Daily Targets

I have written before on here how it is my opinion that having daily targets is a bad idea. For one thing, value opportunities do not not come along with the same frequency. (Most sports have busy days and quiet days for example). Some days I do not find any value bets, and on other days I might find two in the space of two minutes. Quitting for the day upon reaching an arbitrary profit is senseless, and of course the other problem with setting a short term target is that you put pressure on yourself to meet that target, and thus try to find an opportunity that really is not value.

Having said that, I do suffer from a strong reluctance to record a negative profit on any single day, which is really just as bad. I record the results of every market by sport every day and I know I have taken bets at bad value simply to show a profit. I guess the solution is to just look at the bottom line every month, but it's a hard habit to break. I find it immensely annoying to have to record even the smallest of daily losses. My longest run of profitable days is 42, my longest run of losing days is 4 in April 2007.

So, this is the only target I have, as such. Other levels that I like to beat each day, but that I can honestly say do not factor into my decision making at all, are my 10 and 30 day moving averages, my one year moving average, my all-time average, and my current year average. I like to beat these because if I don't, it's no big deal but my charts take a dip and that is not pleasing to me. Obviously the 10 and 30 day averages are particularly volatile so the key ones for me are the 1 year moving average, and the all-time daily average.

I also enjoy beating the daily average income for full-time male employees (£71.15 per day) and females (£56.29). As I've said before, numbers are fun.

Marychain1 on Liverpool v Liege

A great post on the Betfair Forum today, following the Liverpool v Liege game (Liverpool won in extra-time after a goalless 90 minutes)

Enitled: "Thank you, you f*****s, cost me my bank"

"This is an absolute disgrace!!! How the f*** can that bunch of jokers not win against those amateurs??? What an absolute ******* joke!!!! I had my WHOLE BANK riding on them!!! How can they not even score one goal. I'm going f*****g mental here. If I was the chairman I'd be sacking the manager first thing in the morning after this, and half the players would be following him out the door. I was embarrassed watching it. If you ask me they have made the whole country a laughing stock drawing 0-0 with this shower of ****. They certainly wont be getting a warm welcome back in Liege if they can't even beat Liverpool."

Very entertaining, and caught a good number of people as well. Thanks for the laugh.

Football Favourite-Longshot Bias

Towards the end of the football 2007-08 season, I paper traded a laying system that I have been developing for 391 matches.

Although this was a limited sample, the selection criteria did show some interesting trends which indicated that in the matches I selected, there was a significant favourite-longshot bias. I'm not going to get too carried away, but I am going to continue monitoring these matches and will play with a small bank for added interest.

Statistically, the system had 277 winners from 391 selections (70.84%) and made a (pre-commission) profit of £47.44. There were two Longest Losing Sequences of 5, although since many matches take place at the same time, and in many cases the sequence is alphabetical, this may not be too relevant.

Early lay selections for today are Leeds United and Rushden and Diamonds.

10k Swimming

I can be such an idiot at times. Having traded like a demon in the Channel 5 Angels / Rays game tonight, I then invest, no - gamble, my profits on an Olympic event I know nothing about, just because we have a chance of yet another Gold Medal. Why do I do these stupid things? I must have learned enough lessons to write a small guide to what NOT to do on Betfair.

I did get a little luckier earlier when I really thought the price on a new 200m world record by Usain Bolt was too low, and backed "No World Record". Then my brain kicked in, and I figured it actually wasn't that unlikely and layed off to go Green-All-Over and lucky I did. A very impressive performance. That record and the 100m too will come down again if he stays healthy. Pretty cool runnings.

And I thought Jamaica was only good for the Bobsled...

Approach v System

Someone on the Betfair Forum recently posted something sensible. Yes, yes, I know, it hardly seems possible, but occasionally someone actually posts something that is worth reading. Apologies for forgetting whoever it was, (I didn’t note your name down but I will post a link to this entry in the hope that you will claim credit for the idea), but anyway, his comment was that to be successful on Betfair, it is the ‘approach’ that is important and not any ‘system’.

I agree with this statement absolutely. In fact, it’s my approach that I have been fine-tuning since joining Betfair, although I didn’t consciously think of it that way before.

I’m not saying that I don’t believe that ‘systems’ never work (they do if they always represent value), but the poster was spot on when he said that success or failure lies with the overall approach. Having been a Betfair investor for over four years now, I have five golden rules (mostly learned the hard-way) as to what attributes an ‘approach’ needs to have.

1. Software – never invest when you are tired, emotional or when you are euphemistically tired AND emotional. (Drinking and smart decision making have never gone together very well. How many of us would be here today if that were the case?)

2. Hardware – have reliable computer equipment and internet connection and a back-up. There is nothing more frustrating than being unable to exit a position due to a technical glitch.

3. Discipline – never be in a hurry to invest. Wait for an opportunity that looks like value, but never bet just for the sake of it. Some days there may be nothing to bet on. That’s ok, tomorrow there may be a hundred. For this reason I do not advocate having short-term goals. They sound fine in theory, but they put pressure on one to invest when one shouldn’t and vice-versa, to stop investing when one should be making hay. Also, and this should go without saying, never bet more than you are comfortable losing. The fact that a bet is good value is no guarantee that it will win. Expect the worst, understand that the bet was a good bet even if it lost, and look at the long-term picture.

4. Specialise – concentrate on what you’re good at. I have a number of sports and markets that I just can’t get ahead on so I just stay away from them and focus on those markets that I do understand and that make me money.

5. Records – keep accurate records. It is a well known trait of gamblers to remember (and inflate) the wins and forget the losses (ask a gambler how he’s done over the past year and the answer is usually “won a few, lost a few, slightly ahead overall”) but to see exactly what works and what doesn’t, it is essential that you keep track of your results. Numbers don’t lie. I have a spreadsheet dating back to 1/1/06 (one of the few New Year’s resolutions that I have actually kept for more than a week) and it allows me to plot fancy charts and calculate moving averages to my heart’s content.

Update: The poster who deserves the credit for inspiring this post has been identified and goes by the Forum Name of JPG.

Olympics, the US and John Cleese

So the Olympics doesn't open until Friday, but the games have begun (if you can call women's football a game). Just kidding ladies. When the last Olympics took place, I was a novice on Betfair, and aside from a teeny win on Water Polo one quiet Saturday, I don't recall getting involved very much. This year will probably be the same. Laying the USA men's basketball team at 1.36 could be good. Their NBA superstars often don't gel very well (as is the case in the Ryder Cup), and for other teams, they are the team to beat. Also other teams have a healthy starting line-up of NBA players themseves - Spain and Argentina to name but two.

Why is it that with the exception of basketball, the big sports in the US are games that hardly any other country plays? Reminds me of the old John Cleese joke (circa 1998), when asked by an American talk-show host what the difference were between the US and Britain:

"1. We speak English and you don't"

"2. In England, when we have a World Championship, we invite teams from other countries to take part"

"3. When WE meet our head of State, we only have to go down on ONE knee"

August Baseball

As some of you may have noticed, I pretty much took July off, but I am now back and raring to go with the new football season and the NFL just around the corner, but I start today with a look at baseball.

With the All-Star game behind us, the baseball season really starts to become meaningful. Probably the surprise team of the season is the Tampa Bay Rays who without the Devil in their name are giving the Red Sox and the Yankees a good run this year in the American League East. I expect the Rays to fade as they are currently exceeding their expected win/loss ratio (based on runs scored and runs conceded) by a few games and these things usually level out over a season. In the AL West, the ridiculously named Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are currently proving to be the best team in baseball, while in the Central Division there’s a tight race between the Twins and the White Sox.

In the National League, I am expecting to see the addition of Manny Ramirez help the Dodgers to overtake the Diamondbacks in the West, whilst in the East there’s a tight race between three contenders – the Phillies, Marlins and Mets with the Marlins my tip to fade away. In the Central Division the Cubs should be too strong for the Brewers and may well end the season as the best team overall in the MLB.

From an investment viewpoint, the beauty of baseball is that on any day, any team can beat any other. One swing of the bat can score four runs, or at the other extreme, can result in a triple play.

Simon Jordan

In the News of the World today there's an article about Crystal Palace chairman Simon Jordan and his opinions on football. As always, he is outspoken, but I do believe that much of what he says is the truth. Should players such as Ronaldo honour the contracts that they sign? Is any player worth £150,000 a week? “The reality is that football is a bullshit world - an insidious, insipid, egotistical, greedy, self-motivated game,” stormed Jordan.

Now I do have to declare upfront that Crystal Palace are, and always have been, my team. They were my local team when I was a lad, the first team I ever saw play live, and they were a big part of my life for many years. Not so much now. Like Jordan, I am somewhat disillusioned with the beautiful game, and pick and choose my games rather than blindly attend every game. Getting older and having responsibilities opens your eyes a little, but the comment I want to make here is that I believe football at the top level in this country is living in a bubble. How long can it be before supporters realise that they are being ripped off. Ticket prices are high, the cost of very average food and drink is excessive and once economic hardships start to hit home, football is one if the first luxury items that will go. And I don't think people will miss it nearly as much as they might think.

Football has changed in my years of watching it. As I wrote in a previous post, the days when any one of a dozen teams stood a chance of winning the league have gone. Winning is as boring as losing. The excitement in sport comes from the outcome being unknown. How exciting can it be for a Chelsea fan watching a home fixture against Hull City (and nothing against Hull City - they have done fantastically well in the last few years, and I wish them well) knowing that anything less than a solid win would be a disappointment?

And the Big Four are just going to get bigger. Read the latest transfer rumours to see what is happening. And the Big Four is really the Big Two and the Not Quite So Big Two. If Chelsea and Manchester United don't finish first and second in the Premier League, now what a shock that would be!

I for one am disillusioned with it all at the top level. Lucky for me that Palace aren't up there I guess, (I can enjoy seeing my team as a relatively big fish, but not so big as to make games irrelevant) but am I the only one who now takes far more interest in the non-League game than ever before?

Admittedly a lot of this is because from a betting standpoint there is far more value to be found non-league, but the leagues are competitive and games are fun to watch.

We are approaching a 'Tipping Point' and when we do reach it, the drift away from top-level football will be fast.

Simon Jordan speaks a lot of sense. The 'people's game' is not their game any more, and one day they will realise this. Football needs more people like Simon Jordan.

Brazilian Brush

I don't do the horses because as I have said previously, there is too much insider information in horse racing to which I am not privy, and I believe the sport is corrupt, so I stay away. Perhaps a good job tonight, because a commentator by the name of Mike Cattermole (ATR) called the wrong horse (Brazilian Brush) as the winner when it didn't even place, and someone (or someones I hope) had over £51k backing it at 1.01. And I believe the real winner traded for a small amount at 1000. Probably didn't seem a small amount to the layer.

Nostalgia Ain't What It Used To Be

There was a time, back in my youth, when any one of maybe ten teams had a realistic chance of winning Division One. The League Championship. By the time I reached 18, no fewer than 11 different clubs had won the title, and no team had won it more than 3 times. Indeed only once had the title been won back-to-back. [Quiz time, what year was I born?]

How different from today when the first 16 years of the Premier League have yielded just 4 different winners, with one team winning no fewer than 10 of them. Checking the prices for next season, and there are just four teams rated with a realistic chance of winning and there's no prizes for guessing the teams. Just a reality of the game today I realise, but I do think the old days were better. Sad that the best that 80% of the teams can aspire to next season is to challenge for fourth place.

Incidentally, if you're thinking of dabbling in this market, check around. I was a little surprised to see that odds better than those currently available on Betfair for next season's winner are currently available with BetFred (Chelsea at 3.25), VC Bet (Arsenal at 6.5 and Liverpool at 9). Man Utd are best priced on Betfair at 2.6.

Germany Value

Today sees the final of a very entertaining Euro 2008, with steady Germany playing a very impressive looking Spain. Germany's run reminds me of the way they un-inspiringly progressed to the 2002 World Cup Final only to lose to the better Brazil.

I think the same will happen today and Spain will triumph but having said that I think the value is in backing Germany with a view to laying the bet off at maybe half-time. Germany are available at 2.54 outright and I plan to lay this off at half-time if the game is tied or Germany are ahead. If Spain lead, then I shall await Germany to do what they seem to do quite often and manufacture a result when they are not the better team.

And although the under/over 2.5 goals market is off-limits to me today, I wouldn't discourage a bet on the unders with a view to laying it off after 15 minutes. These finals are usually low-scoring affairs. Usually.

PS: Thanks for all the comments on trading the under/over 2.5 goals market post. Good stuff.

In-Play Over/Under Futility

Graeme, who writes the very readable http://theexperiment-self-indulgentbullshit.blogspot.com/ blog, made a comment on my earlier “Pants Down” post that is worthy of a full post in reply.

“Why are you playing around on these under-over markets?”, he asked.

Well, that’s a very good question. Why am I? Boredom? Eternal optimism? I have played the over/under markets on and off pretty much from day one (March 2004) on Betfair. The appeal is that when you are on the unders, time is your friend and it’s nice to watch your position move into the money. Very nice and seductive. The problem is that it is not so nice when out of the blue comes a goal and just like that your small potential gain has turned into a potentially large loss.

The problem is finding the optimum market entry and exit points, but sadly, there is no hard and fast rule on this. Some games it pays to be on at the start, other games it pays to wait until a few minutes in, and other games it pays to not get involved with at all!

The exit point of course needs to be just prior to a goal is scored. Sounds easy enough…

After a loss, I quit playing these markets, and then one day there’s not much going on, and out of boredom I look at the football game that is currently in-play. Then I dip my toes in the water, splash around for a few minutes, exit the water making a few quid in a few minutes, and think to myself “That was easy”. And the cycle begins again. A few wins, then the one loss that wipes out the previous few weeks profits, and it’s back to square one.

I have had some success this season with making a reasonably large bet pre-game on matches I consider likely to end as unders, and then laying it off after 15 minutes. Last night’s Copa Libertadores final was the worst possible outcome, with not just one early goal, but two, and the bet was lost after 20 minutes or so. It finished at 4-2 but I had long since given up on it. I am still ahead on the season though, but more by luck than skill I suspect.

My thoughts right now are that the market is too efficient in these games, and that there is seldom an edge. Occasionally the market goes over-round so that you can lay the overs, then lay the unders for a profit, but the delay means that you are exposed for several seconds and the reward is miniscule.

Does anyone out there make these markets pay long-term?

I read a system which said to back the unders if the game was a draw at half-time, and leave it for 10 to 15 minutes. Sounds a bit like my backing pre-game and laying off after 15 minutes, but do any stats back up these ideas? I tend to think that everything is already factored into the price and any wins or losses are down to luck which is just gambling, and I am an investor, so no more in-play over/under betting.

I Can't Stand 'Loosing'

Why do so many people on the Betfair forum or indeed, in the Football Guerilla Betting System that I am currently reviewing (for free), not know how to LOSE?

E.g. “Take a break for awhile so you can get that loosing feeling out of your mind.” (from the afore mentioned Betting System which people are being asked to PAY for). What is a 'loosing' feeling?

The word is ‘losing’ – not ‘loosing’!

‘Lose’ means you didn’t win. You didn’t even get your money back. You lost!

‘Loose’ means not rigidly fastened or securely attached. Wobbly.

References: The Police: Can’t Stand Losing You, REM: Losing My Religion, Righteous Brothers: You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin'

http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/lose.html

Losing is bad enough as it is, without making it worse...

Pants Down

For two reasons. I got caught with them down in the final of the Copa Libertadores tonight when two goals in the first 8 minutes saw my pre-game back of the under 2.5 goals go down the pan to the tune of £900, a major dent in June's profits, (and when I tell her, June will not be at all happy), and secondly because I deserve a good arse kicking for putting my money on a bunch of long-haired, jewellery wearing macho men who can't defend and thank an invisible man in the sky every time they score. Yes, I'm a little peed off right now!

When will I learn? I think now is a good time. I lost money in the final last year, and just three weeks ago got (metaphorically) killed by a goal two minutes into stoppage time, so it is time to give up trading football in-play and stick with what I'm good at.

I have more luck with betting on football pre-game and letting it run, and am convinced that with discipline and patience and a solid selection system, the rewards are out there. My problem is that I get impatient, and jump in and out of markets when the game is on and after three years I think the message is that I do not have an edge, and I need to stop. Message received and understood.

Cold Hard Cash BS

I have just finished reading a (free) copy of the Cold Hard Cash (CHC) Betting System, first published in 2004, and what a pile of garbage it is. It consists of 28 pages of poorly written prose, the first 21 of which not only have nothing to do with the system, but are full of mistakes.

Anyone heard of the ‘Martindale’ staking system? Me neither, and that is by no means the only error contained within.

Anyway, the introduction is so painful to read that I can’t bring myself to spend any time on it at all, well, other than to generously point out that he warns readers to be wary of the scams and BS that are out there on the Internet… Oh the irony.

As for the system itself, it’s for football betting. Teams within a division are rated based on last season’s finishing positions from 100 for the bottom team in increments of 100 so that in say the Premier League the top team is rated 2,000.

Here is the meat of the system:

“As teams play each other they effectively bet 10% of their score/rating on the outcome of the game. E.g if Manchester United (score 2000) play Bolton (score 1200) Manchester would risk 200 on the outcome and Bolton 120. The winner of the match takes the 320 points. So if Bolton won their new score/rating would be 1520 and Manchester United would be reduced to 1800”.

“CHC looks for matches where there is at least a 1200 - point advantage to the home team. No matter how strong the advantage of the away team I do not bet on the away win. Partly because I know how I feel after a long car journey, my energy levels are low, I am tired and the last thing I want to do is run around. However, the main reason I don’t bet is, I believe this is always the best opportunity for the underdog to do a bit of giant killing. The home team is in familiar circumstances, the players have their wives, girlfriends, mistresses and family watching and they have thousands of fans cheering them on to vistory!”.

“Expect odds of around 1.5. Be suspicious of odds over 2.2. If the odds are below 1.3 consider using a betting exchange or placing the bet in a double..”

And that is basically it. Back short-priced home favourites! No mention of value at all. Back whether the selection is 1.01 or 2.18 I suppose. No mention of what happens to the ratings when a team draws. All in all a very poor effort. At least if you are going to sell a rubbish system, make it well-written and tart it up a little.

This is actually a simplified version of a system featured in an excellent book called “The Punter’s Revenge” written by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth which I purchased when it was first published back in 1986 just as home computers were becoming commonplace.

Based on the Elo rating system then used in Chess, the book suggested rating teams initially around an average of 1,000, and then adjusting them after each game with the home team ‘risking’ 7% of its rating, and the away team ‘risking’ 5%. In the event of a draw, the two teams would receive back 50% of the ‘risked’ points.

I actually used a modified version of this system quite profitably back in the days of betting shops and fixed odds coupons, but it was a lot of work maintaining those ratings after each match. Admittedly I monitored all 92 league teams for an entire season which may have been a little ambitious in those pre-Internet days, but surely someone out there with a little more talent than me could automate this and publish up-to-date ratings. Thinking about it, if it worked well in the days of fixed odds and bookies, it might be worth a shot today with Betfair.

By the way, if anyone would like to buy the CHC system from me, well - you can't.

But I will e-mail it to you for free...

And Then We Die

What are we trading for? The bottom line is surely “to improve our lives”. My social life for the past two and a half years has by necessity been seriously curtailed, but this has been a price worth paying because I have been able to make a very decent second income from it.

But what good is extra money if you never get a chance to really enjoy it, and drop dead from a heart-attack at the age of 60? Not much really. Life is short, and it’s easy to get caught up in the whirlwind of money-making and miss out on what is really important.

I have been looking at my spreadsheet which I have diligently maintained since January 1, 2006, and of the 905 days since then, I have traded on all but 69 of them. Family vacations and a trip to Germany for the World Cup account for most of those days, so many months I am trading every single day.

Is it worth it? In the short-term, the answer has to be 'yes', but where does it end? The expression ‘make hay while the sun shines’ comes to mind, because whilst for now I am able to make profits, I am well aware that this may not always be so. Markets can change in an instant.

Fortunately, I have a very understanding girlfriend who understands the rewards of what I do, but for many people I imagine this is not the case and relationships are suffering.

For now I shall carry on, but I do need to make a point of exercising regularly. I have noticed my weight start to increase slowly but steadily this year and I’m pretty sure that spending most of my spare time sitting on my arse trading is not the healthiest of lifestyles.

Anyone fancy a friendly challenge to see who can drop the most weight between now and Xmas? I’m at 16 stone 3.8lbs right now. First goal 16 stone. Time for another spreadsheet.

Forza Azzurri

My Italy replica shirt is donned, and the quarter-final with Spain is eagerly awaited. Admittedly influenced by my Italian heritage, I am laying Spain at 2.6, and at 4.7 in the outright winner market, and taking my usual approach of backing the Under 2.5 goals at 1.63. I shall probably only let this bet run for 10 minutes or so, before going Green-All-Over, but the odds do drop quite precipitously in that opening spell so it can be a relatively safe bet. Even with the disaster of an early goal, it would not be unusual to reach half-time with no further goals and be able to get out then.

All three group winners so far have lost, and I don't see why this run shouldn't continue today. Spain have looked impressive so far, but they rested a lot of players in their game against Greece, and that tactic doesn't always pay dividends with returning players a little rusty and losing their touch.

I had a dream about Betfair last night. Sad I know, but I find that after a long day on here, the brain is buzzing with odds and numbers and ideas and just doesn't know when it is time to turn off. Good luck.

Half-Time Update: I layed off the unders bet at 1.42 after 15 minutes, a nice profit for just a few minutes of increased heart rate. At least that's my workout for the day done with! And the Spain match odds bet has been backed back at 2.88. Come on Italy!

Russia - Netherlands

Although my usual strategy for quarter-finals is to back the under 2.5 goals and let it run, I have a feeling that this could be an open game. I'm on the unders for now, but in another ten minutes I shall lay that off (hopefully still 0-0 at 20:00) and hope for goals soon after.

I am still in shock at the finish to yesterday's game. Fortunately I avoided the carnage but I imagine there are a few people looking at significantly diminished balances today. I'm not averse to backing 1.01 shots because I feel that they are often value, but in football it is a dangerous game. I see that some money was put on Turkey at 1000 to win the whole tournament and now are at 15 / 15.5. Well done to someone. There must be a nervous layer right now.

Half-Time Update: £54.04 on unders, £54.00 on overs. Looking like unders right now, but a long way to go yet.

More Euro 2008

The football game of the day for me today is the Sweden - Russia game, and I am expecting a tight game and have gone with the unders. With half-time approaching and a goal by Russia, I shall be laying off at half-time as I quite expect Sweden to push for a goal this second half. The other game, Greece - Spain I am leaving alone for reasons outlined yesterday.

Call Me Roberto (For A Few Days Anyway)

So an Italian win tonight, coupled with Romania failing to win against the impressive looking Dutch, would see Italy advance to the Euro 2008 Quarter-Finals, and as I write this, the second-half is under-way, and Italy and the Netherlands both have one goal leads. From a betting standpoint, I'm always a little wary with these third group games. The first games are usually tight and good for the Unders. The second games tend to be a little more open, and favours the Overs. The third games are tricky - teams don't need to win, (sometimes they don't WANT to win), they rest players - bottom line is that strange things can happen. I backed the Unders in the Italy - France game expecting a tight first half and laid it off at half-time, so I can sit back and enjoy the second half. I left the Netherlands - Romania game alone, though there may have been some 'Dutching' opportunities...

Losing Focus

I seem to lose focus when trading. The pattern seems to be that I get myself into a good position early in an event, before I start making bad decisions and lose some, or all, of the ‘profit’ that I have accumulated.

Notable examples are football and basketball. By half-time I’m sitting pretty (it’s just an expression), but something happens to me in the second half (greed?, tiredness?, over-confidence?, boredom?) and I start making bad decisions until by the end of the game I’m far worse off than if I’d just stopped at half-time.

I’m learning though. In the Czech Republic – Turkey game yesterday, I greened up on the over/under 2.5 goals at half-time and left it alone after that. But then I didn’t learn in the Lakers – Celtics game, which I think was probably down to tiredness. I try to sleep before these middle of the night games, but I suspect it catches up with me, and whilst I’m focused and alert in the early stages, the tiredness kicks in.

Anyway, something to watch and learn from and maybe add to my Rules of Trading. (Coming soon!) Anyone else suffer from this? Comments appreciated.

Finché c' é vita c' é speranza

I have Italian roots. My grandmother was a Cassini, and supposedly I am descended from the famous family of astronomers by that name (although sadly the fortune that they presumably had at one time failed to descend to me which is why I am trading every night trying to build up my own).

Every two years I become Italian, once England are eliminated from the World Cup or the European Championships, which is quite often after two games, if indeed we have qualified in the first place. But this year, I don’t think I’ll bother.

I dated a girl from the Netherlands once, and spent two weeks in Amsterdam chasing her sister (another story) so maybe I should become Dutch. Don't like the shoes too much though, although Heineken is ok.

Then again, I visited Croatia many years back, before it was even called Croatia, and I like the chequered shirt design… Bit too Nazi-ish for my liking though.

Speaking of which, can’t ever see myself becoming German (my Mum would never speak to me again) although I did have a good time there for the 2006 World Cup. At least until the Portugal game which rather rules me out of cheering for the Portuguese.

France? Well, obviously no self-respecting Englishman could contemplate the idea of becoming a Frenchie.

So I guess I’m just a casual observer this year, but then again the Italians always start slowly and a win against France coupled with a Dutch win over Romania and WE’RE through to the quarters!! Avanti Azzurri!!

And the subject? It's an Italian proverb, meaning - "While there is life, there is hope" Something to dwell on as the odds drift away from you.

Mark Reynolds

“Luck has a peculiar habit of favouring those who don't depend on it”

And Lady Luck is very fickle. I’ve written before about how some days you can’t do a thing wrong, and other times you can’t put a foot wrong. Lady Luck was with me late last night. I was playing on the baseball game between the Ney York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks, and had laid the Mets at 1.15 in the 7th inning when they were 3-0 up, hoping that the D’Backs would score a run or two at some point and shift the price a little so that I could go Green All Over. They came up empty in the 7th and 8th, and in the 9th they managed to get two runners in scoring position albeit with two outs. Down to their last strike, and with 1.01 being taken (not laid by me unfortunately), some guy called Mark Reynolds hits a three run homer to tie the game up and make my day. The Mets did go on to win, but I was already green and in bed by that time. (Apologies to non-baseball people – in cricketing terms I guess it was like needing a six off the last ball and getting it!)

Keeping Track

In the year to April 2007, average earnings of full-time male employees were £498 per week, while for women it was £394, according to the Office of National Statistics. [BBC News 19/2/08]

I like numbers. They motivate me. If I am trying to lose weight, I record my weight each day. If I am trying to exercise more, I record the miles run or biked, or the yards swum. If I am trying to cut down on alcohol, I record how many days a month I drink. If I am trying to save money, I record it. It’s the same with investing. I record my daily wins and losses by sport in a giant spreadsheet, and keep track of my average daily profit/loss for the past 10 days, 30 days, year, and my average gain per day since I started. Well, not quite since I started, but once I decided to take this investing seriously. So as a result, I have data for every day since New Year’s Day 2005.

I have daily targets which I try to meet, starting with the first target of recording a profit, and rising to the ultimate target of beating my best ever daily total. In between are targets to beat such as my 10 day daily average, my 30 day daily average, my yearly daily average, and my all-time daily average. And then there’s the ‘average earnings for a full-time person’ target (see above) to beat.

The temptation can be to take risks in an effort to achieve these targets, but I have learned not to force anything, but to await the opportunities which sometimes be like London buses and come along all at once, before vanishing for days. Do many of you out there reading this keep records? Any ideas?

Boring

I have been told (indirectly over on John the Gambler's blog) by ‘poetaster’ that my blog is boring. His comment was “Cassini, your blog is boring- thats why no one ever reads it. You shouldnt offend your one and only reader”, the latter part of the comment being a reference to my teasing John The Gambler about his love for beer. Nothing wrong with liking beer - I’m partial to a pint myself on occasion – I was simply surprised to see ‘Beer’ languishing outside of his top 5.

Anyway, if John is my only reader, then how does 'poo-taster' know that my blog is boring? And why would it have over 4,000 hits since March unless John has nothing better to do all day than read my blog over and over… ok, so maybe thinking about it, that IS a distinct possibility (just kidding John).

So my blog is boring? Well, maybe so. Betting is one of those things in life that is tremendously exciting (not always in a positive way) for the person doing it, but is not quite so exciting to sit and read about. For example, try reading books on trading. They tend to be a little dry to say the least, entry-points, exit strategies, position size etc, yawn, yawn, yawn, so I’m not sure what ‘poo-taster’ is expecting from a blog about gambling.

My intention when I started this was to post every few days about things going on in my gambling world, and try to stimulate some debate about ideas and observations that I have. I guess it’s fair to say that this hasn’t exactly happened. I have had very view comments posted, so the blog falls victim to the vicious circle of no comments, meaning no interest, meaning not much incentive to come up with something new the next day.

So do I give up, continue with the blog as it, make changes to it but continue on a gambling theme, or make changes and discuss wider issues such as “Why there is no God”?

Comments please.

Euro 2008

The second most important tournament in international football got under way this weekend and all four games went to the favourites, and all four finished under 2.5 goals.

I like to back the unders in these tournaments, especially the first round of the group games. I usually take a relatively large position pre-game, and then lay it off as time ticks away. The early goal in the Croatia-Austria game was slightly concerning, but I changed my trousers, kept my nerve, and everything worked out OK.

It always seems that the price on the unders drops too steeply for the first 3 minutes or so, before it stalls for another 5 or 6 minutes. For example in the Germany - Poland game, the unders at the start was 1.89 / 1.90 - after three minutes the price was 1.81/1.82. That's a nice move in three minutes. Strangely, the prices then stalled for five minutes, and then dropped precipitously from 1.8 / 1.81 to 1.67 / 1.68 in two minutes. I need more data, but does anyone have a system that is based on backing the unders and laying it off early in the game? Comments, as always, very welcome.

Full-Time?

The Betfair forum frequently features posts asking "should I go full-time?" and seeking advice. Quite often, these posts are from people who signed up to Betfair in the last few months. Possibly they have got lucky and think their luck will last for ever, or they have a system that has performed well, but more likely they are looking to impress with the implication that by asking the question, they are Mr. Big Shot. Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on the subject.

First off, why trade full-time? Why not trade evenings and weekends? There are plenty of trading opportunities, and a full-time job is not something to give up in a hurry. A job is not just about the paycheck - there are benefits and retirement income to think of, plus most jobs are at least somewhat social in part, and of course most people will be earning a lot more in the future once they have put in the hours (or years).

Why does it matter what other people do? If you have an edge, then you will be able to make trading pay. If you don't, then you are gambling, and the odds will catch up with you sooner or later. Anyone seriously considering full-time trading should be aware that systems don't always work for ever. The market is always changing and edges can disappear overnight. It would be a downer to quit your job on a Friday, start trading full-time on Monday only to find that your system no longer worked. A good trader would need to be able to adapt quickly and have some kind of a backup plan.

For sure, some people do make trading pay, at least for a while, but it is not an easy way to earn a living. I trade part-time, and over the last two years have matched my regular income, but it is stressful enough doing it as a hobby. I can't imagine how stressful it would be if it were my only income source.

I know one guy (see The Experiment listed under other blogs) requested his hours be reduced so that he could spend more time trading, and that might be a reasonable option, but in general, until you have a solid few years of profitable trading behind you, I would be very hesitant to say that full-time was the way to go. There's plenty to be made part-time.

Good Riddance To May

May should have been a good month. My old Mum turned 80, and a couple of Bank Holidays in there should have meant fun and laughter all round. But it was not a good month on the investing front. In fact my first losing month since April 2007, and a £5,599.15 loss to be exact.

Where did it all go wrong? In a word - 'basketball'. In too big on a couple of markets that I should probably have stayed away from, or at least reduced my risk, but as always with losses, learn from mistakes and move forward. I also lost too much on a 'fun' bet on Aussie Rules footy, which came down to the last kick which was missed. NOT my idea of fun.

Some months everything goes for you, and some months nothing seems to. Maybe the gods of gambling took May off for holiday, but I hope they are back for June. Two down months in a row, and the doubts start creeping in, and we're not at home to Mr. Self-Doubter this year. Good luck for June to everyone (anyone?) reading this.

At least my month wasn't as bad as the poor sap who offered Italy at 1000 in their Volleyball game against Japan yesterday. Italy won six points in a row, tied the game up and went on to win.

To Post Or Not To Post?

John The Gambler posted something earlier today which irritated me just a little, probably because I took his comments personally.

He wrote “Why these part-time bloggers even bother is beyond me. If you don't blog everyday give it up, and do us all a favour.”

Could it be because most people have lives John? They go to work, they come home, they relax in a manner (manor if very rich) of their choice (dinner, movies, Betfair, a good book, a few beers, a lover etc.) and then they go to bed (with lover if lucky). Blogging is a part-time hobby for most people, to be done as and when time allows.

And how does not posting anything at all “do us all a favour”? Some of my posts are incredibly thought-provoking and challenging, and surely it is better to post something of substance once a week, than to post daily but say nothing related to the supposed theme of the blog, in John’s case – ‘A Year In The Life Of An Online Gambler’. He closed his online account two months ago!

Incidentally, the definition of a blog is “a website, usually maintained by an individual, with regular entries of commentary, descriptions of events, or other material such as graphics or video.”

Note that the definition states regular entries, not frequent, and certainly no mention of daily.

Perspective

Courtesy of John the Gambler, this blog kinda puts everything into perspective. Next time you think you've had a bad day, remind yourself that you really haven't.

http://baldyblog.freshblogs.co.uk/

Bankroll / Money Management

I have been asked to describe my money / bankroll management techniques. In my reply to the request, I suggested that the answer might be disappointing, because the simple answer is that for the type of investing that I do, it is not possible to manage a bankroll in the same way as it is for ‘system’ type gambling.

To try to explain this further, my style is to look for value. In an earlier post I mentioned a Celtics NBA game against the Sixers where the score was tied with 5:01 left in the game. I saw a chunk of money wanting to back the Celtics at 1.3 and this seemed to me to be a good value lay, so I layed every penny that was available. Had there been £2 trying to back Boston at that price, I would have taken it, and had there been £16,000 there I would have taken it. The key point is that I felt that the price was very good value and with an instantaneous decision to be made (the in-play market waits for no man) I do not have the luxury of time to work out the appropriate stake using the Kelly criterion even if this were possible, which I very much doubt given that whilst similar situations can repeat in basketball, identical situations do not. I do limit myself to losing no more than £5,000 on any single investment by not requesting Betfair to raise my limit, so this does guarantee that no single loss can exceed (currently) 21% of my bankroll. Also, it is rare indeed for me to find a value bet with anywhere close to this amount of money available.

When I offer odds, I tend to stay within the £1,000 to £2,000 risk range, (4.34% - 8.68%) but if the market is liquid and I feel there is a good chance of being matched for more at a value price, then I will offer, or attempt to back with, more than this amount.

So the bottom line is that there is no hard and fast rule for managing my money. If I see or can get value, then I am in for anything up to 21% or so. It all depends on the situation.

My mistake a couple of days ago was to risk £4,000 on a bet that was borderline value. That is too close to gambling for my liking and I will take the loss on the chin, learn the lesson, and put it behind me.

One thing I do seem to be able to do is learn from my mistakes. I started this venture with £100 in March 2004, and by September 10th 2005, had turned this into £21.40, with the balance at over £1,000 in-between. At that point I decided to get serious about it, treat it as a business rather than a hobby, and make it work. Despite the setbacks this week, I feel I am well on the way. I may post a lessons learned / rules to invest by some time.

As always, comments welcome, but please don’t post any links to casino gambling sites. They are not for me.

John The Gambler

I have written previously about the famous 'John The Gambler' but once again he is calling it quits so far as gambling is concerned. He had a well documented bad loss a while ago, although I never did read what the amount was, but in a way that is quite irrelevant. The fact is that however much it was, it was more than John was comfortable losing. 

Since I'm coming off two bad losses myself, I thought I might comment on this. For me, I am usually fairly disciplined, and just made a stupid decision on Sunday to involve myself in a game that I knew I wouldn't be able to see to its conclusion. My daughter is much more important to me, and as my very understanding girlfriend said to me later, in a few months/years I won't recall losing the money, but I will remember seeing my daughter in her show. She's very wise, as well as beautiful.

Yesterday's loss was just one of those losses that I still consider was value, but just didn't work out. What I'm not so happy about is the size of the loss, but I have learned another valuable lesson.

There are other reasons why I am comfortable with my losses, if comfortable is the right word. I funded my Betfair account with £100 back in March 2004 and haven't put in another penny since, so any losses are not directly out of my pocket. The other reason is that I have put together a long run of winning months, and although I am disappointed to see that come to an end, in a way it's a reality check for me not to take winning for granted so all-in-all I shall just take the past two days on the chin and get back on the horse with a solid profit on the Celtics tonight.

And this Betfair lark is also great entertainment for me. This may sound crazy, but the amount of money I win or lose is not so important to me as the mental challenge of finding value, or to put it another way, outwitting someone else who is sitting at home weighing up the odds in his underpants. Poor use of English grammar I know, but quite intentional.

The money is just numbers in an account, so it's easy to lose touch with reality. I would never dream of putting down £400, never mind £4,000 in cash, but numbers on a screen are a little like betting in a casino with chips. It's not really money. Except that it is.

How about a few comments? Like John said in his blog, it gets lonely out here.

http://john2e.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/05/the-final-count.html

So THAT's Why They Call It Gambling

Two bad days on the NBA to report. Sunday, I made the mistake of getting involved in a game knowing that I would only be able to watch the first half and of course got caught on the wrong side of a run by the Celtics who were up by nine at the half. The question was cut my losses and 'red-up' at a loss of £1,846.89 or leave a bet out there in the hopes that it would get hit. I decided to take the loss and of course the Cavaliers came back to within 1 in the fourth quarter which, had I been home, would have meant not only getting out with no loss, but also with a healthy profit. But my mistake for getting involved in the first place.

Now to Monday's loss. Hornets at home in Game 7, down by 10 against the Spurs at half-time, and the Spurs trading at 1.5x. I was quite convinced that the Hornets would make a run at some point, and I guess they did by getting within 3 with 1 minute left in the game, but unfortunately that was too late to allow me to get out of another big loss. £3,885.62 to be precise. All rather depressing really, but that's life. I've had a stellar run of 12 winning months, so if May ends up being a loser, and it will take a minor miracle for it not to, then it's not the end of the world. I hate to think that I was chasing on the second bet, but if I am honest with myself, I was. I do take big positions where I think there is value, but I held on longer than I should have done, so lessons learned, back to basics and onward and upward.

There's Something In My Eye

Congratulations Pompey

It's been a long day today with very little betting. A friend of many years, (I don't have many) over 20 of them, hails from Portsmouth and I have given him much abuse over the years about the fortunes of his local team. So when he invited me to a party to watch the FA Cup Final today, I could hardly say no. Of course his wireless Internet wasn't working, but some things in life are more important than betting. Yes, really.

Not the greatest of games, but finals are usually disappointing since teams are there to win, not to look pretty, but it was great for him to see his team win the cup. Probably a once-in-a-lifetime moment, but one never knows, and I'm sure that like myself, he never seriously thought he would see his team win the Cup. How much more it meant to him than it would have meant to any supporter of the 'Big Four'. Winning gets (almost) as old as losing, (although betting is an exception I guess) but surely even the most fanatical United fan would admit that winning any trophy for the nth time isn't as precious as winning the first or the first in a lifetime.

One sad fact - of the guys at the party, I was the only one who has never seen his team win the Cup. One day. Please God...who just happens to have his own blog - check it out:

http://stuffgodhates.wordpress.com/

All Or Nothing

How fickle the gods of gambling are. After a positive start to my Sunday with a lay of the Over 2.5 goals in the Chelsea - Bolton game (I love those pre-game odds-on Overs bets) my day got steadily worse.

I then lost all the winnings from the above bet when the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim couldn't hold on to a lead, and market illiquidity meant that I was unable to lay my 'value' investment off.

I did admittedly make a small sum on the Utah Jazz - Los Angeles Lakers game, but lost that and much more on the San Antonio Spurs - New Orleans Hornets game when the Spurs just ran away with the game after half-time.

New strategy for the NBA play-offs - back the home team pre-game and go to bed. 14 of 15 conference semis have been won by the home team. Cue a win for the Boston Celtics tonight...

And finally a value bet in the late baseball game between the Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox went pear shaped although the Red Sox did come within a hit of giving me a nice win. They do say it's a game of inches.

And so after twelve consecutive months of profitablity, I am now in the red for May but with 21 days to recover and maintain my streak.

But it does seem to me that there are times when everything you touch turns to gold, or at least green, and other times when nothing you do is right.

NBA Trading - Thoughts

BB’s NBA trading blog I mentioned earlier got me thinking. It’s no secret that successful trading means buy low/sell high, or in Betfair terms, back high/lay low. Of course, this is easier said than done. If you read books on trading, usually written with the financial markets in mind, you will read about entry and exit points. It’s not difficult to devise these for non-financial markets. For example with basketball, you could set a rule that if a game is tied or the pre-game underdog is within ‘x’ number of points at the end of the first quarter, and the price on the pre-game favourite has moved less than ‘y’ percent, then this is a signal to enter the market.

One big difference between highly liquid financial markets and relatively illiquid basketball markets is the inability to set a stop-loss. BB mentioned in one post http://tradethenba.blogspot.com/2008/04/denver-la-game-5.html that he layed the Lakers at 1.17 and had a stop loss at 1.10 should they continue to play well. Personally with a lay at the 1.17 mark, I wouldn’t be too concerned about a stop-loss. The downside is already very limited, but when entering a market at a higher price, the inability to set a stop loss can be expensive. Just look at tight games in the last couple of minutes. The price doesn’t smoothly drop in .01 increments, but plummets from say 20 to 5 to 2.3 to 1.2 with little activity between those points.

A recent example was last night’s game between the Cavaliers and the Wizards. Note that all times and prices are approximate because in the heat of battle I do not have time to record everything. Essentially the situation was that with a minute left, the Cavaliers were up by 5 points and were trading at 1.05 or so. For me this is a great lay opportunity. The last minute in an NBA game can last for an eternity, and if I am ever told by a doctor that I have a minute to live, I am going to request that it is the last minute of a close NBA game.

I digress. Laying at 1.05 meant that the downside was minimal, but the upside was huge. One score by the Wizards, and the price moved nicely out to 1.25 or so. Then the Wizards got a stop, and scored again – now the price was out to 1.7 or so. When the Wizards took the lead with about 3.6 seconds to go, the price on the Cavaliers had shot out to 6.0 or so, and as it turned out, the Wizards ended up winning by that 1 point so for a risk of 50, one could have let the bet run and made 1,000 or backed it back to go Green-All-Over and nicely in profit after the lead was trimmed to 3 or to 1. I should mention that I didn’t manage to lay any of the 1.05 myself, but I have used this strategy in the past to good effect.

Rather than wait until late in the game, my strategy revolves around laying teams after they are on a 6 to 10 point run. Basketball is very much a game of momentum and with the market being driven by fear and greed, it lends itself perfectly to trading. I can’t really reveal my precise method because there’s a substantial subjective element to it. I try to get a feel for the game, and weigh factors like whether it’s the home or the road team that is under-performing, what stage the game is at, the foul situation, which team needs the win more etc.

Basically I look for value. I look to lay a team that in my opinion has been backed too low or vice-versa. It is very seldom that a chart of the prices will show a steady decline down to 1.01. There are always runs within a game and greed means that the price is driven too low, and then when the run is over and the other team starts a come-back, the fear element kicks in and the market moves back.

Comments welcome, please.

Back With A Vengeance

Well, the holiday is over, and it's back to normal. Not too much trading over the last few days, and yesterday saw me drop £614.49 on the Suns who managed to miss at least a dozen free throws and made no less than seven turnovers in the fourth quarter. So a bet that was value ended up a loser which happens, but it is immensely annoying when it does. Why is it that whenever you have a chunk of change on basketball, the team you are on goes to pieces? It seems that way anyway!

But tonight I called the Cavs / Wizards game a little better, though I did get a little lucky. I laid the Cavs big at 1.5 when it seemed to me the price was too low for a two point game. The Wizards took a six point lead so I went Green-All-Over though more green on the Wizards. With a late run in the last minute the Wizards won the game by one, and I made £500. (A Cavs win would 'only' have made me £350...)

There's a new blog which you might check out if you trade basketball. It's a little late in the season to be starting the exercise, but interesting anyway. 

It's at http://tradethenba.blogspot.com/

All Quiet on the Investment Front

It's all been a bit quiet on the investing front lately. I've had my two kids staying with me for a few days and would rather enjoy their company than win some money, although I have managed to do the latter. Woke up early this morning to find that the San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies game was still going on. For some reason the Padres were available to lay at 1.2 with the score tied, and I took advantage of this, laying it off when the Padres duly failed to score. 

They did have a couple on base, but with two outs I considered laying at this price great value. This happened twice, the second time a few innings later, and I ended up with a nice profit. I think there was a baseball newbie in the market because when the Rockies took a 1-0 lead at the top of one of the extra innings (the game went to 22!) someone backed them at 1.01, although sadly I didn't have the foresight to lay at that price.

As I mentioned previously, my soccer lay system is on hold until the new season, although I may use it for some of the summer leagues in Scandinavia or MLS. I've been dabbling with the under/over markets with some success, but it seems to me that the soccer markets are so efficient that I have no edge, and these in-running bets are just gambles.

The NBA regular season has ended, and the play-offs start this weekend. Like the football season, it's been tricky betting on NBA with the season winding down and teams resting key players, and some big handicap spreads that I tend to avoid at the best of times. But with the play-offs starting tomorrow, there should be some close games and hopefully some value bets available.

Football Lays Saturday 12 April

17 lay selections today, and they are: Ayr United, Brechin, Bristol Rovers, Bury, Hereford United, Huddersfield Town, Lincoln City, Mansfield Town, Nottingham Forest, Ross County, Salisbury, Sheffield United, Stockport, Stoke City, Stranraer, Torquay United, and Walsall. I haven't yet had time to eliminate any teams that are playing against teams with nothing to play for, but this list may well be trimmed for that reason.

Update: Upon further review, I am removing Bury and Mansfield Town from the above list of selections. So 15 selections 'only'.

Results: Not a good day today, with no less than 8 of the 15 lay selections winning. With the bank still in profit, I think this is time for the system to take a break until next season. It seems that at this time of year, there are too many fixtures that are meaningless to either one or both teams, or more meaningful to one team than the other and strange results are being seen. Lay selections winning 6-1 away for example. The summer will give me a chance to delve a little deeper into the system and try to improve the selection criteria ready for 2008-2009. How time flies when you get older.

Football Lay Thursday 10 April

One lay again today; Ebbsfleet United (3.0) at Halifax Town despite the latter team letting me down two nights ago. Halifax have an incentive since a win will take them out of the relegation places whilst Ebssfleet can take it easy. The bank currently stands at £1,073.53 and I am laying to £10.85.

Result: Halifax duly obliged and beat Ebbsfleet 1-0 tonight, and the bank increases another £5.15 to stand at £1,079.11.

Football Lay Wed 9 April

One lay today; Ross County (3.0) at Airdrie United. Both teams are looking for promotion and thus have something to play for. The bank currently stands at £1,068.38 and I am laying to £10.85.

Result: Ross County lost 0-2, so the bank increases by £5.15.

Tuesday Football Lays 8 April

The Lay System has generated five selections for tomorrow. They are: Portsmouth, Swansea City, Forest Green Rovers, Kidderminster Harriers and Forfar Athletic.

I shall be laying each of the five to a loss of £10.85, but following a comment from A. Nonymous last Saturday it may be wise to exclude two of these selections, namely Portsmouth and Forfar as they are both playing teams that have nothing to play for. He/she has a valid point, so I shall be watching these two results with special interest. Forfar are the shortest price at 2.74, Portsmouth are longest at 3.3, and the others are in-between at 3.25 (Swansea), 3.0 (Forest Green) and 3.15 (Kidderminster).

Result: I guess stranger things have happened in the history of football, but Kidderminster was not one of my system’s best ever selections winning by no less than 6-1 at Halifax, who previously had lost just three times at home all season. Such is life. I guess Halifax are resigned to playing in the Conference North next season.

Portsmouth also let me down by trying too hard in one of the two games where my selection was playing a team with nothing to play for. At least Forfar didn’t win, but I would have been better off excluding both these selections.

All in all, not a very good night with two losses from just five selections. I shall update the numbers later. As the commenter on Saturday said, we are entering a tricky time of the year with so many games involving either one or sometimes both teams who have nothing to play for. I am thinking that I shall heed his advice and drop those matches from my list. Watch this space.

Total Match Points Markets in Basketball

These markets must be the most annoying anywhere on Betfair. I've just been watching the Memphis Tigers / UCLA game and the unders looks a shoo-in with less than three minutes left, and Memphis up by double figures. But no. UCLA keeps fouling, time after time, and for what? The game is lost. Memphis might miss the occasional free-throw, but they're not going to miss anywhere near enough to make the game even close. I can only guess that they do it just to annoy me and cost me money. Actually, the worst thing about losing this kind of a bet is not the money. It's knowing that somewhere out there, someone out-witted me. That is not something that sits well with me! But onward and upward. Another game coming up, and so long as the lesson is learned (stay away from these markets), no real harm I suppose.

Update: A poster on the forum just commented that there were 26 points in the last three minutes - in a game that wasn't even close!

Saturday Baseball

Two selections for tonight.

On the mound for the Padres tonight is Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy, who picked up a win on opening day, so my selection is the San Diego Padres (1.7) to beat the admittedly impressive Los Angeles Dodgers. When the Padres take the lead, I shall be looking to lay off at around 1.35.

Result: Padres won 4-1 with a full game from Jake Peavy.

I am persisting with the Detroit Tigers at 1.7 to beat the Chicago White Sox with Dontrelle Willis pitching his debut in the American League. Their awful start can't continue for ever. (Famous last words).

Result: First, the good news - the Tigers went 3-0 up. Last, the bad news. They are still totally inept and lost 3-5. Maybe this awful start CAN last for ever.

Saturday Football Lays April 5

The bank stands at £1,070.28 so today I am laying to 1% on 20 selections, which are: Sheffield Wednesday (playing at noon) followed by Tottenham Hotspur, Sunderland, Bristol City, Burnley, Charlton Athletic, Hartlepool, Oldham Athletic, Tranmere Rovers, Barnet, Brentford, Darlington, Macclesfield, Morecambe, Oxford United, York City, Dunfermline, Livingston and Airdrie at 3:00pm and at 5:15pm, Exeter City. All prices are between 2.84 and 3.6.

The system to date has a strike rate of 82.1% so I'm prepared for four losers, but anything less than six would be great. Six, ho-hum. Anything more than six, not so great.

Update: For some reason, a big drop in the price of the home team has eliminated three of my selections from contention, and they are Barnet, Macclesfield and Dunfermline. Early this morning I left lays in the market, and my strategy is to leave them alone until 2:30 and see how many have not been taken. One of the four unmatched selections was Tottenham Hotspur, who had drifted slightly and I adjusted my bet accordingly. The other three (mentioned earlier) had all drifted significantly so I am dropping them. I did not have this issue last week, so it will be interesting to see how those teams fare today. The Barnet bet had actually been partly matched at 3.2, but then drifted out to 3.75 so I was able to green-up on this one (for peanuts, but I am not allergic to peanuts, especially risk-free ones). If anyone knows why the price drifted out so much on any of these games, please enlighten me. Presumably some significant team news.

Result: Sheffield Wednesday did not win, so a winning start to the day.

Result: 12 of the other 16 games played so far resulted in the predicted four losses (next week I'll try predicting no losses) so the bank now stands at £1,085.24.

In the final game of the day, I have layed Exeter City for £4.52 at 3.4 to lose £10.85.

Result: ...and shouldn't have done! Exeter won, so I lost.

The bank is now at £1,074.38 - up just £4.10 on the day. As I said in the original post - ho-hum. But a profit is a profit.

Tennis

Does anyone sitting at home actually manage to make money consistently by betting on tennis in-running?

I long ago realised that I was always going to be behind court-siders or people who had access to court-side information, but I have had some success with 'playing the numbers' (backing when the weight-of-money indicates I should, and then laying off) but it is stressful to say the least.

Tonight I am looking at the numbers jumping around as Andy Roddick is playing Nikolay Davydenko and with Davydenko a set up, I decided to jump in with a bet on him at 1.73. As per usual, (or so it seems), the price then immediately moves against me, and my heart rate goes over 100, (or at least it feels like it). About two hours later, ok, more like five minutes later, the price is back down to where I backed at, and then drops still further, to 1.66, at which point I lay-off, leaving zero on Roddick, and all the green on Davydenko.

Why did I lay off at that time? I think it's because the market initially moved against me, so psychologically I say to myself "If I can get out of this even, I'll be happy" and thus when the opportunity to get out with a nice profit presented itself, I took it. Tennis being what it is, had I waited just a few more minutes I could have layed off closer to 1.3, (at which point I went Green-all-Over) and it wasn't that long before the game was over in straight sets and I could have greened up at 1.0x.

Maybe I should play with smaller amounts (I put £900 on and wouldn't have been happy to lose that!), or lay-off part of the bet. Maybe I should have let the bet run, and traded out at a loss only if the market moved against me. In the end, I came away with £47.23, about 5% of my initial investment, but I can't help feeling I should have made more. But a win is a win.

One of the problems with Betfair, when compared with the stock market, is that there is no ability to put a stop-loss bet into the market, for example a bet to lay at 2.0 to close my 1.73 position for a controlled loss, since that would be immediately matched if I didn't want it to be taken (the bet is still in good shape) or would remain unmatched if I DID want it to be (the bet is awful and no one is interested!)

Anyone any thoughts, comments or ideas?

Friday Baseball

Slight after-timing here - I didn’t realise the game started so early, but I am on the Detroit Tigers (1.7) with Nate Robertson pitching to finally get their first win of the season against the Chicago White Sox. I can’t see the Tigers’ losing run continuing much longer, and as I write this, the game is tied at 2, top of the 3rd.

Update: Should have just kept quiet. The inept Tigers fell short again, and now have a less than impressive 0-4 record to start the 2008 season.

Friday Football Lay

Today, there is one selection for the Football Laying System (I need a catchy name for this, any ideas?) which is Dagenham and Redbridge (3.2) playing at Accrington Stanley in a League Two fixture. I am laying £10.65 hoping to to win £4.64 (pre-commission).

Result: Dagenham and Redbridge (both...) lost, so the bank increases to £1,070.28 and the selections tomorrow, and there will be a few, will all be layed to 1% of that, i.e. £10.70.

Thursday Baseball / Basketball

Tonight's selection is the Detroit Tigers (1.58) to get their first win of the season behind Jeremy Bonderman in their home again against the Kansas City Royals.

Only three NBA games tonight, and nothing of value. At this time of year, with teams looking forward to the play-offs, one needs to be careful. Quite often a team would appear to be better off losing a couple of games and dropping down to play a weaker team, albeit a higher seeded one and players are often rested in these situations or if the play-off spot is locked in and they have nothing more to play for. I shall probably keep an eye on these games as they go in-play though. Prices can be volatile and value can often be found during the game. Good luck.

Update: Cleveland Cavaliers (1.32) are the pick for this morning. As always, I shall be looking to go Green-all-Over when the price drops to 1.11 or so.

MLB Result: Tigers were hopeless (again) last night. They lost to the Kansas City Royals 1-4 to open the season 0-3 at home. Not what I expected from them at all!

NBA Result: The Cavaliers managed to drop a 14 point lead, not that unusual an occurrence in the NBA, and lost 108-111, but because I layed off at 1.11 to go Green-all-Over, I'm writing this update in green. Cleveland actually traded as low as 1.04. More evidence that going green-all-over in the NBA is a good strategy.

March Summary

Overall March was a good month. My football bets showed a healthy profit with the 'going-live' of my football laying system. I initially noticed an edge back in the summer, but because the games were an obscure mixture of Scandinavian games, Austrian, Under-20 World Cup matches, MLS, pre-season friendlies and others, I didn't pay too much heed to it.

Earlier this year I came across the original spreadsheet (I'm a nerd - I record everything) and decided to monitor English and Scottish fixtures for a while. As of 31st March, 274 games had been tracked and the pattern I'd noticed in the summer was again evident. Although this is still a work in progress, the current selection criteria would have resulted in 95 winning lays from 116 selections.

Like many others, I read the story of Maria and her laying system with much interest, and although there are some sceptics around, I have no reason to doubt that her discipline and selections combined to make her a nice sum of money. Inspired by the story, I decided to start with a bank of £1,000 and attempt to replicate her success. The big difference between her system and mine is that with only three outcomes possible, the odds I am laying will seldom exceed 4.0. The longest I have layed so far was 3.8. Therefore, her formula for calculating the bank percentage to risk each time is redundant, and I am laying to a fixed 1%. However, I may tinker with this in the future and adopt the idea of having different percentages for different bands of prices. For now I am keeping it simple.

Also, for ease of calculating winnings, I am assuming a 5% commission deduction, although my discount rate is currently 16%. Therefore my actual profits will be slightly higher than those reported.

At the end of March, the system had 18 wins from 21 selections, and the bank stood at £1,052.01 laying each selection to lose £10.62.

Wednesday Baseball / Basketball

Tonight's selection is for the San Diego Padres to continue their strong start to the season behind Greg Maddux at 1.74 and beat the Houston Astros.

In the NBA, look for the Cleveland Cavaliers (1.64) to be too strong for the Charlotte Bobcats but as always this time of year, be wary for any team news on resting players. Good luck.

NBA Result: The Cleveland Cavaliers won a close game 118-114.

MLB Result: All-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman blew a 6-5 lead in the top of the 9th, and the Padres fell to a 6-9 loss. However, I am putting this result in green because my lay at 1.1 was taken allowing me to go Green-all-Over, although not as green on the Astros as I was the Padres. The Padres actually traded at 1.01 (gubbed as they say) when they were one out away from a win in the top of the ninth - someone got a little too greedy. Very poor liquidity though.

Tuesday Baseball

Today's baseball selection is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (1.86 with Jon Garland pitching) to beat the Minnesota Twins. The Angels came up a little short yesterday, but I expect them to win tonight.

MLB Result: Angels won 9-1