Wednesday, 28 July 2010

One Team In London

I believe that Betfair's "Head to Head Leagues" markets are new, at any rate I haven't noticed them before, and in fact I first read about them at although I can't see the original article any more. Perhaps they pulled it, because it was certainly very misleading. Bearing in mind the article is written for Betfair's own site, the article read:

The number of Premier League markets available to bet on is growing every day on Betfair, with further opportunities presented with three Head to Head Leagues, whereby you back a team to pick up the most points in matches with their regional rivals.

Confused? Well, take the market on top London club as an example. Your options are Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Fulham and West Ham, and all games between these teams count towards the standings, so that by the end of the campaign each side will have played eight times, and the one with the most points gained in derby clashes is the winner.

Chelsea are clear favourites at 1.3, with Arsenal next in line at 2.6, but it's Tottenham at 3.1 that look the most attractive option. Harry Redknapp's men were London's finest in 2008-09 - even though their overall league position didn't reflect this - and were impressive runners-up last year.

In their favour is the fact that West Ham gift them six points every season, with the Irons yet to win in ten meetings with former boss Redknapp. Roy Hodgson tripped them on several occasions as Fulham manager, so his departure could boost their total, while they beat Arsenal and Chelsea at home in 2009-10.

One other factor that makes Spurs a great punt is that their 16-point derby haul would ordinarily have been enough to top the table. They were unfortunate that Chelsea managed an incredible 19, a tally they'll almost certainly struggle to replicate.

If you fancy backing an outsider, Fulham are 14.0 and West Ham 16.0, however you should probably steer clear of the Cottagers until Hodgson's successor is named, while the east Londoners collected a pitiful three points with no wins last time out.
What the author doesn't make clear is that the market hasn't even formed yet (see the screenshot) - £40 traded (i.e. £20 on Chelsea at 1.5, is the only action at the time of writing). The 3.1 on Tottenham is not a 'great punt' - it actually looks shocking value, or rather looked shocking value since 3.8 is now available, with more to come I'm sure. Anyone who suggests that maybe the article's author was trying to lay that 3.1 himself should be ashamed of themselves.

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