Sunday, 8 March 2009

Home System Week 2 Summary

Of the 14 selections, 6 were winners, 3 were losers, and 5 were draws. As last, that’s a lot of draws, with most of them coming at the less well visited portion of the fixture list – the Scottish League and Conference Regional Leagues.

The full results were: Crewe (W 2.24), Oldham (L 2.06), Barnet (W 1.93), Bournemouth (D 1.94), Bradford (W 1.84), Darlington (L 1.9), Mansfield (W 1.34), Partick Thistle (L 1.73), St Johnstone (D 1.81) and Peterhead (D 1.75).

Nothing spectacular. The research continues. Meanwhile, in the Under / Over 2.5 goals market...

I fancied the Everton v Middlesbrough game to be a low scoring affair, and backed the Under 2.5 goals pre-game. I laid off 2/3rds of the bet after ten minutes and let the rest ride. I was going to trade-out at half-time, but Middlesborough messed that plan up by scoring in the 44th minute.

I pondered trading out at half-time for a small profit, but after my mind had started counting on a bigger win, I thought I'd be brave and again let it run, hoping the 'Boro would keep it tight. They didn't. Two goals by 50 minutes and I was in a hole. Mercifully, Everton put me out of my misery 6 minutes later (if I'm going to lose, I'd rather the loss be quick. Games where the agony drags on forever are just excruciating!).

Looking back, the mistake I made was in not trading out at the half. Certainly the profit was way down on what it could have been with a 0-0 scoreline at half-time, but the fact was that the score was now 1-0 and that a profit is a profit, however small. A case of a bad decision driven by greed.


Rob The Builder said...

Your Everton scenario is an accurate description of 80% of the major cock-ups I've made in the last three years. Not accepting a loss, biggest error in gambling.

Anonymous said...

I think Rob meant to say 'biggest error in trading'.


Cassini said...

The stupid thing was that at half-time I could have traded out for a profit, albeit a small one, but after my mind had started thinking in terms of the 0-0 at half-time and the much bigger profit, I was greedy and wanted to hold out. Live and learn!