Bundesliga Lays Restored - Partially

In my previous blog post announcing the launch of the 2024-25 Sacred Manuscript, I mentioned that the Bundeslayga Systems had been removed. 

I also mentioned that I had asked subscribers for feedback, and was pleased to receive this comment from Peter who wrote:

I’m surprised to see you ditching the laying of Bundesliga 2 odds-on away favourites.

I keep my stats by calendar year and am showing +44% in 2024, +11.7% in 2023 and +5.4% in 2022.

At this stage, I see no good reason to ditch them.

Peter also suggested I put Page Numbers in the Contents section, which was actually a great suggestion, but one that led me to realise how unfamiliar I am (or was) about Microsoft Word. But I did get there in the end, and the document is all the better for it.

But back to the Bundeslyaga Systems, and the question of whether I should have killed these off, should have killed some of them off, or simply let them all run for a while longer.

There's no correct answer of course, but with the 2024-25 2. Bundesliga season kicking off today, the clock is ticking.

The facts are that we have 12 years of Pinnacle Closing price data, and the total P&L of the four systems (Home and Away Lays in 1. Bundesliga and .2 Bundesliga) is 155.70 units which, from 4,655 matches equates to an ROI of 3.3%.

Unfortunately, three of the past four seasons have seen losses (for a total of -8.12 units) and only a great 2019-20 season keeps the latest 5-year period in the green.  

However, as Peter noted, the results from laying qualifying Away teams in 2. Bundesliga haven't ben too bad - more on those later.

First the results from laying qualifying Home teams in 2. Bundesliga:

The first four seasons had an ROI of 8.7%; the second four of 2.3%; and the most recent four seasons a negative ROI of -1.9%. While I continue to track results, I'm not inclined to put anything other than small 'interest' bets at most on these selections for the time being. The trend isn't positive at all.

When we look at laying Away qualifiers in 2. Bundesliga, the results over the twelve seasons look like this:

The same four season periods here have ROIs of 13.2%, 43.8% and 16.6% respectively, and while the most recent four years is lower than the previous four , it would be hard for it not to be, and 16.6%, albeit from a low number of selections, is a very good return.

My conclusion is that Peter is absolutely right when he says that "at this stage, I see no good reason to ditch them", and the Sacred Manuscript has been updated to reflect this.

Version 1.02 is now at 77 pages with the feedback from Robert regarding one of the MLB systems receiving some care as well as the aforementioned page numbers being added.

Please keep the feedback coming.