Sunday, 4 July 2010

Semi-Finals By The Numbers

After the quarter-final matches, the World Football Elo ratings now have a dead-heat for first place between the Netherlands and Spain. Germany are ranked fourth, and Uruguay are sixth.

World Cup Semi-Finals since 1986 have seen the overall draw hit 33% of the time, but when the 'strong favourite' matches are excluded, this number increases. When recent (1996 on) Euro tournaments are factored in, the overall percentage of draws rises to 45%. The draw looks good value at 3.45 for the Germany - Spain Euro 2008 re-match.

Under 2.5 goals in semi-finals matches in the World Cup hits at 83%, and including Euros still comes in at 75%.

The Netherlands are strong favourites against Uruguay, and every odds-on favourite in the knock-out phase has won in 90 minutes, all but one incidentally were Over 2.5. A little misleading perhaps, given that Brazil were close to odds-on at 2.0, and Spain left it late, but they all count.

Nevertheless, Netherlands at 1.68 is the pick versus Uruguay, with Under 2.5 goals in both matches (1.65 NET-URU, 1.76 GER - SPA).

60% of matches are 0-0 at half-time, (20% finish that way, and 30% go to Penalties.

The Spain - Netherlands final is available at 2.66, which is value based on the To Qualify markets, and finally, the winning confederation market saw CONMEBOL traded as low as 1.52, but their hopes now rest with Uruguay and are out to 14.5. Europe clear favourites to win their first World Cup outside the continent.

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