Swop Confidentialities

A week ago, I posted an article from the Wall Street Journal on baseball betting. Baseball is a game where the top teams rarely win more than 60% of their games, and the worst teams seldom lose more than 40%, which means that on any day, any team can beat any other.

In late June, early July, I started a system laying the home team where they were a 'big' team; teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and I also added in the Dodgers, Angels, White Sox and Mets. After modest losses, I took some time off later that month, and never bothered resuming the system upon my return. Looking at the table in the Wall Street Journal, it was hardly surprising that it wasn't profitable, as 3 of my seven chosen teams performed above expectation, including the two Los Angeles teams in first and third place.

The article piqued my interest again, and I have found some interesting facts which are available to subscribers of my new Swop Confidentialities advice service, Yes, for just £65 a month, I am proud to announce the launch of this new venture. I did like the rather catchy Somewhat Helpful Information Tipping name, but my Mum just called to point out that the acronym is a bit rude - I had no idea! So, if you are reading beyond this point, please send me £65 via PayPal immediately.

Private Members Only Beyond This Point - I mean it.

Ok, first of all, thank you all for your £65. I am off to Monza next weekend to drive around the track at your expense.

Back to the advice you have paid for. This was written for baseball, but I believe some of the thoughts apply just as well to other sports.

In sports such as baseball, historical data shows that picking underdogs is the best way to "keep the wind" at your sports investing back. This may result in winning only 40%-45% of your selections, but the long odds means you'll have a positive return.

Why does this work? Psychologically, contrarian sports investing makes a lot of sense. Most casual bettors like to watch a game and say that they "picked the winner". This is why many fan favorites or championship-calibre teams are over-valued and do poorly "against the spread". Most sports fans like to bet on heavily-favored teams like the Yankees or Red Sox and happily watch their team win 55% or 60% of the time. However, they forget that they might (often) be betting at odds-on. Many of these fans shrug their shoulders if they see themselves losing money because they know that their team seems to be winning around 60% of the time (even as their bankrolls dwindle).
So there may have been some method in my madness after all. They don't come any bigger than the Yankees so for fun (i.e. small stakes) I am going to lay them from now until the end of the regular season - another 36 games.

Bet 1 is a lay at 1.45.

Swop Confidentialities Membership Count: 0

Update: Yankees lost! This is easy. For all of you paid up members (I've not checked my PayPal account yet, but I'm sure there are 122 or so by now) you have paid for your membership already! The price was 1.46 too. Couldn't get matched at 1.45