Cold Hard Cash BS

I have just finished reading a (free) copy of the Cold Hard Cash (CHC) Betting System, first published in 2004, and what a pile of garbage it is. It consists of 28 pages of poorly written prose, the first 21 of which not only have nothing to do with the system, but are full of mistakes.

Anyone heard of the ‘Martindale’ staking system? Me neither, and that is by no means the only error contained within.

Anyway, the introduction is so painful to read that I can’t bring myself to spend any time on it at all, well, other than to generously point out that he warns readers to be wary of the scams and BS that are out there on the Internet… Oh the irony.

As for the system itself, it’s for football betting. Teams within a division are rated based on last season’s finishing positions from 100 for the bottom team in increments of 100 so that in say the Premier League the top team is rated 2,000.

Here is the meat of the system:

“As teams play each other they effectively bet 10% of their score/rating on the outcome of the game. E.g if Manchester United (score 2000) play Bolton (score 1200) Manchester would risk 200 on the outcome and Bolton 120. The winner of the match takes the 320 points. So if Bolton won their new score/rating would be 1520 and Manchester United would be reduced to 1800”.

“CHC looks for matches where there is at least a 1200 - point advantage to the home team. No matter how strong the advantage of the away team I do not bet on the away win. Partly because I know how I feel after a long car journey, my energy levels are low, I am tired and the last thing I want to do is run around. However, the main reason I don’t bet is, I believe this is always the best opportunity for the underdog to do a bit of giant killing. The home team is in familiar circumstances, the players have their wives, girlfriends, mistresses and family watching and they have thousands of fans cheering them on to vistory!”.

“Expect odds of around 1.5. Be suspicious of odds over 2.2. If the odds are below 1.3 consider using a betting exchange or placing the bet in a double..”

And that is basically it. Back short-priced home favourites! No mention of value at all. Back whether the selection is 1.01 or 2.18 I suppose. No mention of what happens to the ratings when a team draws. All in all a very poor effort. At least if you are going to sell a rubbish system, make it well-written and tart it up a little.

This is actually a simplified version of a system featured in an excellent book called “The Punter’s Revenge” written by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth which I purchased when it was first published back in 1986 just as home computers were becoming commonplace.

Based on the Elo rating system then used in Chess, the book suggested rating teams initially around an average of 1,000, and then adjusting them after each game with the home team ‘risking’ 7% of its rating, and the away team ‘risking’ 5%. In the event of a draw, the two teams would receive back 50% of the ‘risked’ points.

I actually used a modified version of this system quite profitably back in the days of betting shops and fixed odds coupons, but it was a lot of work maintaining those ratings after each match. Admittedly I monitored all 92 league teams for an entire season which may have been a little ambitious in those pre-Internet days, but surely someone out there with a little more talent than me could automate this and publish up-to-date ratings. Thinking about it, if it worked well in the days of fixed odds and bookies, it might be worth a shot today with Betfair.

By the way, if anyone would like to buy the CHC system from me, well - you can't.

But I will e-mail it to you for free...

And Then We Die

What are we trading for? The bottom line is surely “to improve our lives”. My social life for the past two and a half years has by necessity been seriously curtailed, but this has been a price worth paying because I have been able to make a very decent second income from it.

But what good is extra money if you never get a chance to really enjoy it, and drop dead from a heart-attack at the age of 60? Not much really. Life is short, and it’s easy to get caught up in the whirlwind of money-making and miss out on what is really important.

I have been looking at my spreadsheet which I have diligently maintained since January 1, 2006, and of the 905 days since then, I have traded on all but 69 of them. Family vacations and a trip to Germany for the World Cup account for most of those days, so many months I am trading every single day.

Is it worth it? In the short-term, the answer has to be 'yes', but where does it end? The expression ‘make hay while the sun shines’ comes to mind, because whilst for now I am able to make profits, I am well aware that this may not always be so. Markets can change in an instant.

Fortunately, I have a very understanding girlfriend who understands the rewards of what I do, but for many people I imagine this is not the case and relationships are suffering.

For now I shall carry on, but I do need to make a point of exercising regularly. I have noticed my weight start to increase slowly but steadily this year and I’m pretty sure that spending most of my spare time sitting on my arse trading is not the healthiest of lifestyles.

Anyone fancy a friendly challenge to see who can drop the most weight between now and Xmas? I’m at 16 stone 3.8lbs right now. First goal 16 stone. Time for another spreadsheet.

Forza Azzurri

My Italy replica shirt is donned, and the quarter-final with Spain is eagerly awaited. Admittedly influenced by my Italian heritage, I am laying Spain at 2.6, and at 4.7 in the outright winner market, and taking my usual approach of backing the Under 2.5 goals at 1.63. I shall probably only let this bet run for 10 minutes or so, before going Green-All-Over, but the odds do drop quite precipitously in that opening spell so it can be a relatively safe bet. Even with the disaster of an early goal, it would not be unusual to reach half-time with no further goals and be able to get out then.

All three group winners so far have lost, and I don't see why this run shouldn't continue today. Spain have looked impressive so far, but they rested a lot of players in their game against Greece, and that tactic doesn't always pay dividends with returning players a little rusty and losing their touch.

I had a dream about Betfair last night. Sad I know, but I find that after a long day on here, the brain is buzzing with odds and numbers and ideas and just doesn't know when it is time to turn off. Good luck.

Half-Time Update: I layed off the unders bet at 1.42 after 15 minutes, a nice profit for just a few minutes of increased heart rate. At least that's my workout for the day done with! And the Spain match odds bet has been backed back at 2.88. Come on Italy!

Russia - Netherlands

Although my usual strategy for quarter-finals is to back the under 2.5 goals and let it run, I have a feeling that this could be an open game. I'm on the unders for now, but in another ten minutes I shall lay that off (hopefully still 0-0 at 20:00) and hope for goals soon after.

I am still in shock at the finish to yesterday's game. Fortunately I avoided the carnage but I imagine there are a few people looking at significantly diminished balances today. I'm not averse to backing 1.01 shots because I feel that they are often value, but in football it is a dangerous game. I see that some money was put on Turkey at 1000 to win the whole tournament and now are at 15 / 15.5. Well done to someone. There must be a nervous layer right now.

Half-Time Update: £54.04 on unders, £54.00 on overs. Looking like unders right now, but a long way to go yet.

More Euro 2008

The football game of the day for me today is the Sweden - Russia game, and I am expecting a tight game and have gone with the unders. With half-time approaching and a goal by Russia, I shall be laying off at half-time as I quite expect Sweden to push for a goal this second half. The other game, Greece - Spain I am leaving alone for reasons outlined yesterday.

Call Me Roberto (For A Few Days Anyway)

So an Italian win tonight, coupled with Romania failing to win against the impressive looking Dutch, would see Italy advance to the Euro 2008 Quarter-Finals, and as I write this, the second-half is under-way, and Italy and the Netherlands both have one goal leads. From a betting standpoint, I'm always a little wary with these third group games. The first games are usually tight and good for the Unders. The second games tend to be a little more open, and favours the Overs. The third games are tricky - teams don't need to win, (sometimes they don't WANT to win), they rest players - bottom line is that strange things can happen. I backed the Unders in the Italy - France game expecting a tight first half and laid it off at half-time, so I can sit back and enjoy the second half. I left the Netherlands - Romania game alone, though there may have been some 'Dutching' opportunities...

Losing Focus

I seem to lose focus when trading. The pattern seems to be that I get myself into a good position early in an event, before I start making bad decisions and lose some, or all, of the ‘profit’ that I have accumulated.

Notable examples are football and basketball. By half-time I’m sitting pretty (it’s just an expression), but something happens to me in the second half (greed?, tiredness?, over-confidence?, boredom?) and I start making bad decisions until by the end of the game I’m far worse off than if I’d just stopped at half-time.

I’m learning though. In the Czech Republic – Turkey game yesterday, I greened up on the over/under 2.5 goals at half-time and left it alone after that. But then I didn’t learn in the Lakers – Celtics game, which I think was probably down to tiredness. I try to sleep before these middle of the night games, but I suspect it catches up with me, and whilst I’m focused and alert in the early stages, the tiredness kicks in.

Anyway, something to watch and learn from and maybe add to my Rules of Trading. (Coming soon!) Anyone else suffer from this? Comments appreciated.

Finché c' é vita c' é speranza

I have Italian roots. My grandmother was a Cassini, and supposedly I am descended from the famous family of astronomers by that name (although sadly the fortune that they presumably had at one time failed to descend to me which is why I am trading every night trying to build up my own).

Every two years I become Italian, once England are eliminated from the World Cup or the European Championships, which is quite often after two games, if indeed we have qualified in the first place. But this year, I don’t think I’ll bother.

I dated a girl from the Netherlands once, and spent two weeks in Amsterdam chasing her sister (another story) so maybe I should become Dutch. Don't like the shoes too much though, although Heineken is ok.

Then again, I visited Croatia many years back, before it was even called Croatia, and I like the chequered shirt design… Bit too Nazi-ish for my liking though.

Speaking of which, can’t ever see myself becoming German (my Mum would never speak to me again) although I did have a good time there for the 2006 World Cup. At least until the Portugal game which rather rules me out of cheering for the Portuguese.

France? Well, obviously no self-respecting Englishman could contemplate the idea of becoming a Frenchie.

So I guess I’m just a casual observer this year, but then again the Italians always start slowly and a win against France coupled with a Dutch win over Romania and WE’RE through to the quarters!! Avanti Azzurri!!

And the subject? It's an Italian proverb, meaning - "While there is life, there is hope" Something to dwell on as the odds drift away from you.

Mark Reynolds

“Luck has a peculiar habit of favouring those who don't depend on it”

And Lady Luck is very fickle. I’ve written before about how some days you can’t do a thing wrong, and other times you can’t put a foot wrong. Lady Luck was with me late last night. I was playing on the baseball game between the Ney York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks, and had laid the Mets at 1.15 in the 7th inning when they were 3-0 up, hoping that the D’Backs would score a run or two at some point and shift the price a little so that I could go Green All Over. They came up empty in the 7th and 8th, and in the 9th they managed to get two runners in scoring position albeit with two outs. Down to their last strike, and with 1.01 being taken (not laid by me unfortunately), some guy called Mark Reynolds hits a three run homer to tie the game up and make my day. The Mets did go on to win, but I was already green and in bed by that time. (Apologies to non-baseball people – in cricketing terms I guess it was like needing a six off the last ball and getting it!)

Keeping Track

In the year to April 2007, average earnings of full-time male employees were £498 per week, while for women it was £394, according to the Office of National Statistics. [BBC News 19/2/08]

I like numbers. They motivate me. If I am trying to lose weight, I record my weight each day. If I am trying to exercise more, I record the miles run or biked, or the yards swum. If I am trying to cut down on alcohol, I record how many days a month I drink. If I am trying to save money, I record it. It’s the same with investing. I record my daily wins and losses by sport in a giant spreadsheet, and keep track of my average daily profit/loss for the past 10 days, 30 days, year, and my average gain per day since I started. Well, not quite since I started, but once I decided to take this investing seriously. So as a result, I have data for every day since New Year’s Day 2005.

I have daily targets which I try to meet, starting with the first target of recording a profit, and rising to the ultimate target of beating my best ever daily total. In between are targets to beat such as my 10 day daily average, my 30 day daily average, my yearly daily average, and my all-time daily average. And then there’s the ‘average earnings for a full-time person’ target (see above) to beat.

The temptation can be to take risks in an effort to achieve these targets, but I have learned not to force anything, but to await the opportunities which sometimes be like London buses and come along all at once, before vanishing for days. Do many of you out there reading this keep records? Any ideas?

Boring

I have been told (indirectly over on John the Gambler's blog) by ‘poetaster’ that my blog is boring. His comment was “Cassini, your blog is boring- thats why no one ever reads it. You shouldnt offend your one and only reader”, the latter part of the comment being a reference to my teasing John The Gambler about his love for beer. Nothing wrong with liking beer - I’m partial to a pint myself on occasion – I was simply surprised to see ‘Beer’ languishing outside of his top 5.

Anyway, if John is my only reader, then how does 'poo-taster' know that my blog is boring? And why would it have over 4,000 hits since March unless John has nothing better to do all day than read my blog over and over… ok, so maybe thinking about it, that IS a distinct possibility (just kidding John).

So my blog is boring? Well, maybe so. Betting is one of those things in life that is tremendously exciting (not always in a positive way) for the person doing it, but is not quite so exciting to sit and read about. For example, try reading books on trading. They tend to be a little dry to say the least, entry-points, exit strategies, position size etc, yawn, yawn, yawn, so I’m not sure what ‘poo-taster’ is expecting from a blog about gambling.

My intention when I started this was to post every few days about things going on in my gambling world, and try to stimulate some debate about ideas and observations that I have. I guess it’s fair to say that this hasn’t exactly happened. I have had very view comments posted, so the blog falls victim to the vicious circle of no comments, meaning no interest, meaning not much incentive to come up with something new the next day.

So do I give up, continue with the blog as it, make changes to it but continue on a gambling theme, or make changes and discuss wider issues such as “Why there is no God”?

Comments please.

Euro 2008

The second most important tournament in international football got under way this weekend and all four games went to the favourites, and all four finished under 2.5 goals.

I like to back the unders in these tournaments, especially the first round of the group games. I usually take a relatively large position pre-game, and then lay it off as time ticks away. The early goal in the Croatia-Austria game was slightly concerning, but I changed my trousers, kept my nerve, and everything worked out OK.

It always seems that the price on the unders drops too steeply for the first 3 minutes or so, before it stalls for another 5 or 6 minutes. For example in the Germany - Poland game, the unders at the start was 1.89 / 1.90 - after three minutes the price was 1.81/1.82. That's a nice move in three minutes. Strangely, the prices then stalled for five minutes, and then dropped precipitously from 1.8 / 1.81 to 1.67 / 1.68 in two minutes. I need more data, but does anyone have a system that is based on backing the unders and laying it off early in the game? Comments, as always, very welcome.

Full-Time?

The Betfair forum frequently features posts asking "should I go full-time?" and seeking advice. Quite often, these posts are from people who signed up to Betfair in the last few months. Possibly they have got lucky and think their luck will last for ever, or they have a system that has performed well, but more likely they are looking to impress with the implication that by asking the question, they are Mr. Big Shot. Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on the subject.

First off, why trade full-time? Why not trade evenings and weekends? There are plenty of trading opportunities, and a full-time job is not something to give up in a hurry. A job is not just about the paycheck - there are benefits and retirement income to think of, plus most jobs are at least somewhat social in part, and of course most people will be earning a lot more in the future once they have put in the hours (or years).

Why does it matter what other people do? If you have an edge, then you will be able to make trading pay. If you don't, then you are gambling, and the odds will catch up with you sooner or later. Anyone seriously considering full-time trading should be aware that systems don't always work for ever. The market is always changing and edges can disappear overnight. It would be a downer to quit your job on a Friday, start trading full-time on Monday only to find that your system no longer worked. A good trader would need to be able to adapt quickly and have some kind of a backup plan.

For sure, some people do make trading pay, at least for a while, but it is not an easy way to earn a living. I trade part-time, and over the last two years have matched my regular income, but it is stressful enough doing it as a hobby. I can't imagine how stressful it would be if it were my only income source.

I know one guy (see The Experiment listed under other blogs) requested his hours be reduced so that he could spend more time trading, and that might be a reasonable option, but in general, until you have a solid few years of profitable trading behind you, I would be very hesitant to say that full-time was the way to go. There's plenty to be made part-time.

Good Riddance To May

May should have been a good month. My old Mum turned 80, and a couple of Bank Holidays in there should have meant fun and laughter all round. But it was not a good month on the investing front. In fact my first losing month since April 2007, and a £5,599.15 loss to be exact.

Where did it all go wrong? In a word - 'basketball'. In too big on a couple of markets that I should probably have stayed away from, or at least reduced my risk, but as always with losses, learn from mistakes and move forward. I also lost too much on a 'fun' bet on Aussie Rules footy, which came down to the last kick which was missed. NOT my idea of fun.

Some months everything goes for you, and some months nothing seems to. Maybe the gods of gambling took May off for holiday, but I hope they are back for June. Two down months in a row, and the doubts start creeping in, and we're not at home to Mr. Self-Doubter this year. Good luck for June to everyone (anyone?) reading this.

At least my month wasn't as bad as the poor sap who offered Italy at 1000 in their Volleyball game against Japan yesterday. Italy won six points in a row, tied the game up and went on to win.

To Post Or Not To Post?

John The Gambler posted something earlier today which irritated me just a little, probably because I took his comments personally.

He wrote “Why these part-time bloggers even bother is beyond me. If you don't blog everyday give it up, and do us all a favour.”

Could it be because most people have lives John? They go to work, they come home, they relax in a manner (manor if very rich) of their choice (dinner, movies, Betfair, a good book, a few beers, a lover etc.) and then they go to bed (with lover if lucky). Blogging is a part-time hobby for most people, to be done as and when time allows.

And how does not posting anything at all “do us all a favour”? Some of my posts are incredibly thought-provoking and challenging, and surely it is better to post something of substance once a week, than to post daily but say nothing related to the supposed theme of the blog, in John’s case – ‘A Year In The Life Of An Online Gambler’. He closed his online account two months ago!

Incidentally, the definition of a blog is “a website, usually maintained by an individual, with regular entries of commentary, descriptions of events, or other material such as graphics or video.”

Note that the definition states regular entries, not frequent, and certainly no mention of daily.

Perspective

Courtesy of John the Gambler, this blog kinda puts everything into perspective. Next time you think you've had a bad day, remind yourself that you really haven't.

http://baldyblog.freshblogs.co.uk/

Bankroll / Money Management

I have been asked to describe my money / bankroll management techniques. In my reply to the request, I suggested that the answer might be disappointing, because the simple answer is that for the type of investing that I do, it is not possible to manage a bankroll in the same way as it is for ‘system’ type gambling.

To try to explain this further, my style is to look for value. In an earlier post I mentioned a Celtics NBA game against the Sixers where the score was tied with 5:01 left in the game. I saw a chunk of money wanting to back the Celtics at 1.3 and this seemed to me to be a good value lay, so I layed every penny that was available. Had there been £2 trying to back Boston at that price, I would have taken it, and had there been £16,000 there I would have taken it. The key point is that I felt that the price was very good value and with an instantaneous decision to be made (the in-play market waits for no man) I do not have the luxury of time to work out the appropriate stake using the Kelly criterion even if this were possible, which I very much doubt given that whilst similar situations can repeat in basketball, identical situations do not. I do limit myself to losing no more than £5,000 on any single investment by not requesting Betfair to raise my limit, so this does guarantee that no single loss can exceed (currently) 21% of my bankroll. Also, it is rare indeed for me to find a value bet with anywhere close to this amount of money available.

When I offer odds, I tend to stay within the £1,000 to £2,000 risk range, (4.34% - 8.68%) but if the market is liquid and I feel there is a good chance of being matched for more at a value price, then I will offer, or attempt to back with, more than this amount.

So the bottom line is that there is no hard and fast rule for managing my money. If I see or can get value, then I am in for anything up to 21% or so. It all depends on the situation.

My mistake a couple of days ago was to risk £4,000 on a bet that was borderline value. That is too close to gambling for my liking and I will take the loss on the chin, learn the lesson, and put it behind me.

One thing I do seem to be able to do is learn from my mistakes. I started this venture with £100 in March 2004, and by September 10th 2005, had turned this into £21.40, with the balance at over £1,000 in-between. At that point I decided to get serious about it, treat it as a business rather than a hobby, and make it work. Despite the setbacks this week, I feel I am well on the way. I may post a lessons learned / rules to invest by some time.

As always, comments welcome, but please don’t post any links to casino gambling sites. They are not for me.

John The Gambler

I have written previously about the famous 'John The Gambler' but once again he is calling it quits so far as gambling is concerned. He had a well documented bad loss a while ago, although I never did read what the amount was, but in a way that is quite irrelevant. The fact is that however much it was, it was more than John was comfortable losing. 

Since I'm coming off two bad losses myself, I thought I might comment on this. For me, I am usually fairly disciplined, and just made a stupid decision on Sunday to involve myself in a game that I knew I wouldn't be able to see to its conclusion. My daughter is much more important to me, and as my very understanding girlfriend said to me later, in a few months/years I won't recall losing the money, but I will remember seeing my daughter in her show. She's very wise, as well as beautiful.

Yesterday's loss was just one of those losses that I still consider was value, but just didn't work out. What I'm not so happy about is the size of the loss, but I have learned another valuable lesson.

There are other reasons why I am comfortable with my losses, if comfortable is the right word. I funded my Betfair account with £100 back in March 2004 and haven't put in another penny since, so any losses are not directly out of my pocket. The other reason is that I have put together a long run of winning months, and although I am disappointed to see that come to an end, in a way it's a reality check for me not to take winning for granted so all-in-all I shall just take the past two days on the chin and get back on the horse with a solid profit on the Celtics tonight.

And this Betfair lark is also great entertainment for me. This may sound crazy, but the amount of money I win or lose is not so important to me as the mental challenge of finding value, or to put it another way, outwitting someone else who is sitting at home weighing up the odds in his underpants. Poor use of English grammar I know, but quite intentional.

The money is just numbers in an account, so it's easy to lose touch with reality. I would never dream of putting down £400, never mind £4,000 in cash, but numbers on a screen are a little like betting in a casino with chips. It's not really money. Except that it is.

How about a few comments? Like John said in his blog, it gets lonely out here.

http://john2e.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/05/the-final-count.html

So THAT's Why They Call It Gambling

Two bad days on the NBA to report. Sunday, I made the mistake of getting involved in a game knowing that I would only be able to watch the first half and of course got caught on the wrong side of a run by the Celtics who were up by nine at the half. The question was cut my losses and 'red-up' at a loss of £1,846.89 or leave a bet out there in the hopes that it would get hit. I decided to take the loss and of course the Cavaliers came back to within 1 in the fourth quarter which, had I been home, would have meant not only getting out with no loss, but also with a healthy profit. But my mistake for getting involved in the first place.

Now to Monday's loss. Hornets at home in Game 7, down by 10 against the Spurs at half-time, and the Spurs trading at 1.5x. I was quite convinced that the Hornets would make a run at some point, and I guess they did by getting within 3 with 1 minute left in the game, but unfortunately that was too late to allow me to get out of another big loss. £3,885.62 to be precise. All rather depressing really, but that's life. I've had a stellar run of 12 winning months, so if May ends up being a loser, and it will take a minor miracle for it not to, then it's not the end of the world. I hate to think that I was chasing on the second bet, but if I am honest with myself, I was. I do take big positions where I think there is value, but I held on longer than I should have done, so lessons learned, back to basics and onward and upward.

There's Something In My Eye

Congratulations Pompey

It's been a long day today with very little betting. A friend of many years, (I don't have many) over 20 of them, hails from Portsmouth and I have given him much abuse over the years about the fortunes of his local team. So when he invited me to a party to watch the FA Cup Final today, I could hardly say no. Of course his wireless Internet wasn't working, but some things in life are more important than betting. Yes, really.

Not the greatest of games, but finals are usually disappointing since teams are there to win, not to look pretty, but it was great for him to see his team win the cup. Probably a once-in-a-lifetime moment, but one never knows, and I'm sure that like myself, he never seriously thought he would see his team win the Cup. How much more it meant to him than it would have meant to any supporter of the 'Big Four'. Winning gets (almost) as old as losing, (although betting is an exception I guess) but surely even the most fanatical United fan would admit that winning any trophy for the nth time isn't as precious as winning the first or the first in a lifetime.

One sad fact - of the guys at the party, I was the only one who has never seen his team win the Cup. One day. Please God...who just happens to have his own blog - check it out:

http://stuffgodhates.wordpress.com/

All Or Nothing

How fickle the gods of gambling are. After a positive start to my Sunday with a lay of the Over 2.5 goals in the Chelsea - Bolton game (I love those pre-game odds-on Overs bets) my day got steadily worse.

I then lost all the winnings from the above bet when the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim couldn't hold on to a lead, and market illiquidity meant that I was unable to lay my 'value' investment off.

I did admittedly make a small sum on the Utah Jazz - Los Angeles Lakers game, but lost that and much more on the San Antonio Spurs - New Orleans Hornets game when the Spurs just ran away with the game after half-time.

New strategy for the NBA play-offs - back the home team pre-game and go to bed. 14 of 15 conference semis have been won by the home team. Cue a win for the Boston Celtics tonight...

And finally a value bet in the late baseball game between the Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox went pear shaped although the Red Sox did come within a hit of giving me a nice win. They do say it's a game of inches.

And so after twelve consecutive months of profitablity, I am now in the red for May but with 21 days to recover and maintain my streak.

But it does seem to me that there are times when everything you touch turns to gold, or at least green, and other times when nothing you do is right.

NBA Trading - Thoughts

BB’s NBA trading blog I mentioned earlier got me thinking. It’s no secret that successful trading means buy low/sell high, or in Betfair terms, back high/lay low. Of course, this is easier said than done. If you read books on trading, usually written with the financial markets in mind, you will read about entry and exit points. It’s not difficult to devise these for non-financial markets. For example with basketball, you could set a rule that if a game is tied or the pre-game underdog is within ‘x’ number of points at the end of the first quarter, and the price on the pre-game favourite has moved less than ‘y’ percent, then this is a signal to enter the market.

One big difference between highly liquid financial markets and relatively illiquid basketball markets is the inability to set a stop-loss. BB mentioned in one post http://tradethenba.blogspot.com/2008/04/denver-la-game-5.html that he layed the Lakers at 1.17 and had a stop loss at 1.10 should they continue to play well. Personally with a lay at the 1.17 mark, I wouldn’t be too concerned about a stop-loss. The downside is already very limited, but when entering a market at a higher price, the inability to set a stop loss can be expensive. Just look at tight games in the last couple of minutes. The price doesn’t smoothly drop in .01 increments, but plummets from say 20 to 5 to 2.3 to 1.2 with little activity between those points.

A recent example was last night’s game between the Cavaliers and the Wizards. Note that all times and prices are approximate because in the heat of battle I do not have time to record everything. Essentially the situation was that with a minute left, the Cavaliers were up by 5 points and were trading at 1.05 or so. For me this is a great lay opportunity. The last minute in an NBA game can last for an eternity, and if I am ever told by a doctor that I have a minute to live, I am going to request that it is the last minute of a close NBA game.

I digress. Laying at 1.05 meant that the downside was minimal, but the upside was huge. One score by the Wizards, and the price moved nicely out to 1.25 or so. Then the Wizards got a stop, and scored again – now the price was out to 1.7 or so. When the Wizards took the lead with about 3.6 seconds to go, the price on the Cavaliers had shot out to 6.0 or so, and as it turned out, the Wizards ended up winning by that 1 point so for a risk of 50, one could have let the bet run and made 1,000 or backed it back to go Green-All-Over and nicely in profit after the lead was trimmed to 3 or to 1. I should mention that I didn’t manage to lay any of the 1.05 myself, but I have used this strategy in the past to good effect.

Rather than wait until late in the game, my strategy revolves around laying teams after they are on a 6 to 10 point run. Basketball is very much a game of momentum and with the market being driven by fear and greed, it lends itself perfectly to trading. I can’t really reveal my precise method because there’s a substantial subjective element to it. I try to get a feel for the game, and weigh factors like whether it’s the home or the road team that is under-performing, what stage the game is at, the foul situation, which team needs the win more etc.

Basically I look for value. I look to lay a team that in my opinion has been backed too low or vice-versa. It is very seldom that a chart of the prices will show a steady decline down to 1.01. There are always runs within a game and greed means that the price is driven too low, and then when the run is over and the other team starts a come-back, the fear element kicks in and the market moves back.

Comments welcome, please.

Back With A Vengeance

Well, the holiday is over, and it's back to normal. Not too much trading over the last few days, and yesterday saw me drop £614.49 on the Suns who managed to miss at least a dozen free throws and made no less than seven turnovers in the fourth quarter. So a bet that was value ended up a loser which happens, but it is immensely annoying when it does. Why is it that whenever you have a chunk of change on basketball, the team you are on goes to pieces? It seems that way anyway!

But tonight I called the Cavs / Wizards game a little better, though I did get a little lucky. I laid the Cavs big at 1.5 when it seemed to me the price was too low for a two point game. The Wizards took a six point lead so I went Green-All-Over though more green on the Wizards. With a late run in the last minute the Wizards won the game by one, and I made £500. (A Cavs win would 'only' have made me £350...)

There's a new blog which you might check out if you trade basketball. It's a little late in the season to be starting the exercise, but interesting anyway. 

It's at http://tradethenba.blogspot.com/

All Quiet on the Investment Front

It's all been a bit quiet on the investing front lately. I've had my two kids staying with me for a few days and would rather enjoy their company than win some money, although I have managed to do the latter. Woke up early this morning to find that the San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies game was still going on. For some reason the Padres were available to lay at 1.2 with the score tied, and I took advantage of this, laying it off when the Padres duly failed to score. 

They did have a couple on base, but with two outs I considered laying at this price great value. This happened twice, the second time a few innings later, and I ended up with a nice profit. I think there was a baseball newbie in the market because when the Rockies took a 1-0 lead at the top of one of the extra innings (the game went to 22!) someone backed them at 1.01, although sadly I didn't have the foresight to lay at that price.

As I mentioned previously, my soccer lay system is on hold until the new season, although I may use it for some of the summer leagues in Scandinavia or MLS. I've been dabbling with the under/over markets with some success, but it seems to me that the soccer markets are so efficient that I have no edge, and these in-running bets are just gambles.

The NBA regular season has ended, and the play-offs start this weekend. Like the football season, it's been tricky betting on NBA with the season winding down and teams resting key players, and some big handicap spreads that I tend to avoid at the best of times. But with the play-offs starting tomorrow, there should be some close games and hopefully some value bets available.

Football Lays Saturday 12 April

17 lay selections today, and they are: Ayr United, Brechin, Bristol Rovers, Bury, Hereford United, Huddersfield Town, Lincoln City, Mansfield Town, Nottingham Forest, Ross County, Salisbury, Sheffield United, Stockport, Stoke City, Stranraer, Torquay United, and Walsall. I haven't yet had time to eliminate any teams that are playing against teams with nothing to play for, but this list may well be trimmed for that reason.

Update: Upon further review, I am removing Bury and Mansfield Town from the above list of selections. So 15 selections 'only'.

Results: Not a good day today, with no less than 8 of the 15 lay selections winning. With the bank still in profit, I think this is time for the system to take a break until next season. It seems that at this time of year, there are too many fixtures that are meaningless to either one or both teams, or more meaningful to one team than the other and strange results are being seen. Lay selections winning 6-1 away for example. The summer will give me a chance to delve a little deeper into the system and try to improve the selection criteria ready for 2008-2009. How time flies when you get older.

Football Lay Thursday 10 April

One lay again today; Ebbsfleet United (3.0) at Halifax Town despite the latter team letting me down two nights ago. Halifax have an incentive since a win will take them out of the relegation places whilst Ebssfleet can take it easy. The bank currently stands at £1,073.53 and I am laying to £10.85.

Result: Halifax duly obliged and beat Ebbsfleet 1-0 tonight, and the bank increases another £5.15 to stand at £1,079.11.

Football Lay Wed 9 April

One lay today; Ross County (3.0) at Airdrie United. Both teams are looking for promotion and thus have something to play for. The bank currently stands at £1,068.38 and I am laying to £10.85.

Result: Ross County lost 0-2, so the bank increases by £5.15.

Tuesday Football Lays 8 April

The Lay System has generated five selections for tomorrow. They are: Portsmouth, Swansea City, Forest Green Rovers, Kidderminster Harriers and Forfar Athletic.

I shall be laying each of the five to a loss of £10.85, but following a comment from A. Nonymous last Saturday it may be wise to exclude two of these selections, namely Portsmouth and Forfar as they are both playing teams that have nothing to play for. He/she has a valid point, so I shall be watching these two results with special interest. Forfar are the shortest price at 2.74, Portsmouth are longest at 3.3, and the others are in-between at 3.25 (Swansea), 3.0 (Forest Green) and 3.15 (Kidderminster).

Result: I guess stranger things have happened in the history of football, but Kidderminster was not one of my system’s best ever selections winning by no less than 6-1 at Halifax, who previously had lost just three times at home all season. Such is life. I guess Halifax are resigned to playing in the Conference North next season.

Portsmouth also let me down by trying too hard in one of the two games where my selection was playing a team with nothing to play for. At least Forfar didn’t win, but I would have been better off excluding both these selections.

All in all, not a very good night with two losses from just five selections. I shall update the numbers later. As the commenter on Saturday said, we are entering a tricky time of the year with so many games involving either one or sometimes both teams who have nothing to play for. I am thinking that I shall heed his advice and drop those matches from my list. Watch this space.

Total Match Points Markets in Basketball

These markets must be the most annoying anywhere on Betfair. I've just been watching the Memphis Tigers / UCLA game and the unders looks a shoo-in with less than three minutes left, and Memphis up by double figures. But no. UCLA keeps fouling, time after time, and for what? The game is lost. Memphis might miss the occasional free-throw, but they're not going to miss anywhere near enough to make the game even close. I can only guess that they do it just to annoy me and cost me money. Actually, the worst thing about losing this kind of a bet is not the money. It's knowing that somewhere out there, someone out-witted me. That is not something that sits well with me! But onward and upward. Another game coming up, and so long as the lesson is learned (stay away from these markets), no real harm I suppose.

Update: A poster on the forum just commented that there were 26 points in the last three minutes - in a game that wasn't even close!

Saturday Baseball

Two selections for tonight.

On the mound for the Padres tonight is Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy, who picked up a win on opening day, so my selection is the San Diego Padres (1.7) to beat the admittedly impressive Los Angeles Dodgers. When the Padres take the lead, I shall be looking to lay off at around 1.35.

Result: Padres won 4-1 with a full game from Jake Peavy.

I am persisting with the Detroit Tigers at 1.7 to beat the Chicago White Sox with Dontrelle Willis pitching his debut in the American League. Their awful start can't continue for ever. (Famous last words).

Result: First, the good news - the Tigers went 3-0 up. Last, the bad news. They are still totally inept and lost 3-5. Maybe this awful start CAN last for ever.

Saturday Football Lays April 5

The bank stands at £1,070.28 so today I am laying to 1% on 20 selections, which are: Sheffield Wednesday (playing at noon) followed by Tottenham Hotspur, Sunderland, Bristol City, Burnley, Charlton Athletic, Hartlepool, Oldham Athletic, Tranmere Rovers, Barnet, Brentford, Darlington, Macclesfield, Morecambe, Oxford United, York City, Dunfermline, Livingston and Airdrie at 3:00pm and at 5:15pm, Exeter City. All prices are between 2.84 and 3.6.

The system to date has a strike rate of 82.1% so I'm prepared for four losers, but anything less than six would be great. Six, ho-hum. Anything more than six, not so great.

Update: For some reason, a big drop in the price of the home team has eliminated three of my selections from contention, and they are Barnet, Macclesfield and Dunfermline. Early this morning I left lays in the market, and my strategy is to leave them alone until 2:30 and see how many have not been taken. One of the four unmatched selections was Tottenham Hotspur, who had drifted slightly and I adjusted my bet accordingly. The other three (mentioned earlier) had all drifted significantly so I am dropping them. I did not have this issue last week, so it will be interesting to see how those teams fare today. The Barnet bet had actually been partly matched at 3.2, but then drifted out to 3.75 so I was able to green-up on this one (for peanuts, but I am not allergic to peanuts, especially risk-free ones). If anyone knows why the price drifted out so much on any of these games, please enlighten me. Presumably some significant team news.

Result: Sheffield Wednesday did not win, so a winning start to the day.

Result: 12 of the other 16 games played so far resulted in the predicted four losses (next week I'll try predicting no losses) so the bank now stands at £1,085.24.

In the final game of the day, I have layed Exeter City for £4.52 at 3.4 to lose £10.85.

Result: ...and shouldn't have done! Exeter won, so I lost.

The bank is now at £1,074.38 - up just £4.10 on the day. As I said in the original post - ho-hum. But a profit is a profit.

Tennis

Does anyone sitting at home actually manage to make money consistently by betting on tennis in-running?

I long ago realised that I was always going to be behind court-siders or people who had access to court-side information, but I have had some success with 'playing the numbers' (backing when the weight-of-money indicates I should, and then laying off) but it is stressful to say the least.

Tonight I am looking at the numbers jumping around as Andy Roddick is playing Nikolay Davydenko and with Davydenko a set up, I decided to jump in with a bet on him at 1.73. As per usual, (or so it seems), the price then immediately moves against me, and my heart rate goes over 100, (or at least it feels like it). About two hours later, ok, more like five minutes later, the price is back down to where I backed at, and then drops still further, to 1.66, at which point I lay-off, leaving zero on Roddick, and all the green on Davydenko.

Why did I lay off at that time? I think it's because the market initially moved against me, so psychologically I say to myself "If I can get out of this even, I'll be happy" and thus when the opportunity to get out with a nice profit presented itself, I took it. Tennis being what it is, had I waited just a few more minutes I could have layed off closer to 1.3, (at which point I went Green-all-Over) and it wasn't that long before the game was over in straight sets and I could have greened up at 1.0x.

Maybe I should play with smaller amounts (I put £900 on and wouldn't have been happy to lose that!), or lay-off part of the bet. Maybe I should have let the bet run, and traded out at a loss only if the market moved against me. In the end, I came away with £47.23, about 5% of my initial investment, but I can't help feeling I should have made more. But a win is a win.

One of the problems with Betfair, when compared with the stock market, is that there is no ability to put a stop-loss bet into the market, for example a bet to lay at 2.0 to close my 1.73 position for a controlled loss, since that would be immediately matched if I didn't want it to be taken (the bet is still in good shape) or would remain unmatched if I DID want it to be (the bet is awful and no one is interested!)

Anyone any thoughts, comments or ideas?

Friday Baseball

Slight after-timing here - I didn’t realise the game started so early, but I am on the Detroit Tigers (1.7) with Nate Robertson pitching to finally get their first win of the season against the Chicago White Sox. I can’t see the Tigers’ losing run continuing much longer, and as I write this, the game is tied at 2, top of the 3rd.

Update: Should have just kept quiet. The inept Tigers fell short again, and now have a less than impressive 0-4 record to start the 2008 season.

Friday Football Lay

Today, there is one selection for the Football Laying System (I need a catchy name for this, any ideas?) which is Dagenham and Redbridge (3.2) playing at Accrington Stanley in a League Two fixture. I am laying £10.65 hoping to to win £4.64 (pre-commission).

Result: Dagenham and Redbridge (both...) lost, so the bank increases to £1,070.28 and the selections tomorrow, and there will be a few, will all be layed to 1% of that, i.e. £10.70.

Thursday Baseball / Basketball

Tonight's selection is the Detroit Tigers (1.58) to get their first win of the season behind Jeremy Bonderman in their home again against the Kansas City Royals.

Only three NBA games tonight, and nothing of value. At this time of year, with teams looking forward to the play-offs, one needs to be careful. Quite often a team would appear to be better off losing a couple of games and dropping down to play a weaker team, albeit a higher seeded one and players are often rested in these situations or if the play-off spot is locked in and they have nothing more to play for. I shall probably keep an eye on these games as they go in-play though. Prices can be volatile and value can often be found during the game. Good luck.

Update: Cleveland Cavaliers (1.32) are the pick for this morning. As always, I shall be looking to go Green-all-Over when the price drops to 1.11 or so.

MLB Result: Tigers were hopeless (again) last night. They lost to the Kansas City Royals 1-4 to open the season 0-3 at home. Not what I expected from them at all!

NBA Result: The Cavaliers managed to drop a 14 point lead, not that unusual an occurrence in the NBA, and lost 108-111, but because I layed off at 1.11 to go Green-all-Over, I'm writing this update in green. Cleveland actually traded as low as 1.04. More evidence that going green-all-over in the NBA is a good strategy.

March Summary

Overall March was a good month. My football bets showed a healthy profit with the 'going-live' of my football laying system. I initially noticed an edge back in the summer, but because the games were an obscure mixture of Scandinavian games, Austrian, Under-20 World Cup matches, MLS, pre-season friendlies and others, I didn't pay too much heed to it.

Earlier this year I came across the original spreadsheet (I'm a nerd - I record everything) and decided to monitor English and Scottish fixtures for a while. As of 31st March, 274 games had been tracked and the pattern I'd noticed in the summer was again evident. Although this is still a work in progress, the current selection criteria would have resulted in 95 winning lays from 116 selections.

Like many others, I read the story of Maria and her laying system with much interest, and although there are some sceptics around, I have no reason to doubt that her discipline and selections combined to make her a nice sum of money. Inspired by the story, I decided to start with a bank of £1,000 and attempt to replicate her success. The big difference between her system and mine is that with only three outcomes possible, the odds I am laying will seldom exceed 4.0. The longest I have layed so far was 3.8. Therefore, her formula for calculating the bank percentage to risk each time is redundant, and I am laying to a fixed 1%. However, I may tinker with this in the future and adopt the idea of having different percentages for different bands of prices. For now I am keeping it simple.

Also, for ease of calculating winnings, I am assuming a 5% commission deduction, although my discount rate is currently 16%. Therefore my actual profits will be slightly higher than those reported.

At the end of March, the system had 18 wins from 21 selections, and the bank stood at £1,052.01 laying each selection to lose £10.62.

Wednesday Baseball / Basketball

Tonight's selection is for the San Diego Padres to continue their strong start to the season behind Greg Maddux at 1.74 and beat the Houston Astros.

In the NBA, look for the Cleveland Cavaliers (1.64) to be too strong for the Charlotte Bobcats but as always this time of year, be wary for any team news on resting players. Good luck.

NBA Result: The Cleveland Cavaliers won a close game 118-114.

MLB Result: All-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman blew a 6-5 lead in the top of the 9th, and the Padres fell to a 6-9 loss. However, I am putting this result in green because my lay at 1.1 was taken allowing me to go Green-all-Over, although not as green on the Astros as I was the Padres. The Padres actually traded at 1.01 (gubbed as they say) when they were one out away from a win in the top of the ninth - someone got a little too greedy. Very poor liquidity though.

Tuesday Baseball

Today's baseball selection is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (1.86 with Jon Garland pitching) to beat the Minnesota Twins. The Angels came up a little short yesterday, but I expect them to win tonight.

MLB Result: Angels won 9-1

Tuesday Football Lays

My Football Lay System continues tomorrow with three selections which are Forfar (3.15), Queen of the South (2.92) and Wrexham (3.35).

To date the system has produced 92 winning lays from 113 selections ( 81.4%) - a level stakes profit of 49.77 to a 1.00 stake.

Update: I have now added Ebbsfleet to my selections at 3.45.

Football Result: Whilst others may consider the Champions’ League quarter-finals rather more important, the highlight of tonight’s football action for me is a clean sweep for my laying system, with all three selections losing, (Forfar was a postponement), and the starting bank of £1,000 increasing to £1,065.68.

MLB Opening Day

A win on the baseball last night, with the underdog Washington Nationals taking a 2-0 first inning lead at home to the Atlanta Braves. The Braves tied it up in the top of the ninth before a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth won it for the Nationals.

A full schedule of games tonight which should offer some value. Early in a season I tend to keep my stakes small and go with the underdogs pre-game with a view to laying off in running, but my bet of the night is the Los Angeles Dodgers who I feel are value at 1.55 to beat the San Francisco Giants.

MLB Update: The Dodgers scored 3 in the first and shut out the Giants 5-0.

Following Your Own Advice

On Xmas Eve last year, John "The Gambler" posted a list of 20 questions / comments when asked for advice on successful investing. You can check his full list of rules at http://john2e.typepad.com/ Most of them are common sense, but I am highlighting numbers 17 and 20 which are:

17. Don't drink and bet.
20. Don't chase your losses.

It is therefore sad to read in his blog that yesterday's losses were, in his own words, down to "Mainly horse racing after one too many lagers" and on February 23rd he says "Somehow nearly 5K up on the month. Not quite sure how. Probably as I keep bringing in the tanks to get out of trouble. Not a good strategy in the long term".

...after one too many lagers? ...bringing in the tanks? (high stakes at low odds)

Now John seems a genuinely nice guy and I wish him all the best, but I have to agree with the commenter on his blog who wrote that this was an accident waiting to happen. In mitigation he has had a few 'off-field' issues lately which have no doubt been distracting, but if he returns to trading, I hope he heeds his own advice. Making money at this game is not easy, but discipline, whether it be not drinking or controlling your stakes, is absolutely vital at all times. Good luck John.

To Green Or Not To Green?

When time permits, I occasionally browse the forum for information, but sadly for the most part the threads are pointless or repetitive and not worth bothering with. Posts pointing out losing 1.01s, or nothing to do with the sport under which the post is made abound. But occasionally one catches the eye, and one such is currently in General Betting titled "Koo's Comeback Thread". Koo is an interesting character. It appears that he won a small fortune, actually a large fortune, backing a 1000-1 winner on Betfair, and then proceeded to lose most of it back. Now he's back with a little more discipline, though how his heart copes with the huge wins and losses I have no idea! (The world of horse racing is not one that I am privy too, and I leave it alone, but I can see the appeal with an abundance of opportunities each and every day).

One comment in particular caught my eye, and it was on the subject of greening-up. Someone posted: "Koo....been reading the thread with interest. Just wondered if you ever green up on these outsiders when they come close or do you tend to just let the bets ride. ta"

His post, and I hope neither he (nor the question poser for that matter), will mind me reproducing it here, was as follows:

"I tried to green up a bit there, but I think the others who backed it at big prices kept gazumping my prices. I thought it was the winner from 2 out, so wasn't gonna lay at 5's and more just to get say 4-5k out of it whatever happened. Even with a big green number on my bet - I wont give money away by laying miles over the true odds just to secure a green screen. Long term thats a bad ploy."

Essentially, as I understand it, Koo was in a position to green-up, but the cost of doing so was too much. He wouldn't green-up because it wasn't value to do so, and as he stated, long term, that is a bad ploy. One should not make a bet unless it is value, whether it be an entry bet or an exit bet.

It did get me thinking though, because I know that I have been in the same situation in other sports, and have laid off at poor value just to guarantee a profit. I guess my fear of a big loss outweighs my greed of going for the big win and this is something I need to work on. There is something about that big red number on my screen that allows me to take a poor value bet to exit a position and lock in green-all-over when I would never take the same bet to enter a position.

Something for me to be aware of and work on. Thanks Koo.

Baseball Begins

No system football lays today, which isn't too surprising given that there were so few games. If I had all the time in the world, I would extend my system to include some of the major European Leagues, but there is always so much to do. A surprise to see Newcastle do so well at Tottenham, but no real surprise to see Chelsea and Liverpool win at home.

So tonight sees a close finish to the PGA Tour's latest event, the Zurich Open. As I write, Woody Austin leads by one shot from Andres Romero and John Merrick (never heard of him!) and two shots ahead of another four players. Should be an interesting last few holes ahead.

Also this is the opening game on US soil of the baseball season, with the Atlanta Braves playing at the Washington Nationals. (The Boston Red Sox and the Oakland Athletics played two regular season games in Japan last week, splitting the series 1-1).

Baseball is a sport well suited to my style of trading (looking for value) with the market regularly over-reacting to runs and then correcting itself. Just watch how the prices move when the road (away) team scores in the first inning. The home team hasn't even had a bat, yet the prices have moved several points very often. The slow pace of the game also helps with trading. 

There are short breaks bewtween batters, and longer breaks in the middle and at the end of each inning when the prices settle, and extra intervals when pitching changes come along (which can be quite often late in a game). I tend not to take a position pre-game (there are far more people that understand the game better than I do), but if I were too, I would suggest that a strategy of laying the favourite with a view to trading out during the game might be a winning one.

Golf Result: Laid Andres Romero after he had completed his round, figuring that this was value due to the number of contenders not too far behind and with holes to play. Although Peter Lonard pulled level at one point, he then dropped a shot and Romero held on resulting in a loss of £121.36.

Saturday Football Lays (Result)

Of my 19 lay selections, just 3 won - Bury, Rochdale and Ayr so the bank increases by £53.06 (actually slightly more, but for simplification my spreadsheet is based on a fixed 5% commission since my discount varies from week to week). 

 I started with a bank of £1,000 laying to 1%, and after three days and 21 bets, the bank now stands at £1,062.08. Since my three losers today were all from League Two or the Scottish Second Division I may look at refining the system to exclude these divisions and lower, but for the time being I will continue to include them.

Boat Race

That quintessentially English sporting occasion, the Boat Race, takes place in a few minutes. The final this year is a repeat of last year, and features the teams from Oxford and Cambridge Universities... My strategy with this kind of event is to bank on the fact that as start time approaches, people will want to have a bet riding on the race, so I backed Oxford at 1.47 expecting the price to fall a little as the day goes on. I sold out at 1.42 for a free bet on Oxford, but as I write this, the lay price has continued to drop (to 1.39) and I should have held on. But a free bet is not to be sniffed at, though the lesson learned is to be a little more patient before laying off.

Update: 13 minutes from start time, and the lay price has dropped further to 1.31. Note to self for this event next year...

Boat Race Result: Oxford won by six lengths.

Saturday Football Lays

Flushed with excitement after a run of 2 out of 2 after going live, I continue my laying system in this afternoon's games. I have 19 today which I am laying to the same loss, and they are: Blackburn Rovers, Manchester City, Plymouth Argyle, Sheffield United, Stoke City, Watford, Bristol Rovers, Crewe, Millwall, Northampton Town, Accrington Stanley, Bury, Rochdale, Rotherham, Histon, Weymouth, Dundee United, Hibernian and Ayr United. All are away teams at an average price of 3.11 so I figure I can take six losers and still show a profit. During the trialling of this system, 94 selections from 231 qualifying matches have produced 18 losers (19.1%) so I am quietly confident.

Football Research

While I am waiting for the last few minutes of the Doncaster Rovers / Nottingham Forest game to tick away, I thought I would share some observations on the Premier League so far this season. 

I have data from 433 games and the theory that I was trying to prove was that in the first few minutes after half-time, the probability of a goal being scored is lower than during the rest of the game. I suspect that at half-time, teams get to rest and recover, and make strategic changes to counter what the other team is doing. 

Dividing the game up into 5 minute periods, what I actually found is that the period with the lowest probability of a goal is actually between 36 and 40 minutes, but very closely followed by the 46 to 50 minute period. I sometimes back the under at half-time and wait a few minutes before laying off, and I have had some success with this, and the statistics so far do seem to back this idea up.

I did also find it interesting that there have been 86 goals in the 90th minute so far this season - much higher than I intuitively would have suspected, but stats don't lie do they?

Full-time result is in and Doncaster Rovers have won 1-0. Maybe I should just back the opposition of my lay selections to win 1-0?

Onward and upward.

Doncaster v Nottingham Forest

Tonight's football system lay is Nottingham Forest at 3.4. I am going to spend some time today researching the famous Maria's Laying System to see if I can pick up any ideas on improving the staking system. I shall also be looking at whether the system works better in top level matches or lower level. Watch this space.

Salisbury v Stevenage (Result)

A 90th minute winner for Salisbury confirmed that my lay of Stevenage would pay off. I seem to have better luck trawling the depths of the footballing world for value than I do trying to find value in the Premier League. I'm sure this is because the market is so efficient at the top level whilst the lesser leagues receive less attention, so I shall probably be focusing my football efforts in the basement.

I am going to use progressive staking for this system, so the risk next time increases to a whopping £10.05. Slow and steady wins the race. Stay tuned.

Salisbury v Stevenage

For a few weeks now, I have been paper trading a football lay system, and the results look promising. I do need to spend some more time analysing the results, but I am going to go-live today with a small lay of Stevenage (2.88) playing away at Salisbury.

Warriors - Lakers

Warriors up by 4 after a 7-0 run, ahead 22-18 with 2:44 left in Q1 and Lakers trading at 2.02. I'm greened-up and off for some sleep. Be lucky.

Celtics - Sixers

I'm not sure it's too cool to talk about the size of profits once they are over and above a certain amount, so I'll just say that I have tonight had one of my better wins on the NBA.

The game in question was the Boston Celtics v Philadelphia '76ers. Pre-game, I believe Boston were pretty short favourites, around 1.15 (give or take a point). So with 5:01 remaining, I see that the game is tied at 80. Now my thinking is that if the teams are tied with 7/8ths of the game gone, then the teams are pretty evenly matched, and the odds should be a lot closer to evens than the 1.25 / 1.3 that the Celtics were trading at. 

I took the 1.3. Mild panic sets in as I think I'm missing something - the Sixers have had a player sent-off perhaps, so I sit back ready for the Celtics to go on a late run, but happily watch the Sixers take a 5 point lead. Finally the market wakes up to the fact that the Sixers might actually really win the game, they see-saw to favourites, and I lay off locking in £200 should the Celtics come back, and significantly more if the Sixers should hold on.

They held on. And I was joking about the Sixers having a player sent-off. I'm in the mood for jokes right now!

Repetitive and Nonsensical Post

After almost three days, I am once again able to add posts to my blog. I tried on Saturday, and received the following message:

"This blog is under review due to possible Blogger Terms of Service violations and is currently unpublished. You can view your blog's posts here in Blogger, but you may not make any changes.

As with many powerful tools, blogging services can be both used and abused. 

The ease of creating and updating webpages with Blogger has made it particularly prone to a form of behavior known as link spamming.

Blogs engaged in this behavior are called spam blogs, and can be recognized by their irrelevant, repetitive, or nonsensical text, along with a large number of links, usually all pointing to a single site."

Irrelevant, repetitive, or nonsensical text? Give me a break, I only started this exercise a few days ago!

Anyway, I'm not quite sure what triggered the freeze, but I am back, my blog having passed scrutiny by a human eye.

Briefly, to catch up on the weekend, (and not to after-time too much) I learned not to dabble in Formula One because apparently I have no idea what I am doing. 

Golf was mildly profitable after a weather affected tournament, and football was kind to me for once. 

Three bets, Leeds United to beat Walsall at 2.0 on Saturday, and then on Sunday more success with Manchester United at 2.16 and Chelsea at 2.34 to beat Arsenal. 

In all three games, I felt that the home team should have been odds-on, (Leeds United did actually go odds-on after I'd placed my bet), and Manchester United and Chelsea have been playing well of late.

I also traded the Newcastle United v Fulham game for ten minutes. My method was to back the Under 2.5 goals at half-time and then lay off at the 55 minute mark. 

My logic is that at half-time, teams refresh and re-group and tend to start the second-half somewhat conservatively. Feeling each other out if you'll excuse the expression. I need to review my stats to see if this theory actually holds water, but on this occasion I was able to back at 1.74, and lay off at 1.49 so I was happy.

In a few hours, the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors play each other. These two teams played yesterday, and the Warriors won against the odds. I'm expecting the Lakers to do better 24 hours later, even though they are on the road, but at 1.8 I think the value is in laying them and backing them back when the Warriors go on one of their runs. Well, here's hoping anyway.

Warriors - Rockets In-Play

After less than 6 minutes, and a 9-0 run from the Warriors, the price on the Warriors has dropped to 1.3, and since basketball is very much a game of momentum, I am now calling it a day. I expect the Warriors to win, but they have a habit of letting the other team back into games so I am happy with a profit.

Golden State Warriors

The NBA game between Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets is about to begin, and I have taken a position on the Warriors at 1.67. 

Two reasons for this. 

1) The Rockets' winning run has ended, and I suspect that they expended a lot of emotional energy keeping that run going for as long as they did. 

2) The Warriors are an explosive team. 

I don't usually hold my positions to the end, and I expect that they will afford me the opportunity to green-up later in the game.

You Cannot Be Serious!

While I was looking around at other blogs to get a feel for what is out there, I came across this web site:

http://www.laythepsychicway.com/

Now admittedly I'm probably one of the more sceptical of people in this world, but really - would ANYONE buy a product that sells itself as a system based on "statistics and psychic ability"?

In response to a Frequently Asked Question posed as "So why isn’t the system 100%?" the answer given is:

"Firstly, it is based upon a statistical system which isn’t 100% accurate. And, neither is anyone else’s for that matter! If you find one – please let me know! Secondly, sometimes my powers don’t ‘switch on’ at all or they ‘switch on’ too late for them to be of any practical use."

My powers don't switch on?!!

If anyone knows anyone who has bought this system, please direct them my way. I have a great deal for them.

Opening Thoughts

What is "Green All Over?"

The title is a reference to 'Greening-up', a term used by Betfair users to describe the ideal scenario whereby every possible outcome on an event will result in a profit. (The 'what-if' figure shows on the screen in green.)

I have been active on Betfair for almost four years now, and have had some moderate success. Some good wins, some small wins, some small losses and some frightening losses, but overall I have made a steady profit.

I have recently starting reading a number of blogs themed on Betfair, hoping to pick up some ideas, but sadly most seem to be a diatribe of eating and drinking habits, interspersed with less than informative betting related comments like "Lost £2.67 on the cricket today".

So, as arrogant as ever, I am hoping to fill this gap with a blog that goes a little deeper into the reasons why I made or lost money, my thoughts and emotions as the win / loss was happening, and perhaps filled with other observations from the world of betting.

If horse-racing is your thing, then this blog is probably not for you. Racing is just not for me. Rather like the stock-exchange, there are far too many insiders with access to a lot more information than I have and I find that the world of sports offers a more even playing field.

My investing style, and I prefer the term 'investing' over 'betting', is to trade fast moving sports in-running, looking for value. The markets are driven by two factors, fear and greed, and in the heat of battle, these factors drive people to make bad decisions and take or offer poor value bets. This is what I look for. I don't always win, but like I explained to my old Mum, if I can get 2-1 on a coin toss, I'll lose some but win a lot more. Sadly I don't often find 2-1 on evens chances, but in Betfair terms if I can get 2.1 on a 2.0 chance, I'm happy.

April

You may have come here,

Seeking the rules,

In which case you’ve fallen,

For Cassini’s April Fool’s