Friday, 19 November 2010

Motley Crewe


After a slow week for football, the weekend gets off to about as big a start as it could - no offence to Burton and Bury but Arsenal v Tottenham takes some beating. I'll let the always fascinating My Football Facts web site set the stage:

Spurs v Arsenal is now one of the great rivalries in World Football but the fixture had very different beginnings back in November 1887 when the clubs first met in a friendly played on Tottenham Marshes. Arsenal, then called Royal Arsenal, had been formed just a year earlier as Dial Square and were essentially the works team for the munitions factory situated in Woolwich, Kent, while Spurs who had been formed some five years earlier in 1882 still had many of the youngsters who founded the club playing for them. Spurs won that first encounter 2-1, although the game was cut 15 minutes short due to poor light conditions because of Arsenal turning-up late.
I doubt that anyone will be turning up late tomorrow, even if kick-off is a little early, so we should see a full 90 minutes plus of action. Conventional wisdom is that derby games are closely fought, and five of the last ten league matches between these two have ended even. Arsenal at 1.67 certainly seem a little short, so a lay with a view to trading out is my plan here.

In League Two, the value pick would appear to be Crewe Alexandra, available at 2.42 to beat Rotherham United. (Be honest, you weren't expecting that pick, were you?) I don't often look at the lower leagues, but if this turns out as good as it looks, I might well do more in the future.

In the top leagues, the 'strong' draw prospects appear to be Borussia Moenchengladbach v Mainz '05, Fulham v Manchester City, Nancy v Valenciennes, St Pauli v Wolfsburg, St Etienne v Auxerre, Hannover '96 v Hamburg, Lens v Olympique Lyonnais and Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid.

The home value picks are: Nuremburg (2.04) v Kaiserslautern, Sunderland (2.8) v Everton, Deportivo la Coruna (2.3) v Malaga, Eintracht Frankfurt (2.32) v Hoffenheim, Stuttgart (1.56) v Koln, Bolton Wanderers (2.18) v Newcastle United.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

For a serious gambler, is it not dangerous practise to not often look at lower leagues and then suddenly pluck a pick from them?

Scott Ferguson said...

odd pick. I'm a Crewe fan - we've just broken a four-game losing streak by beating Gillingham who are terrible. Our 11 match unbeaten streak included seven draws. Rotherham are five pts above us on the table and have the best goalscorer in the league, Adam Le Fondre. Crewe clean sheets are about as common as England World Cup wins and the Millers have conceded just 6 goals on their travels this year.

Can't see any value in it at all myself but hope you're right!

mouldhouse said...

Backed rotherham here myself although not strong enough to post on my blog. Also got arsenal in a fair bit shorter so think that 1.67 is good value, I expected nearer 1.5x.

With you on nurnberg and depor though. Home value picks look solid although Bolton at 2.18 suggests they are a better outfit than newcastle, and I can't buy into that at this moment, although the team news may well favour the pick (although I think you don't take it into account anyway? so it hasn't influenced you).

Sunderland is a tough one too - the price to my naked eye looked good, but they are very jekyll and hyde - and its classic after such a massive result to underperform next game.

Good luck!

James Atkin said...

Hey man,

I was hoping you might be willing to swap blog links with me. I'm in the same kinda genre, although admittedly a little off topic. I've already added you to mine @ http://atkinator.net

Don't bet on Lincoln City anytime soon :)

Cheers,
James

Anonymous said...

It doesn't seem an odd pick to me when you think about how, I believe, Cassini's ratings work.

Crewe have the second best goal difference in the League.

That's it basically.

NB Ratings systems relying purely on results and goal difference in each game can generally be discarded and ignored. Although they are interesting in so much as it's easy to work out what the amateur "would be professionals" are likely to bet. There's a bit more to it than that though. Just a bit.

betoftheweek said...

Cassini,

First time commentor. Great blog.

I am the owner of a similar blog to yours www.betoftheweek.net. Check it out if you ever have the time and see what you think of my stuff.

I was interested to see that you have gone for Crewe in this game and thought I would chip into the debate.

Crewe are one of my favourite teams and I do think they are undervalued by the market, but maybe not as much as they were a couple of months back. I have had a few good wins this season on them, however, I don't think I could justify backing them tomorrow against Rotherham at 2.3.

The Millers are a solid team with strong playoff potential. They are also a well balanced outfit, equally capable both offensively and defensively.

An interesting stat for you all I pulled out doing my research this week though.

Crewe's goal scoring prowess is pretty much unrivaled across UK football at the moment.

Dario Gradi's men are the ONLY side to have only failed to score 1 time so far this season out of the 92 sides.

Only 13 sides have managed to score in all but 2 of their games.

As you would expect many of the league leaders are amongst that group (Chesterfield, Charlton, Man United, Arsenal, Brighton and Bournemouth).

Potential over performers Bolton, Leeds and the MK Dons are also in there.

The remaining sides are Coventry, Blackburn, Swindon and Norwich.

These are four teams to keep an eye on which could represent some value in the markets for me in the coming weeks. Particularly Blackburn and Swindon.

Anyway, my selections for the weekend are Norwich (2.25), Colchester (1.95) and Cambridge (1.83).

Full justification on my site for those interested.

Anyway, good luck tomorrow everyone. I hope the gambling gods are with you.

Cassini, hope you like my stuff and I will check back in again soon.

Cheers

Blez