UEFA Champions League 13.9.11

There are relatively few inter-league games, so I don't have a huge amount of confidence in my ratings when it comes to the UEFA Champions League or Europa League games, but for interest, the Chelsea v Bayer Leverkusen market for today's match has Chelsea a tad short.

My spreadsheet has Chelsea at 1.7, but they are currently at 1.53. Not too much of an edge on the Overs, with 1.96 available versus my calculation of 1.83. 1-0 is a little short too, 7.2 available to lay while I have this score at 9.3.

The Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal prices are close to my own, with no significant edge on the Match Odds market, but the Under 2.5 goals is slight value at 1.96.

In the third of the inter-league games, Barcelona are too short at 1.28, but the AH -2.0 at 2.32 is looking good value. 2.74 on the Unders looks huge as well. I will probably see how this plays out with a view to trading out fairly early. The market clearly expects more goals in this match than the recent league records of the two teams suggest, but league form doesn't always carry over into other competitions, and recent league form is not exactly deep. Just for fun in other words. No laying £20k on any of these picks!

Speaking of which, who is backing that kind of money at 1.22 with half the game to go? It was all from one account, so it wasn't a number of individuals. Money is relative of course, but risking a sum that size in a sport as volatile as the NFL seems a little reckless.

Free Spin

Betfair co-founder Mark Davies filed a claim last month for close to £4.5million. The merits of the case are not for me to comment on, (although I will later), but one comment on the Betfair forum amused me. The author, viva el presidente!, likened Davies' situation with that of a Betfair client who experiences an unplanned outage having just taken a position and who is then unable to close out as it heads south.

While the value of money is relative, I would think that seeing £4 million evaporate has got to hurt.

Speechly Bircham is facing a claim worth more than £4m from Betfair founder Mark Davies and his wife Miranda for alleged negligence and/or breach of retainer for advice the firm gave them when they tried to sell their shares in the company.

In a claim lodged in the Queen's Bench division of the High Court last month (16 August), the couple, who are trustees of the Giselle Davies Family Trust and the Davies Family Trust, which both hold stakes in online gambling company Betfair, argue that that the losses caused by Speechly's advice stands at around £4.48m.

According to the writ, the couple instructed Speechly private client partner Charles Hutton that they wanted to sell their shares when Betfair went public in October last year, with the intention of selling when shares reached at least £13 each.

When the company listed on 22 October, shares were trading at £15.50, at which point Davies was told that selling was not possible because the shares had not been registered properly.

With share prices continuing to fall, the Trusts have not sold the shares, with the price per share standing at £6.08 at the time the claim was issued.

The form states: "Neither trust has sold the Betfair shares given the loss that each would thereby sustain. Insofar as may be necessary the claimants will say that the defendant is liable for the totality of the losses sustained because the defendant's breach of retainer/negligence placed the trusts in a position where they were unable to sell at the price that was available."

The pair are claiming damages and interest. Carter-Ruck litigation lawyer Rebecca Toman is advising the Davies on the claim. Mark Davies resigned from Betfair in July 2010.

Speechly declined to comment.

Why it would be Speechly Bircham's responsibility to check that the shares in question had been properly registered, I'm not sure, but there is likely more to this case than immediately apparent.

Something similar, although on a 'slightly' smaller scale happened to me several years ago, in 2000, when I deposited funds in a new share / options trading account.

When I was told everything was set, I bought shares in four companies, which almost immediately headed south. A couple of days later, I received a phone call telling me that they needed a new cheque, as they had (I forget the precise details) endorsed it incorrectly or something. Whatever it was, it was their error. Oh, and could I bring it over to them that afternoon or they would have to close my positions. "Well no, I am at work right now" I told them, but if they would like to send a courier to pick it up, that would be fine. No, they wouldn't do that, so they closed my position for a loss, and took the hit themselves, as I had done nothing wrong. I did receive a lawyerly letter asking for repayment, but when I produced my supporting evidence, (always keep records), they dropped the case. Only a cynic would suggest that, had the shares in question all increased in value, I would have taken a break from work and run it over to them without question.

Lows And Highers

Not the easiest of weekends for football, with all the big boys winning except for Liverpool who lost 0-1 at Stoke City, to a penalty after out-shooting the hosts by no less than 20 shots to 6. Stoke scored from their only shot on target, while Liverpool's 11 were to no avail. The Bolton Wanderers v Manchester United was another interesting one from a statistical viewpoint. Bolton had more shots on goal (20 to 13) and shots on target (13 to 9), yet lost 0-5. (Data courtesy of Football Data). A couple of years ago, the results would have been entered in the spreadsheet without further ado, but these days the ratings adjust based on other statistics. On the evidence of this past weekend, it's not helping, but it's early in the season and the better the quality of the statistics entered is, the better the output.

The XX Draws had their second consecutive poor weekend, with no winners from seven selections. The last two games were perhaps a little unlucky, going down to 82' and 86' goals, and then there was the previously mentioned Stoke City v Liverpool game. I'm recording the minutes in which bets become losers, and the average is 54' right now. Whether it would be profitable to lay these bets off at half-time or not is one avenue for further investigation.

The value bets in France were profitable, 1.13 points and 1.02 on the Match Odds and Over / Under 2.5 markets respectively, and in the Match Odds markets in Italy (2.35) and Spain (4.82) but other than that, it was a bleak weekend for football. Football Elite had no Recommended Bets this weekend, and his one Short List bet was Caen to beat Toulouse whereas my value bets suggested a back of Toulouse - who won 1-0. Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks also went 0 for 3 this weekend - Peter had Stoke City v Liverpool as did I, and also Sunderland v Chelsea (1-2) and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur (0-2).

While we are talking about Pete Nordsted, he has stopped his baseball ratings given that we are now at that time the season where commitment isn't necessarily what it should be. Betting is hard enough to make profitable when your selections are trying, never mind when the focus is on resting players and / or bringing in second stringers.

Fortunately there are other sports going on, and I made a small profit on the back of Djokovic's win in the US Open last night. Also in the US, the NFL is back with the first week of action now at an end. Mark Iverson hosted an NFL Trading Room for the Baltimore Ravens v Pittsburgh Steelers game, with myself having a small walk on part. I believe that about 47 people attended, and most seemed to find the session helpful. Unfortunately, from a trading perspective, the game was about as bad as they get - pretty much a 1.10 express train. I took a loss on this game myself, but had more success on other games, and while I would like to blame the distraction of trying to sound knowledgeable as an excuse, in truth, the one-way nature of the game probably meant that it saved me from a bigger loss. The final game of the weekend was the best, when a lay of £20,000 @ 1.22 on the Oakland Raiders at half-time paid off, not with a win, but at least with a profit. It's not often I'm disappointed with a four figure profit, but this was one of those times. The screenshot shows the Gang of 47 what is possible with laying at short odds in the NFL when things go a little more according to plan. If it had REALLY gone to plan, the Denver Broncos would have won, but you can't win 'em all. Onward and upward.

Switching Horses

The last post addressed the issue of how to handle matches where winning for one or both teams isn't important. Peter has decided to end the season for his MLB Daily Picks, a system that has been hugely successful this season, but which over the past few weeks has struggled, in my opinion at least in part because of the inclusion of teams with little to play for. 

22.5 points profit is a good return on the season, although Peter is clearly disappointed after topping 46 points in early August. Only natural perhaps, but as a glass half full type of guy, I see 22.5 points won and a lesson learned to pull the plug on dis-incentivised teams sooner. P made a comment on a topic which I should have covered in my original reply. (It was in my mind at one point, but my mind wandered). He writes:

Further to this discussion, it seems that based on your experience you concur that laying the short-priced home favourite from August onward is conceptually problematic for the reasons you have explained, although again we only have one season's worth of data. In your opinion, does it then follow that a strategy of BACKING the short priced home favourite in the final two months of the season would/should be profitable?

There's no straight answer to this, since as always, the decision depends on the prices available, but if the home favourite has an incentive to win, while the road team doesn't, it wouldn't be unreasonable to factor this into the ratings calculation and compare the new price with what is available. I don't maintain ratings for baseball (the importance of the pitcher makes this too much work) but Peter generously includes the prices he considers value, so this could be a starting point. Teams with no apparent incentive to win will still win games. Athletes don't like losing, and in baseball players are always looking to boost their individual statistics because it means money to them, speaking of which, the much anticipated movie Moneyball is set for release in the UK on 25th November. If you enjoy baseball or statistics in sport, mark your calendars.

Equally anticipated is the NFL game later today between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's an AFC North Division game, and promises to be a close one. Since 2007, no game has seen a victory margin of more than 9 points, but the real reason the world awaits with such anticipation is because the game will be covered in Mark Iverson's NFL Trading Room. Game time is 6pm, but be warned that there could be a significant delay in kick-off while America remembers the 3,000 people who died ten years ago on 11/9/01 or 9/11/01 as the Americans put it. How ever bad your betting results are today, remember things could always be a whole lot worse.

Quitting Time

I mentioned Peter Nordsted's comment / question yesterday, and here it is:

Just a quick one - the ratings on my MLB selections are not performing as they did up to the middle of August as it peaked at around the mid 40 point mark only to come down to around the mid 20s.

My colleague states the following:

The last part of the season often provides crazy results. Large part of MLB teams is not 100% result oriented during this period. The teams that have no chance of reaching the playoffs put emphasis on testing new young players, giving inexperienced players more playing time. This significantly impacts the outcome of the game. Then there are teams with secured or almost secured place in playoffs. They are reducing pitch count to their pitching stars to keep them fresh for the playoffs and also they are more often resting hitters. The last part of the teams are those that are still fighting for the playoff spot and for them we should be "sure" they are giving 100%.

My question is in your opinion when should you stop betting on the MLB

It's a good question that applies to more team sports than just baseball, and is also relevant within single games rather than in the context of a full season, as I shall get to later.

To address Peter's question specifically with regard to baseball, the answer in my opinion is that there should be no hard-stop on MLB betting, rather you should stop betting on teams that no longer have an incentive to win.

Peter's colleague is correct in his assessment. When post-season play is no longer realistically attainable, the focus for teams moves to preparing for next season rather than the current season, and the opportunity is taken to bring players up from their minor league teams. It's also true that teams with a play-off spot guaranteed will rest star players, and reduce the number of pitches starters throw. So when you eliminate the teams with nothing to play for, you are left with those still in with a chance of post-season play, and indeed, these are the teams who should perform as expected. If you look at the standings right now, there are several teams with an E in the Elimination number (E#) column and a few more who are realistically all but eliminated. In the American League right now, I would only consider backing the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Texas Rangers. In the National League all three Divisions and the Wild Card are all but sewn up. Slim pickings in other words. It's usually August when the E# starts coming down and it may be no coincidence that mid-August saw the high point in profits. (It was pure luck that I happened to start my holiday two days later!) Opposing chasing teams such as the Angels, Giants, Red Sox or Cardinals or teams still not quite there (e.g. Yankees, Rangers) could be risky.

Other sports can be even more of a minefield, and in the US, there is often actually an incentive to lose games. Finish with the worst record in the NFL, and there's no relegation. Instead, the team is rewarded with the fist pick in the upcoming draft, and an easier schedule next season! The NBA has attempted to address this issue with a Draft Lottery (meaning that the worst team is not assured the number one pick), and it's less of an issue in the NHL and MLB where the draft is of less importance.

In football, half of the EPL is playing the season out with a few games to go, and while clubs still have a small incentive to win (more prize money) many use the last few games to blood young players and teams just go through the motion with players trying to avoid injury and strange results abound - and not only in Italy's Serie B. Even winning teams put out weakened teams ahead of bigger games. It's not something new. The problem with pulling the plug on betting too soon is that, combined with the caution generally exercised early in the season, you can be left with a window of six matches in December / January from a 38 game season when form is reliable. I exaggerate of course, but my point is that it's very easy to find excuses for not putting your money where your mouth is. There's probably someone out there saying to avoid December and January because of the heavy pitches.

As for the in-game incentives I mentioned earlier, it is why I am not a big fan of handicap betting, or any 'by-product' markets for that matter. Games are played for wins and points, not to win by an arbitrary total or to take the most corners. When the Lakers are up by 17 late in a game, the team don't care if they win by 14 or more (covering an example spread of -13.5) or by 13. Teams typically care about winning, not so much about the margin. With a lead of 17, and the game won, starters are rested, and bench players are given a run out. Anything can happen, and there is often value late in games on the handicaps (if the liquidity is there - a big if).

Bottom line - never assume that teams want to win.

Buffett On The Premium Charge

Followers of super-investor Warren Buffett will no doubt be aware of his recent comments concerning his willingness to pay more in taxes. His statement that

I have never seen anyone shy away from a sensible investment because of the tax rate on the potential gain

is one that anyone impacted by Betfair’s Premium Charge can probably relate to.

A profitable method is still profitable whether you are paying 5% tax on the profits, 20% or 60%, a fact that I am sure Betfair took into account before implementing, and then tightening, their Premium Charge screw. Whether or not the reduced profits make it worth your while continuing with, will vary from person to person and depend on the time spent to generate the profits. If you have an automated process that takes little to no time and which generates profits, then you accept the change and continue on.

If your method requires you to sit in front of your computer screen for several hours a day, the decision is more complicated, ultimately boiling down to how much is your time worth. For a hobbyist like myself, it’s my leisure hours that are used, (mostly), and any profits are still a bonus even if the bonus is less than it was. For full-timers, or at least full-timers with employable skills, it’s more complicated, and my views on this subject have been aired on several occasions in the past.

Peter Webb wrote a good post on the value of time, triggered by Andy Murray’s Fourth Round match against Donald Young which finally ended on Thursday after being scheduled to start two days earlier.

Almost all of my betting is done on short-term events – a 90 minute football game, a 48 minute (or 40 minute) basketball game or an hour long NFL or NHL game for example. For the most part, the long-term markets don’t suit me. I get restless. I can focus on every play in a ‘short’ event, but asking me to watch all five days of a Test Match or all four or five days of a golf tournament, and I can’t do it. Even five sets of tennis is too much, not helped by the fact that I don’t enjoy tennis as a spectator sport.

The first of the weekend’s seven XX Draw selections was a loser tonight with Augsburg going down 1-4 to Bayer Leverkusen, dropping the 2011 strike rate to 7 from 15 and the ROI for the fledgling 2011-12 season to just 66.3%. Whether the decision to include Augsburg, or indeed any newly promoted teams, in this system so early in the season is a wise one remains to be seen (one winner in Swansea at 3.4, two losers in Dijon and Augsburg to date).

Finally, a great comment / question from Peter Nordsted which I will address tomorrow.

“The best way to appreciate your job is to imagine yourself without one”.

So Many Questions

P asks:

Any news on the trial NFL trading room that is planned with Mark Iverson?

Yes, the good news is that we are on for this Sunday's Steelers v Ravens game. Details are in Mark's post here.

Are you feeling generous enough to share your weekend XX selections in advance?

Send me an e-mail address, and I might consider it. As I mentioned earlier in the week, I am probably going to stop giving these away for free. 

Unfortunately, you likely won't have time to send me your e-mail before the first of the seven XX selections this weekend kick off in Germany tonight (hint)!

Finally, I wonder if you might consider publishing your own personal top 5 or top 10 best books about sports betting/trading/investing.

No problem here - I can just refer you to this post from March this year. I can't think of any new ones I have read since then, so it's still a complete list.

Coming Up This Weekend

The football results from mid-August are finally, after several hours of work, entered into the spreadsheets, and it’s fair to say that I didn’t miss too much by going away. The final weekend of August would have seen three selections for the XX System, with no winners, (although two came close going down in the 88' and to a 92' penalty), while the Value Bets across the four leagues currently in play also had disappointing results. It’s actually quite painful updating an entry as wrong as “Lay Manchester United v Arsenal” but without a crystal ball, decisions are made based on the numbers at the time (although in Arsenal’s case, a steadily declining team rating might well have triggered a red flag, at least until such time as their new rating stabilises). But in three leagues, we at least have some form beginning to tell, so fingers crossed for this weekend.

Early days still, but highlights from the ratings as they now stand include Manchester City’s climb into second place, while Arsenal hold on to sixth place but now are now closer to Swansea than they are to fourth placed Liverpool! At the bottom, Blackburn Rovers are above only Swansea City whose rating is still somewhat up in the air as a promoted team. Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion are the next worst rated non-promoted teams. Value bets this weekend:

In Germany, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are well clear of the chasing pack, and the early relegation candidates are Augsburg, Koln and Hamburg. Weekend value selections are:

In France, Lille lead Olympique Lyonnais and Olympique Marseille, with Sochaux and rapidly improving Paris St Germain not far behind. Value bets for this weekend are:

In Spain, Real Madrid and Barcelona not surprisingly dominate with just one game gone, and the value selections for this weekend (punter beware due to lack of form) are:

Sharp minds may be wondering where Real Madrid and Barcelona are, and the answer is that they are excluded because my prices are significantly out of line with the market as tends to happen when there is a big favourite. For what it is worth, my spreadsheet suggests the value is in laying the Big Two (well they ARE very short) and in backing Unders.

Italy's opening weekend, so the selections are raw and caution is again urged:

Finally, a little late, but I forgot to address a question from Griff who said...

Cassini, I'm after some advice, I've been working on my own ratings for probably 18 months on and off. I think I've found a edge. I've back tested my system over 3 years and it returned good profit each year so far. Over how many seasons would you say I should back test over?

In my opinion, I would say that three or four is probably enough. More than that, and you hit the law of diminishing returns, and the game changes over time so what might work today may well not have worked a few years ago, nor indeed may it continue to work. Good luck with the ratings!

Wrong Thinking

One of the keys to profitable betting is learning not to bet on what you THINK will happen, but betting on the outcome that offers value. I was reading a blog post at Sports Trading Life about last night's England v Wales match, and the author wrote:

Last night England started the match priced @ 1.16 and went as low as 1.07 when they took the lead. However, the 1-0 lead flattered England and I could see on Twitter that many people were now laying England at those short odds in case Wales actually managed to equalise. From a personal point of view, as soon as the match started I could see England were playing badly however I still expected they would sneak the win so having a Lay bet on England certainly didn’t make sense.

The point the author fails to grasp is that clearly, most of the world and his auntie THINK that England will win, but was their probability of winning 0.93 or more ? If not, then a Lay bet on England makes perfect sense. Simply basing your bets on what you THINK will happen rather than on the PROBABILITY of what will happen is not a winning strategy, and this applies to matches involving 'your' team even more, in that many people find it hard to bet against their heart.

Forum Classic

The Betfair Forum has a steady supply of posts showing ignorance of basic betting principles, but this one from yesterday was one of the best I've seen for a while. Titled "Hill's coupon with overround of 216%" thearchmeister writes, (with the poor grammar that typically accompanies dumb posts) of

muggy punters in hills shops getting 112% on coupons same selections round to 106% online but this is a whole new level of robbery

paired half time results coupon there are obviously 3 outcomes i)home or draw ii)home or away iii) draw or away

one selection on the coupon has all 3 outcomes at odds on lmao

people ignorant of overrounds really need to be warned

All very well, except that of the three outcomes, only one will lose, which means that the over-round will need to be in excess of 200% if Hill's intend on making a profit from this market, which seems a reasonable assumption. LMAO indeed. People ignorant of overrounds really need to be warned not to write about them on a public forum.

Re: Charging

There's a lot of nonsense written about the benefits of taking a break from sports investing. All it means to me is missed opportunities. As I haven't exactly missed my official job during my two weeks away, perhaps the "need to recharge my batteries" comments apply to those for whom betting is a full-time activity, but for someone like me, where it is a hobby which just so happens to make me some extra money, I must say I find it quite frustrating to not be involved with updating my spreadsheets with results, both sporting and financial, and looking ahead to what the ratings are predicting.

As you may have gathered, I have returned, a few pounds (lbs.) heavier and a few pounds (£s) lighter, and the first order of the day is to catch up the results from the last few weeks. Anyone who follows systems or tips will probably identify with my feelings as I update my spreadsheets. Any missed winners, despite validating the method by which they were selected, are on some level at least, annoying, while any missed losing bets are somehow met with a totally inappropriate smugness that you somehow dodged a bullet on that one. Having checked my e-mails, I can see that I dodged a few bullets after missing Football Elite's selections from the past two league weekends. I've not had time to read other blogs or forums yet, but it would not be a surprise if there were some rumblings of discontent out there. Have the ever maturing markets finally closed in on the inefficiency that Matt identified a few years ago, or is 2011 simply a blip in the run of continued success?

My own XX Draws have had a storming start to the season, at least up to August 21st, and I am seriously considering making these available on a subscription basis only. It's not something I'm really too comfortable with, but it was pointed out to me on my holiday that giving away profitable selections is, while generous, perhaps not too smart. The consensus was that Draw selections haven't been fashionable since the heyday of Littlewoods, Vernons and Zetters, one reason why the draw price tends to hold up excepting in late season Italian games, but perhaps there are enough investors out there who might be sophisticated enough to understand that draw betting can see some challenging losing sequences as well as the welcome hot streaks but that the Elo based ratings do, for the time being at least, consistently find value. I shall no doubt update the results for the weekend of August 20th, produce the selections for the weekend of August 27th, and go 0 for 7 and drop the idea completely.

Updated EPL / Bundesliga / Ligue 1

But first, as promised, updates to the EPL, Bundeliga and Ligue 1 value bets. Good luck - I shall be back in early September.

Apples And Oranges

It looks like I spoke too soon about August being the best ever. A £500+ Premium Charge deduction combined with consecutive losing days early in the week means that 2007's total is now odds-on to remain the best. Interestingly, only one August day (the 31st. at that) has seen a four figure change, and that was a careless loss in 2006 due to alcohol, (a lesson learned), so it tends to be a slow and steady month rather than one with exciting twists and turns.

Just for the heck of it, I looked at the years in which I had my best calendar months, and two still belong to as far back as 2006. Two in 2007, three in both 2008 and 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011. So much for improving as time goes by. The Premium Charge is one reason why some older totals remain of course, but also markets are constantly changing.

The French value selections have been updated - prices are still a little soft, so the Back prices should all be beatable.

I'll try and find time to freshen up the Bundesliga and EPL spreadsheets too before I leave you to your own devices.

Momentum

Peter Webb posted on a subject that resonates with me at this time of a season.

Early season football is the most interesting time of the year for me.

Some teams play well but lose, some play poorly but win and in the early season that gives a lift or shock to the team. Teams can easily build or lose momentum early in the season so its key to see how things are playing out. Short term momentum is critical and can lead to early season over performance but to keep it going over the whole season requires plenty of skill and a deep squad. In the premier league there really is a massive gulf between the top teams and the rest. Elsewhere there is a thinner line in skill levels between teams and this makes momentum and the psychological benefits it brings, critically important.

Keep your eye open for teams heading in either direction and that will give you some clues to short term value seeking in football matches.

Although I don't track the lower leagues any more, I do still keep an eye on them, and I don't know about anyone else, but you can't help but feel that certain teams seem to have it going for them. For me, in the Championship, right now it's Southampton and Brighton, both keeping their momentum going from last season, with West Ham looking good too - having reversed their momentum from last season! And a come from behind win with two 90' goals is sure to propel another southern team to further success, preferably long-term and short-term.

In League One it's Charlton Athletic, and in League Two, Crawley Town are looking strong. A little early for the Premier League opinions yet, but a mouth watering clash between the top two coming up this Sunday. As for Grimsby Town - there is a team headed in the wrong direction. Keep an eye on Dover in the Conference South too. How to incorporate this subjectivity into my spreadsheet is another thing altogether.

I was slightly premature with my prices for the Arsenal v Liverpool game this Saturday, given that they had yet to play Udinese, but Arsenal won by the (close to) expected margin, so the prices haven't changed by more than .01 - I didn't look at the Arsenal v Udinese market at all, but I had Arsenal at 2.13 if anyone cares to enlighten me as to what their approximate SP was.

Talkbet finds it highly amusing that after my gentle ribbing of the phoney Adam Heathcote and his post about staying hydrated, I should trip up over Evian. 

I can't say that too much about that error was amusing, but when my sense of humour returns in a few weeks, I shall have a wry smile at how 'Evian the irony it was.

Daddy's Back

Call me Brett Favre. I have reconsidered my retirement. I got bored, and besides, how can I let down the sports blogging community when this blog is, according to at least one expert, "the daddy of all sports related blogs and the one that's likely to be going long after most of us have gone to the wall?" The expert has a new blog, which is named "Green Pullover" (no relation) and looks a lot more promising than the average blog if you like your football bets. The name is more than just a nod to this one too.

After reading P's comment, I now feel even worse about my Evian TG error:

Your loyal readers shared your pain with Evian TG, as you said they were a lay in your blog posting. I'm sure you'll find a way to make this up to us all when you return from holiday though, perhaps by offering the NFL in-play service that Scott recommended...

How many people have expressed interest and what would your fee be just out of curiosity?

In future, I'll try to remember to put up the screenshot alongside any commentary, so that if / when I do make a mistake, at least there's a back-up. As for the NFL in-play service, there have been some developments on this idea, so watch this space or check out other well respected blogs for news.

And now, well ahead of schedule, here is an early look at this weekend's Bundesliga games. The Hannover '96 v Hertha Berlin game is subject to change as Hannover play Sevilla in the Europa League on Thursday, and the result may well affect my prices. It's actually rather surprising how firm the prices are for Sunday's game. I have Hannover at 2.65 to beat Sevilla incidentally.

Ignore the colours - they don't mean anything at this stage. It should be possible to better many of the Match Odds prices quoted.

As for Ligue 1, the prices are still not firm at all, but here are my prices Home - Draw - Away. Value bets will be put up later.

And last, but by no means least, here are the early value bets I have for this weekend's EPL games.

Again, a lot of these prices should be beatable, at least on the Back side, and the lay of Manchester United may well become a No Bet as Lay prices may move against us. I'll look at the Under / Overs later. There should be more than enough there to keep you all busy. Finally, here are the XX Draw picks for this weekend:

Minding The GAAP

It is pointed out to me by George that the Totals Matched are recorded differently by Betfair and BETDAQ, so the amounts are not directly comparable.

Betfair records matched volume as 2 x stake while Betdaq records it as stake + liability (more meaningful, I think). The ratio will clearly depend on the matched odds, but for golf it's around 10, so the £12.7 million on Betfair is equivalent to around £130 million in Betdaq terms.

Whether or not it is true that liquidity is flowing from the former to the latter thus remains to be confirmed, and in future, I shall only write about things I understand.

So, after three and a half years, we reach the end of the road. Good luck, and goodbye.

Drying Up

I noticed last night while trading the PGA Tournament on Betfair and BETDAQ that the total matched towards the end of the final round was £12.7 million and £25.8 million respectively. The final totals after the play-off would have been higher, but the point is that BETDAQ's share of some markets has grown hugely over the past few weeks. On this subject msv writes:

Maybe this is not the right spot but I was wondering why Betfair should be bothered when some of their most successful traders leave the markets due to the new premium charge. Maybe I miss something but why should it be bad news for Betfair when the guys leave who get the most money out of the system?

Basically, an exchange succeeds where there is liquidity. Many so-called 'big-hitters' have been, or will be, driven away from Betfair by having to pay up to 60% of their profits in charges. That drop in liquidity is already being seen, with liquidity on many fringe markets dropping dramatically, and many comments on the forum about it. This one is typical:

I remember when Betfair first created markets and no one played on them. It was like going back in time today after looking at the Rugby and MotoGP markets.

Absolutely no one playing in them.

Well done Betfair - you have created a ghost town.

MotoGP is not my thing, but you get the idea. There's still good liquidity on the Match Odds football markets, but it is clear that there is less than before, and that other exchanges such as BETDAQ are benefiting. Betfair are playing a dangerous game. If the liquidity drops to the tipping point, then the site really will become a ghost down, and very quickly.

msv again:

Good luck with the £3.85! This has to be a awesome month, if you get your best August ever with just two weeks gone.

Unfortunately, August is my second worse month behind only April, and the fact that it may become my best August ever really isn't saying too much! August is never awesome. For anyone who didn't read the update to my last post, it doesn't help when you identify value and then do the exact opposite. My spreadsheet clearly had Evian TG as value (my price was 1.87, and 2.2 was available) yet I somehow read Back as Lay and throw away 1.2 points. Very annoying. Other than that little error, it was another pretty good day yesterday. Stoke v Chelsea didn't go Over, nor did Manchester United fail to win but other picks were good including the XX Draw which went 2 for 2 on the day and 4 of 6 on the season. And one of those only lost to a 90' goal!

Despite the Evian TG debacle, I did manage to make the required £3.85, and am now looking good for a strong finish before my summer break.

Early Bird Prices

I have been well and truly reprimanded on the lateness and incompleteness of my football picks. What I have been doing is typically enter the data from the weekend's matches into the spreadsheet on the Tuesday and Wednesday, and then start looking at available prices on Friday, as earlier in the week they tend to be a little gappy, especially the Over / Under markets. This week I'll put the prices I calculate out there sooner, and leave it to the discretion of readers to determine whether or not prices are value as they settle down. I haven't been too serious about this yet because a) it's early in the season and b) I'm off for a couple of weekends shortly, but if there is interest, I will endeavour to have the selections earlier in the week than has been the case previously when the betting season starts after the International break.

P commented:

Also Cassini, would you kindly explain why you would recommend laying Marseille as well as backing the draw in that same match for the XX selections?

Do you feel it is better to dutch the two outcomes that show value or to choose which of the two shows the most value?

A fair question, and the answer is that the XX Draws are based purely on my ratings whereas the Match Odds and Over / Under value picks use the ratings along with a number of other factors to produce my own prices which are then compared to those available. This does result in occasions where a draw is predicted in one system, but the other system finds value elsewhere. As in today's example, the two aren't exclusive, and I have both backed the Draw, and layed Marseille (unfortunately!**) The XX Draw picks have served me well over the past two season, even though they are less sophisticated than the value picks, which are still in their formative stage. Sometimes you can over-think these things it seems.

** Update: Forget the 'unfortunately' - at the time of writing, Marseille had a 2-0 lead, but Auxerre did the business and tied it up at 2-2 giving both systems a winner.

Highs And Lows

I was going to open the post with something along the lines of "another mixed bag of results yesterday", but that sounds very negative. I think I expect too much. When you are dealing with probabilities and value, any day when you finish in the plus column is a good day. Some days will be better than others, but to expect close to 100% every time, while a nice goal, is somewhat unrealistic. Saturday's results were good. 23 selections, 13 winners, +8.37 points. Of course, there were some howlers in there. QPR's thrashing by Bolton for one, but that just serves me right for trying to impose a promoted team's previous form onto the spreadsheet. Football Elite had this one too, which makes me feel a lot better. If I'm going to be wrong, I like to be wrong in company. Overs in the Fulham v Aston Villa and Newcastle United v Arsenal games came up rather short with both finishing 0-0, but then there's the highlights. Mainz '05 picked at 3.1 (shortened significantly later as you will read later) and a lay of Olympique Lyon at 1.3 being the cream of the crop.

Peter Nordsted is back with his Drawmaster picks, and I'm pleased to see he is not necessarily selecting three every week. As I've written before, some weeks there are no selections, other weeks there are several. It makes no sense to me to handicap yourself by forcing picks or leaving picks on the table. Interestingly, Peter's two selections this weekend are also in my XX Draw list, and he started the season with a winner in the Newcastle United v Arsenal game.

Today, I have value in the Overs (2.12) at Stoke City (v Chelsea), lays of Evian Thonon Gaillard at 2.2** (what a name!) and Olympique Marseille (2.17) in Ligue 1, where the Over (2.37) Auxerre v Marseille, and Under (1.92) Lille v Montpellier are also value while in the Bundesliga, lay Kaiserslautern at 1.93. Stoke City v Chelsea and Auxerre v Marseille also feature on the XX Draw list.

Unless anyone vociferously complains, I'm discontinuing following the Free Under Over Soccer Picks - I don't see anything like value here after 115 selections, (probably why they are Free) but mainly the web site very annoyingly disappears to another site after a few seconds and whatever they are selling, I'm not interested in it. Deal or No Deal? I'll pass, thank you.

I now need £3.85 before Friday for this to be my best August ever. I am cautiously optimistic. Come Friday, and I shall be away for 17 days, so just five more trading days to do it.

msv left a nice comment, which was

Hi Cassini,

I am following your blog very closely and have to thank you for all the advice which has helped me a lot to improve my trading, so at least I do not have to deposit funds any more :-) Especially the discussion on the topic "to green or not to green" was very helpful.

I am from Germany and a big fan of the Bundesliga (but unfortunately have no edge there), so I checked the prices you had in this post and recognized you were right in a older post where you wrote: "On a final note, I am seeing my value picks in midweek frequently shorten before kick-off. Something I need to look at more closely in the coming weeks"

So the prices are now (approx 80 min. before kick-off):

Back Mainz 2.72 (instead of 3.1)
Lay Hamburg 2.06 (1.98)
Lay Dortmund 1.84 (1.8)
Back Nuremberg 2.16 (2.36)
just Lay Schalke improved 1.64 (1.67)

Maybe next time you could post the Bundesliga prices little bit earlier :-)

You get those prices out of a self made excel-sheet, right?

Thanks for all the great posts, I have learned and laughed a lot.

with an update later saying:

Just before kick-off the prices have even dropped to

Back Mainz 2.6
Back Nuremberg 1.97

Yes, the spreadsheet is self-made and generates the prices I use. I shall make every effort to improve the service and have my Bundesliga prices up earlier in the week. Regarding the "I have laughed a lot" comment, I trust that isn't at my selections or my picture? I'm very sensitive.

** Update: I'm an idiot. I said to lay Evian at 2.2, but the bet here was a back. I layed it myself! Must do better.

Lay The Saints

The Ligue One games today have all the home teams slightly too short, excepting Valenciennes who are almost value at 2.04 to beat Brest, but I'm looking for 10% value and 2.08. The best value lays are St Etienne v Nancy and Rennes v Paris St Germain. St Etienne are priced at 2.1 but I have them at 2.96. Rennes are 2.94 while I have them at 3.42. Only two of the seven Under / Over markets are out of line with my prices, and they are Under at 1.76 Lorient v Bordeaux and Over at 2.4 St Etienne v Nancy.

In the Bundesliga, Freiburg v Mainz is the one XX Draw, and the value bets are as shown in the screenshot. I'd forgotten how much time this takes every week! Most of the German games are showing value on the under tomorrow, as they did last week. 

One week was just an oddity, but two weeks in a row seemed a little strange, so I dug deeper and discovered an error in the spreadsheet, which has now been corrected. This bug resulted in the probability of a goal being slightly too low, so it'll be a few games before I am back to using these. 

The programmer has been relieved of his duties. (He did nothing but complain about how much time it took him anyway). Hamburg and Schalke '04 are the two Bundeslayga picks for today, with Kaiserslautern and Bayer Leverkusen tomorrow and Monday respectively.

Two more XX Draws in the EPL, the games of Newcastle United v Arsenal and Stoke City v Chelsea, and now that the prices are settled on the games at QPR and Wigan, both of these are value Over bets at 2.28 and 2.0 respectively. Just for fun remember.

American Football has started, and it's usually profitable to lay the favourite in the pre-season exhibition games. The teams on display seldom bear any resemblance to the teams that will be playing in the regular season, of if there is any resemblance, it is very brief with starting players being pulled out early. To me, this makes all the games something of a lottery, although the results haven't been hugely impressive from the first few games. Of ten matches, favourites have won 6 of 9, but the winning lays have been at 1.76, 1.62 and 1.82 so the damage isn't too bad. Incidentally, the response to Scott's idea of covering an American Football game in-running received an underwhelming response, and I hadn't even had a chance to mention the enrolment fee!