wild Card game to go tonight - Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers  and all five so far have gone Over. 

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