Opinions - Summer Set

Anonymous from Somerset has some advice for us Elo aficionados:

None of the top professionals use ELO ratings. You are heading down the wrong path especially at the start of a new season.

Well, that's good to know.

Except for a few things.

1) The guy apparently has a short attention span, and failed to make it to the end of my post where I pointed out that the ratings are actually called Elo, not ELO, so immediately some doubts as to his credibility as an expert are raised. When you profess expert knowledge of something, it's always good to know how to spell it - especially when it is comprised of just three letters.

2) No one can know as a certainty that "none" of the top professionals use Elo ratings. For this statement to be true you would need to know not only all the "top professionals", but also the methods of all the "top professionals", and I doubt that any "top professional" would reveal his methods too willingly. I suspect that customised Elo ratings are used fairly widely, albeit often with other filters. What does the term "top professional" mean anyway? Is it based on income? Am I a "middle professional"? Are there "bottom professionals" and if so, what is their line of work?

3) The statement, as a fact, that I am "headed down the wrong path" is equally absurd, and if he had read some of my other posts, would have seen that I am well aware that any rating system needs to be used with extreme caution at the beginning, and indeed the end, of seasons.

While a constructive debate on the merits or uselessness of Elo ratings, or indeed any subject, is to be welcomed, (the comment from my post a couple of days ago may have been anti-Elo, but the commenter did at least support his comments with some reasoning) anonymously knocking an idea without a single fact or counter-idea in support of your comments is just silly, but again, it does give me something to write about.

There are many ways to skin a cat, and while Elo ratings served me well last season, I am well aware that it could have been a statistical fluke. But then again, because the ratings were relatively new, it is possible (he says optimistically) that the ratings will prove even better in their second season. The rating algorithm, for want of a better word, will never be finalised, but an ongoing work-in-progress. The factors I use, and the weightings applied to each of them, will always be subject to adjustment.

Gambling And The Gods

News from the BBC today that more than 5,000 arrests have been made in Asia, (China, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) for illegal football betting. As the article says

Gambling is mostly illegal across Asia. Despite the strict controls, though, it is hugely popular, hugely prevalent - it's just ingrained in the culture. There are calls for it to be legalised, and controlled. But that goes against some religious strictures, some social conservative strictures. They argue this is not the way they want society to go.

Clearly, if attempts have been made to fix matches or even events within matches (the so called spot-fixing), then this is cheating and needs to be addressed, but if it is individuals choosing how to spend their money, then the governments should not be involving themselves. “Religious strictures” my arse. Gambling comes as close to being a universal a trait as you can find. It is present in all major civilizations in some form or another.

Although I would hope that most people reading this blog are intelligent enough to have discarded religion from their lives (yes, there is a correlation between religiosity and intelligence), based on the IP addresses that access this blog, any readers who have not yet eliminated all gods from their belief system are most likely to worship one from an Abrahamic religion, and almost certainly the same one that their parents worship. (One's religion is very much influenced by your country of birth, and your parents' beliefs). If you are down to one god, then ask yourself why you reject the others and perhaps take that final step to atheism. It doesn’t hurt.

But until that day, it’s interesting that the Protestant and Catholic churches have very distinct views on gambling.

A strong moral opposition to gambling and lotteries has been an integral part of the Protestant movement since its inception, and many Protestants perceive gambling as a sinful activity. Although individual Protestant churches vary in the intensity with which they oppose gambling, the opposition to gambling is quite general. The largest Protestant group, the Southern Baptists, is particularly strident in their censure of gambling. In contrast, the Roman Catholic church maintains a tolerant attitude towards moderate levels of gambling and is less disapproving of gambling activities. It has even used gambling in the form of bingo and charitable gaming events as an important source of fund-raising.

The United Methodist Church’s 2004 Book of Resolutions says: “Gambling is a menace to society, deadly to the best interests of moral, social, economic, and spiritual life, and destructive of good government. As an act of faith and concern, Christians should abstain from gambling and should strive to minister to those victimized by the practice.”

The position of the Catholic Church on gambling is summarized in the New Catholic Encyclopedia: “A person is entitled to dispose of his own property as he wills. . . so long as in doing so he does not render himself incapable of fulfilling duties incumbent upon him by reason of justice or charity. Gambling, therefore, though a luxury, is not considered sinful except when the indulgence in it is inconsistent with duty.”

Further, The Catechism of the Catholic Church (2413) states: “Games of chance (card games, etc.) or wagers are not in themselves contrary to justice. They become morally unacceptable when they deprive someone of what is necessary to provide for his needs and those of others. The passion for gambling risks becoming an enslavement. Unfair wagers and cheating at games constitute grave matter, unless the damage inflicted is so slight that the one who suffers it cannot reasonably consider it significant.”

Among other prominent religious denominations in the U.S., people of Jewish faith are like Catholics and accept gambling activities more readily, while the gambling attitudes of Latter-Day Saints (Mormons) are aligned more closely with those of Protestants.

The Catholic approach to gambling (as opposed to their approach to just about everything else) seems almost sensible – gambling is fine, so long as it is with money you can afford to lose.

Weighting For Elo

Anonymous from London has a thought:

When trumpeting ELO and the fact most of these statistical models use ELO, have a think:

If ELO is so widely used then the market-makers (vague term I know, not time to be more specific) will of course be aware of it.

If ELO is good then the market-makers will use it.

If that is the case then you have no edge from using ELO - you need a different approach.

Or, you need to use an ELO rating system which is superior to those used by others.

Typed this in a bit of a rush, may not quite make sense so feel free to pull apart.

Agreed, it would indeed be a big shock if market-makers were unaware of Elo ratings, and it is true that if all Elo rating systems were the same, then it would not be possible to gain an edge using them, but the key is that not all Elo ratings systems are the same.

The basic Elo algorithm is fairly simple. The complexity comes in to play when you start adding variables, for example how much weighting to give a certain competition, how much allowance do you award for home advantage, what differences do you include to account for the different ‘personalities’ of leagues, how do you reward a one goal win versus a five goal win, do you accept the result alone or do you factor in other statistics such as shots on goal or corners, is a 2-0 win with the second goal in stoppage time the same as a 2-0 victory sealed 20 minutes earlier etc.?

Everyone has different ideas on these. The data for football these days is available to all of us and while I do not know if the bookmakers use Elo, another method, or a combination of methods (most likely) to price up matches, given that differences exist between the prices offered by individual bookmakers and on the exchanges, it is fair to assume that similar, but nevertheless different, pricing models are used.

And where differences exist, opportunities exist.

All rating models are likely to have their strengths and weaknesses. For example, it was apparent last season that, for whatever reason, the selection of draws in my Elo based system worked very well in the English Premier League, not so well in other leagues.

So it’s worth remembering that a big advantage punters have versus bookmakers is that the former always have the choice of whether to bet or not. We have the luxury of being patient and using a sub-set of the predictions if and when we determine that we have an edge.

It would be highly unlikely that an Elo based system would consistently be more accurate across all leagues than those used by bookmakers, but the wealth of data available and modern day computing power means that at least the playing field is relatively level, and that a good rating system, selectively applied, has the potential to be profitable.

Finally, a small point perhaps, but it is Elo, not ELO. Elo is not an initialism. Elo ratings are named after Arpad Elo, a chess master who come up with the basic idea for the United States Chess Federation to improve upon the Harkness rating system they formerly employed.

Kaggle

Anthony Goldbloom of the data prediction website Kaggle.com sent me this piece on the competition they ran for quants to predict the World Cup.

In the lead-up to the world cup, Kaggle invited statisticians and data miners to take on the big investment banks in predicting the outcome of the World Cup. Now that the final has been decided, we can take a look at how Kagglers stacked up against the quants at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS and Danske Bank in forecasting the World Cup.

In total, 65 teams participated in the Take on the Quants challenge. JP Morgan finished 28th, Goldman Sachs 33rd, UBS 55th and Danske Bank 64th. The betting markets fared better, finishing 16th.

The winner of the competition was Thomas Mahony, an Australian economist. His approach relied on Elo ratings with an adjustment for home country/continent advantage. His strategy correctly tipped Spain to win, the Netherlands to finish second and Germany to finish in the top four. The investment banks all had their top picks bow out early (UBS, Goldman Sachs and Danske Bank picked Brazil and JP Morgan picked England), hurting their overall performance.

The next big question is whether Kagglers can also outperform the quants in forecasting financial markets (we won’t have to wait long to find out, as Kaggle is currently hosting a competition to predict stock price movements).

I did a little poking around and for those like me who have faith in Elo ratings, not only was it good to see that the competition winner used these, but also:

When statisticians entered Kaggle’s World Cup forecasting competition, they had the option to give a brief outline of their methods. A glance at these description tells us what ingredient statisticians think is most important in predicting the World Cup winner. The variable that appears in most statistical models isn’t FIFA ranking, betting prices or the aggregate salary of a team’s players. It is the Elo rating. 

With the new football season just around the corner, I have made the updates to my spreadsheet so that superiority will no longer be rounded to a whole number, but will be to 0.25 of a goal. I'll wait until September before using the ratings for real, to give the summer changes and promotions / relegations time to settle a little, and also I shall be away from my computer until the middle of the month anyway.

More Resigned, More Civil, More Intellectual

I wrote yesterday about “The Big Short” by Michael Lewis, and thought I had made it clear that the book was written in a style that made a complex subject very understandable. Apparently at least one of this blog’s readers in Tel Aviv, Israel, did have trouble understanding it, because he thinks you need to be an "intellectual" to do so.

This is not the case. As this reviewer put it:

If you read only one book about the causes of the recent financial crisis, let it be Michael Lewis's, "The Big Short."

That's not because Lewis has put together the most comprehensive or authoritative analysis of all the misdeeds and misjudgments and missed signals that led to the biggest credit bubble the world has known. What makes his account so accessible is that he tells it through the eyes of the managers of three small hedge funds and a Deutsche Bank bond salesman, none of whom you've ever heard of.

All, however, were among the first to see the folly and fraud behind the subprime fiasco, and to find ways to bet against it when everyone else thought them crazy.

Again, this book is highly recommended.

An intellectual is a person who's found one thing that's more interesting than sex - Aldous Huxley

Lay CDOs - For Three Years

I have recently finished reading “The Big Short” by Michael Lewis, who is fast becoming one of my favourite authors. He has a way of making the driest of subjects most interesting. "Moneyball" was the first book of his that I read, and I have written before that for anyone interested in baseball, this is a very good read. For those who prefer to wait for the movie to come out, filming begins in Oakland this week, with Brad Pitt playing the role of Oakland Atheltics GM Billy Beane.

But back to "The Big Short", where Michael Lewis has achieved the near impossible by making the story of subprime mortgage backed Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) not just understandable, but also interesting.

While I have noted in the past the similarities between financial market investments and those in sporting markets, the book reaffirms this view with a definition of investing as “betting with the odds in your favour”.

Significant differences are found in both the amount of money in the market, and in the time frame over which the outcome is determined. The principal players in the book held their positions for around three years before the bet, or investment, against the CDOs paid off, but when it did the reward was huge, in the millions or billions of dollars.

Trading the sports markets is typically a much shorter time-framed event. The longest are probably the quadrennial World Cup / Euro football tournaments, the next Presidential / UK Election market or the next Manchester United Manager market, which has been running for years and may yet have a few more to run!

But typically sports markets last longer than a week. Excluding the bigger races, horse racing markets must typically be formed and settled in a matter of a few minutes. For the sports that I trade, the in-play time is typically less than four hours, and the markets are often only formed a day or two ahead of event time.

The story of "The Big Short" revolves around a number of individuals who each came to the realization that subprime CDOs were being rated too highly by the credit agencies, and that big Wall Street firms really didn’t understand the risk they were taking with them. The individuals found a way to effectively bet against them, and although it took three years or so for the bet to pay off, ultimately it did, and in a big way. They had correctly calculated that the odds were in their favour, stuck by their bet when it appeared no one else was sharing their opinion, and ultimately they hit the jackpot when they were proven right. People were being encouraged to take out mortgages that they could not afford, or would not be able to afford once the two year teaser rate expired, and however much the banks kept the price of the CDOs buoyant either through ignorance or deceit, ultimately the reality was that the loans would be defaulted upon.

Sports markets are of course different. The nature of sports means that what should happen, doesn’t always happen. It’s what makes sports so fascinating and interesting. After all, if stronger team A always beat weaker team B, then sports would not hold so much appeal. Quants would just run the numbers and announce the winners. Somehow, not quite as exciting. The element of chance is always going to be a factor. Players have good days and bad days. A gust of wind or a bad bounce can make all the difference, but in the long run, if your selections are fundamentally sound, the profits will follow. Just not in the millions, most likely!

Sir Geoffrey On World Cup FInal Day

I wonder if Sir Geoffrey Charles Hurst MBE wakes up on the morning of every World Cup Final in a cold sweat, worrying that his achievement of a hat-trick in the final might be matched or even beaten later that day? Does he watch the game or putter around in the garden pruning his roses hoping there's not a sudden arrival of reporters at his door asking for his reaction?

Ronaldo scored his second for Brazil in the 79th minute of the 2002 final and Sir Geoff must have breathed a sigh of relief when he was substitued on 90 minutes, but that was nothing compared to four years earlier.

Zinedine Zadane had scored two goals by half-time, and that must have been an uncomfortable second-half for England's hero.

We have to go back to 1978 for the previous time that one player scored twice in a final, with Mario Kempes scoring his second for Argentina in the 104th minute.

I do have a few concerns about the accuracy of the entry for Sir Geoff in Wikipedia. It claims:

The son of a lower-division footballer, Hurst's own footballing career began when he was apprenticed to West Ham United. When he was scouted for West Ham United, he played for a Sunday team in the Tandridge League (Surrey area), Chipstead.

The Tandridge Football League wasn't formed until 1976, which was the year Geoff's career was winding down playing for the Seattle Sounders and Cork Celtic. He did open Chipstead's clubhouse though. There's a plaque on the wall commemorating the occasion, which perhaps is the source of the confusion.

My son really DID play for Chipstead for many years, and I have high hopes that in 2018 he will surpass Sir Geoff's record with four goals in the World Cup Final at Wembley, perhaps v Germany.

Update: All was calm in Hurst Castle as no one came close to usurping Sir Geoffrey's great record.

World Cup Final

A perfect outcome in the third place match with Overs and Germany both coming in for a nice pay day. That's nine consecutive overs, and eight consecutive third place finishes for UEFA countries.

The final is a little tougher to call.

I have read that Spain are on a run of eight consecutive 1-0 wins in knock-out matches, but this is incorrect. True, they have won all three such games at this World Cup by that score, but prior to that they lost 0-2 to the United States in the 2009 Confederations Cup - the game that ended their record runs of consecutive wins and without defeat. They did win the Euro 2008 final 1-0, but their other knock-out wins that year were 3-0 over Russia in the semi-finals and a win on penalties over Italy in the quarter-finals after a 0-0 draw.

Nevertheless, Spain do not concede many goals in these matches. The only game where they did was v USA, a game where Spain dominated the statistics, but lost. The USA had two shots on goal that game, and scored both. Spain had 29 shots, 8 on goal, won the corners 17-3, and had 56% of possession.

Spain to keep a clean sheet are 2.42, Spain to Win to Nil are 3.35. 3 of 6 finals since 1986 have been 0-0 at Half-Time, two have gone to Extra-Time, two have been decided on Penalties, and 67% were Under 2.5 goals. Including recent Euro finals, and the numbers are 60%, 40%, 20% and 80% respectively. Round numbers as you might expect from a small sample.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 looks value with the 0-0 at Half-Time worth a bet at 2.44. The Elo ratings and the bookmakers have Spain as favourites at 1.59 but there's not too much between the teams and I'm sticking with the Netherlands, ideally winning on penalties after a 0-0 draw. For those who took my pre-tournament tip of the Netherlands at 10.0, go Green-All-Over after the first semi-final, or now if you haven't already!

The Netherlands have been in one World Cup shoot-out losing to Brazil in the 1998 Semi-Finals, while Spain have been in three, losing twice (to Belgium and South Korea) and winning once (v Ireland).

Bronze Medal Match - Butt Debut

Today sees the 17th third place game in World Cup history, and of those 17, just one has finished as a draw after 90 minutes. Four have been scoreless after 45 minutes, and 14 have been Over 2.5 goals, which is unsurprisingly favourite at 1.78.

The last eight matches have all been Over 2.5 goals, including all six matches since the current format was adopted in 1986. Two of those have been close however with Italy - England scoreless until the 71st minute, and the third goal not scored until the 86th, and the last match in 2006 between Germany and Portugal didn't see the thirds goal until the 78th minute.

Germany have been in four of these matches, winning three, and Uruguay in two, losing both, the last being in 1970 to West Germany.

I am on the Overs, and Germany to win in 90 minutes, but wary of the fact that this is always a match that the two teams didn't want to be involved in. Klose on the bench and Butt making his debut suggest Germany are a little more relaxed about this game, (drifting to 2.03) but when the game starts, the players want to win the game like any other, and the game is played competitively enough.

Psychic Cephalopod

Paul has gone for Spain, but before you all lump on, a word of caution from one of the best science blogs out there.

The BBC is covering Paul's 'abilities' too.

I'll be looking at the numbers myself. Boring I know, but the scientific approach works so much better in all walks of life than the touchy-feely new-age psychic nonsense out there.

Someone In Ohio Is Not Happy

Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert posted this letter on the team's website after LeBron James' announcement he was leaving for the Miami Heat.

Dear Cleveland, All Of Northeast Ohio and Cleveland Cavaliers Supporters Wherever You May Be Tonight;

As you now know, our former hero, who grew up in the very region that he deserted this evening, is no longer a Cleveland Cavalier.

This was announced with a several day, narcissistic, self-promotional build-up culminating with a national TV special of his "decision" unlike anything ever "witnessed" in the history of sports and probably the history of entertainment.

Clearly, this is bitterly disappointing to all of us.

The good news is that the ownership team and the rest of the hard-working, loyal, and driven staff over here at your hometown Cavaliers have not betrayed you nor NEVER will betray you.

There is so much more to tell you about the events of the recent past and our more than exciting future. Over the next several days and weeks, we will be communicating much of that to you.

You simply don't deserve this kind of cowardly betrayal.

You have given so much and deserve so much more.

In the meantime, I want to make one statement to you tonight:

"I PERSONALLY GUARANTEE THAT THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS WILL WIN AN NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BEFORE THE SELF-TITLED FORMER 'KING' WINS ONE"

You can take it to the bank.

If you thought we were motivated before tonight to bring the hardware to Cleveland, I can tell you that this shameful display of selfishness and betrayal by one of our very own has shifted our "motivation" to previously unknown and previously never experienced levels.

Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.

Sorry, but that's simply not how it works.

This shocking act of disloyalty from our home grown "chosen one" sends the exact opposite lesson of what we would want our children to learn. And "who" we would want them to grow-up to become.

But the good news is that this heartless and callous action can only serve as the antidote to the so-called "curse" on Cleveland, Ohio.

The self-declared former "King" will be taking the "curse" with him down south. And until he does "right" by Cleveland and Ohio, James (and the town where he plays) will unfortunately own this dreaded spell and bad karma.

Just watch.

Sleep well, Cleveland.

Tomorrow is a new and much brighter day....

I PROMISE you that our energy, focus, capital, knowledge and experience will be directed at one thing and one thing only:

DELIVERING YOU the championship you have long deserved and is long overdue....

Dan Gilbert
Majority Owner
Cleveland Cavaliers

I don't claim to be an expert on the NBA, but I have watched hundreds of games over the last few years, and found the end of the Cavaliers last match versus the Celtics very strange viewing. Typically NBA teams claw, stratch and fight for every point in the last few seconds of a play-off game, but against the Boston Celtics it appeared that the Cavaliers, including James, just gave up. It was strange to watch, and not much was said about it at the time, but there may well be some revelations now James has moved on. Those are some angry words from the owner.

Miami Heat are now favourites for the NBA title next season. Not surprising really. Given that Dwayne Wade won a championship just four years ago, and that Chris Bosh is highly rated, the addition of LeBron James in a game that has just five starters is a mini Dream Team. Their coach, Erik Spoelstra, is relatively inexperienced, and is the NBA's youngest coach, but waiting in the background is team President and seven time NBA champion (as player, head coach and assistant coach) Pat Riley who is a former Laker. What price a Lakers - Heat NBA Final?

Money To Burn

I'm sure most of you read this already, but next time you have a bad day, think of this Anonymous person:

A William Hill betting customer who bravely staked a record 500,000 euros on Germany to beat Spain has lost his wager - the largest World Cup bet ever, after a late Carles Puyol goal saw Spain win the second semi-final last night.

William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “Not only did the 500,000 euro bet lose, but so did the 100,000 and 80,000 euro bets on Germany to win the tournament, and another 75,000 euro wager on them to get past Spain”

“Even though we have clients with £25,000 and £10,000 on Spain to win the World Cup we will be going into the Final celebrating the fact that Germany aren't there.”

“Germany losing that game made a difference of around £5million to us - it was almost certainly our best World Cup result ever. Now we'd like the Dutch to round off a fantastic tournament for us by beating Spain”

Decisons, Decisions

The sporting world is anxiously awaiting “The Decision”. Where will LeBron “The King / LBJ” James be playing next season? ESPN have a one hour prime time special to announce it; a little build up, the decision itself, and then 45 minutes of analysis.

The Decision is also having an effect on options prices.

He could stay at Cleveland, and earn more than he would playing anywhere else, plus a lot of respect I would suggest, but right now it seems he is leaning towards joining Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade in Miami and opting for Championships over money. The Chicago Bulls have a chance, or he could join Carlos Boozer in New York where his “Decision” is being announced. The hapless Clippers seem to be out of the running for his services.

All will be revealed in less than six hours, and it’ll be interesting to see what effect “The Decision” has on the NBA Winner market for 2010-11. Summer League starts today or tomorrow for those who can’t get enough NBA, but I suspect we won’t be seeing King James in action whoever he decides to join.

Update: No big surprise. James has made his decision, and will play for Miami Heat next season. Computer predictions have the Heat going 66-16 next season, and winning the East. The Lakers three-peat faces a big challenge.

FIFA have made a decision too – and the Three Lions make it to the World Cup Final after all. Howard Webb and his team have done England proud! I remember Jack Taylor awarding the Netherlands a penalty in the first minute in the 1974 final against West Germany, and later reading how Franz Beckenbauer had strolled over to say “Taylor – you’re an Englishman” to him.

Semi-Final - Germany v Spain

The Netherlands beat Uruguay but with too many goals to make it a perfect day, and UEFA gets to win its first World Cup outside of Europe.

It sounds redundant to say that any World Cup semi-final should be a great game, but we've had some in the past that haven't exactly set the pulse racing: Germany v South Korea and Brazil v Turkey from 2002 spring to mind. However, a repeat of the 2008 Euro Final with no strong favourite has a lot of promise.

The Elo ratings have Spain on top, but whereas Spain are exactly where they were when the tournament started, Germany is a lot higher and there's not too much between them now. Germany's wins over England and Argentina were, from an Elo perspective, better than Spain's wins over Paraguay and Portugal.

Historically goals are at a premium in World Cup semi-finals with 77% finishing under 2.5, and this will be my main bet. There is a little value in the draw at 3.45, but someone has to play the Netherlands on Sunday, and I'm picking Germany to qualify at 2.06. The half-time 0-0 also looks value at 2.72. At least one semi-final since 1986 has been scoreless at half-time, and Spain have been 0-0 in their last two matches. Yes, it's a small sample, but a small bet to add a little interest.

My tip of Netherlands pre-tournament at 10.0 is looking tasty right now, and my interest in taking Elo ratings more seriously at the international level has been piqued. I was looking at the Euro qualifiers yesterday - they start in just two months!

Sports Betting Professor Rubbish

The Sports Betting Professor, Rich Hill, has given me a truly fantastic opportunity to make my fortune but I feel bad about keeping such a great offer to myself.

Seriously, the guy must think we are all complete idiots.

‘Lottery research’? ‘Smart pick’ feature? ‘Most of it is junk’? How about ALL of it?

Here’s his latest load of rubbish (the link is not activated because I am sure most of my readers are too smart to waste their time on it, but if Anonymous is interested, I can always include it):

I'm not sure if you've seen or heard about the Lotto products that are out there. Most of it is junk but there is one worth your time.

If you want the best lottery software, then check out the "Lottery Circle" software.

Click here to check it out:

Lottery Circle

It is by far the most powerful and up-to-date lottery software on the
market right now.

Here's why...

...While other lotto softwares just pick you numbers (based on your own
research), this lottery software does the RESEARCH FOR YOU and also
helps you pick them instantly with the "smart pick" feature it has.

Click here to check it out:
Lottery Circle

The "smart pick" is to pick lotto numbers from numbers that tend to hit more often in future drawings such as hot numbers, cold numbers, and overdue numbers.

...Lottery authors from all over the world have found that people have better success choosing these 3 types of numbers to win more than just any type of numbers.

That's why you want to incorporate frequent numbers, least frequent numbers, and overdue numbers in your lotto combinations.

The PROBLEM is that it takes HOURS AND HOURS to find out the hot numbers, cold numbers, and overdue numbers on your own.


...If you try to do lottery research yourself the old way, you have to go to the lottery website and manually record the hits of all the numbers one by one.

That just takes WAY TOO LONG!

...That's why a lottery retailer set up this first lottery website which provides you a software that INSTANTLY generates the lottery analysis such as hot numbers, cold numbers, and overdue numbers for ALL lottery games.

It is UPDATED every single day. That means, you won't ever have to do your lottery analysis research by hand ever again.

Click here to check it out:

Lottery Circle

...Plus, it works for ALL the lottery games including:
- pick 3
- pick 4
- pick 5
- pick 6
- and much more

Plus, it works with virtually ALL lotto systems out there since almost all of them require you to look for frequency analysis.

...Regardless of what lotto system you use, the "Lottery Circle" will help you to instantly generate the best numbers to play.

Click here to check it out:

...Plus, it ALSO works worldwide including these lottery games below.
- USA Lottery (all games)
- Canada Lottery (all games)
- Euro Millions Lottery
- United Kingdom Lottery (all games)
- Puerto Rico Lottery (all games)
- Argentina Lottery (all games)
- Australia Lottery (all games)
- Brazil Lottery (all games)
- Chile Lottery (all games)
- Colombia Lottery (all games)
- Costa Rica Lottery (all games)
- France Lottery (all games)
- Germany Lottery (all games)
- Italy Lottery (all games)
- Mexico Lottery (all games)
- Panama Lottery (all games)
- Spain Lottery (all games)
- Uruguay Lottery (all games)
So if you want to take advantage of this powerful lottery software, then join the "Lottery Circle" website today.

You will save time, energy, and start to win more in all the lotto games.

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Talk to you soon...

Rich

Click here to check it out:

Lottery Circle

Semi-Final - Netherlands v Uruguay

The tipsters seem unanimous that Netherlands are the pick today, and the consensus favours the Under 2.5 which were my unimaginative picks a couple of days back, and the prices haven't moved since then. I also think the HT 0-0 bet at 2.54 is value.

As exciting a game this could be, I'm a little concerned that the Netherlands may be looking ahead to the Final already. Stay focused.

Still on the World Cup, and someone told me a few days back that only two teams had ever come from two goals down in World Cup finals matches. I was able to think of three off the top of my head, one team coming from 0-3 down to win, to put that number to rest, but after doing some research it's still not that high a total. Any guesses? They can be anonymous!

Several blogs seem to have gone on hiatus, while Edgehunters has called it a day. Meanwhile, the suspense of waiting for Adam Heatchcote's next trading tip is killing me.

Semi-Finals By The Numbers

After the quarter-final matches, the World Football Elo ratings now have a dead-heat for first place between the Netherlands and Spain. Germany are ranked fourth, and Uruguay are sixth.

World Cup Semi-Finals since 1986 have seen the overall draw hit 33% of the time, but when the 'strong favourite' matches are excluded, this number increases. When recent (1996 on) Euro tournaments are factored in, the overall percentage of draws rises to 45%. The draw looks good value at 3.45 for the Germany - Spain Euro 2008 re-match.

Under 2.5 goals in semi-finals matches in the World Cup hits at 83%, and including Euros still comes in at 75%.

The Netherlands are strong favourites against Uruguay, and every odds-on favourite in the knock-out phase has won in 90 minutes, all but one incidentally were Over 2.5. A little misleading perhaps, given that Brazil were close to odds-on at 2.0, and Spain left it late, but they all count.

Nevertheless, Netherlands at 1.68 is the pick versus Uruguay, with Under 2.5 goals in both matches (1.65 NET-URU, 1.76 GER - SPA).

60% of matches are 0-0 at half-time, (20% finish that way, and 30% go to Penalties.

The Spain - Netherlands final is available at 2.66, which is value based on the To Qualify markets, and finally, the winning confederation market saw CONMEBOL traded as low as 1.52, but their hopes now rest with Uruguay and are out to 14.5. Europe clear favourites to win their first World Cup outside the continent.

Hot Dog Hubby

With no World Cup action today, the eyes of the sporting world were no doubt on the United States and the traditional July 4th Nathan's Coney Island Hot Dog Eating contest sponsored by the International Federation of Competitive Eating.

There was high drama when former champion Takeru (The Tsunami) Kobayashi, banned from competing by a contractual dispute with the rival Major League Eating, (I am not making this up), tried to rush the stage after watching Joey (Jaws) Chestnut retain his title.

Kobayashi was arrested and led away in handcuffs. For those into stats, and who isn't?, Chestnut won by 11 hot dogs against a weak field, and well short of his world record total last year when he ate 68 hot dogs, buns and all, in 10 minutes.

I had Chestnut value at 1.2 on the Elo ratings, but unfortunately was unable to find any market, which is surprising for such a prestigious sporting event. Get your acts together betting exchanges!

How demeaning the term 'wifey' is, yet at least one blogger thinks it acceptable to use the term in approximately 1 in 3 posts.

The urban dictionary definition is:

Wifey - adjective for NAIVE, DUMB, STUPID, girl who has no mind of her own and is only good for serving the needs of her "HUBBY"

The wifey hands him over her paycheck, while he spends it on drinking with his boys and hitting up the clubs. While wifey, ever the housewife, sits at home blowing up his phone in between either breastfeeding, doing the dishes, or watching TV.

UEFA 3 CONMEBOL 0

So much for the draw! The most one-sided Quarter-Final since the new format started in 1986 saw an extremely solid win for Germany 4-0 over Argentina. After all the talk of South American domination, no European team has lost to a non-European team in the knock-out stage, and are again on course to fill three of the semi-final places as per usual, comprising the top three in the betting as well. And the other quarter of the draw had no European team in it.

As I wrote before the World Cup started, Argentina looked too short, and Netherlands looked the best value. With the lay of Argentina now in the bag, and the Netherlands at 10.0 looking good, down to 3.35, the month is off to an excellent start.

As an Englishman, I'm a little confused about who I want the eventual winner to be. I don't particularly want to see a first-time winner and have the 'importance' of England's place as a former winner diluted, but that leaves just Uruguay and Germany.

Nothing against Uruguay, 1954 was before my time, but as a European I suppose it has to be Germany, but I'm English, so maybe it wouldn't be so bad after all if the Netherlands won it after all. They were a little unlucky in the 70s, losing twice in the final, both times to the host nation.

So we should see a repeat of the Euro 2008 final between Germany and Spain next week. Spain's price v Paraguay has come in to 1.46 as I write this, and the 1.53 is looking even better.

QF - Day Two

A nice return from Friday's games, with both being close as expected. One draw with a penalty shoot-out was a good return.

Today's first game is a repeat of 2006, with Germany and Argentina meeting again. If this game is as exciting as that one, and finishes the same way, I'll be happy. The draw is 3.45.

The second game is a Quarter-Final featuring a strong favourite, with Spain at 1.53. Paraguay under-performed against Japan, and Spain are value to win in 90 minutes. They beat Chile in the group stage, a team who had a higher Elo rating than Paraguay do, and their price that day was a similar 1.52, and were this game not a quarter-final I would expect the price to be shorter. I think class will tell, and Spain will prevail.