Thursday, 19 March 2009

Kettering Town v Oxford United

Kettering Town tonight play their sixth consecutive home game this month, versus Oxford United.

I have the two teams rated very close, Kettering at 248 and Oxford at 252. Recent form favours Oxford at +25 with Kettering at -10.

Oxford are favourites at 2.5, Kettering are at 3.25 with the draw at 3.3. Where is the value here? I am going with a lay of Kettering.

Reasons: Their home form has been poor this month. They beat Lewes on Tuesday night, but then just about everyone beats Lewes at the moment.

Oxford have not played since Saturday.

Both teams have played both Grays and Eastbourne this month, providing an opportunity to directly compare the results. At Home versus Grays, Kettering drew 0-0, Oxford won 4-1.

Against Eastbourne Borough, Kettering lost at home 0-1. Oxford won away 3-0.

However, football being football, watch for Kettering Town to win 2-0!


Anonymous said...

Nice winner there Mr. Cassini.


Cassini said...

Yeah - about time! If only football was always that easy. I was thinking about laying off after the first goal, but I am such a slow thinker that the score was 0-2 before I'd decided so I just let it run! "He who hesitates wins more"

Anonymous said...

Well I had a small lay of Aab against Man City last night and after 20 minutes or so of slight pressure on the Man City goal I started to think about backing back Aab at around 8ish, of course by the time I'd thought about it they had taken the lead perhaps it should be: "He who hesitates has increased variance".


Anonymous said...

well done cassini on the lay. Anonymous above AaB didn't score until the 85th minute so i think you'd decided beforehand to let the bet run. Good luck to all

Anonymous said...

Dear Anonymous, actually if you were watching the match for around 20 minutes near the end of the second half AaB had a dominance of possession but weren't really threatening apart from 3 penalty claims (1 unjustfully turned down). Then Man City started to have a little more possession which ended when Robinho smacked the crossbar. AaB started to press again at which point I started to contemplate whether I should be getting out of the bet - however at the time I was concentrating more on Andy Murray who had just been sent a gift from the Hawkeye gods and by the time I had chance to get back to the football Luton Shelton had scored what was probably the worst of all AaB's chances that half.

As I said it was only a small lay as I was more interested in the tennis, and the loss wont hurt in the long run, was just an example of how thinking about a decision but not acting on it right away can be just as costly as beneficial over time. But peace and goodwill to all.

For reference the dubious Hawkeye challenge was akin to Stuart Atwell's decision to award a goal to Reading when the ball went out for a goalkick and is definately worth checking out.