Sunday, 7 November 2010


Overall, Saturday was a good day, with Football Elite the star of the day. The three Recommended Bets were all winners to nil, Sunderland (2.12), Real Sociedad (2.2) and Espanyol (1.94).

The Short-List had Bolton at 3.15, and Nuremberg at 2.06 with draws at Birmingham and Fulham.

Only one strong draw at 3.15 from four selections, (Sochaux v Auxerre) so a small loss on those today, and the strike rate drops to 38.1%. For those who are new to this blog, when I talk about 'strong' and 'weak' draws, strong draws are those matches where the ratings predict a result of 0.1 of a goal or less, while weaker draws are matches that fall in the 0.2 to 0.5 range. Adam at 2010 And Beyond (blog added to blog roll) was asking what the sample size is for the strong draws. The 38.1% is just for this season, as last season strong and weak draws were lumped together (hitting at a combined 38.67% for 2009-10 in the EPL).

My value home winners had two losses at Birmingham City and Rennes, but four winners at Blackburn Rovers (1.85), Bologna (2.0), Real Sociedad (2.2) and Nuremberg (2.06). More and more, I find myself finding the value above, or at least close to, evens these days.

The 'big wins' predicted by the ratings for Manchester United and Internazionale never came close, with the former scraping home with a very late winner and the latter failing to even win. It's not a new idea to oppose teams involved in European action the preceding week, but it may be a legitimate one. Injuries didn't help. I think I used up all my goals with Celtic, who were expected to win by 3 and won by 9! Incidentally, on checking the spreadsheet, it turned out that the Man U margin should have been 3 and not 4 - I must have been smoking something good when I ran the numbers for that game!

With regard to why the AH markets are thin, Adam commented that it's

because 5% commission doesn't work with Asian Handicaps. The BETDAQ liquidity is mostly false and put up by a bot anyway. The liquid AH markets are at Pinnacle, SBOBET and 188bet.
There was also a question from 'John' on trading the NBA, but no e-mail address for me to reply to. Trading the NBA picked up again last night, and we're now back to positive territory for the season with every win restoring that too-easily dented confidence. It's a fragile thing, confidence.


mouldhouse said...

Thanks for the blogroll add. I agree confidence is so fragile - it must be tough if your major activity is trading. I suppose it shares the same aspects as outright position-taking in a way - inasmuch as you can often finish a "good day's work" with a loss but you know that your bets/trades/entry and exit points were solid, and if you continue to do that day in, day out, you won't have any problems.

Easy to say and not so easy to put into practice sometimes!

I did get a decent bet matched on the AH market at the weekend on betfair at evens, so after 2% that was 1.98 when the other asian books were 1.96 only. A very thin advantage even at 2%, and that was quite a bit of hard work, managing bets, checking them, and of course there could have been a price move at any time. Also, it was only a half winner so i gained the princely sum of one whole tick! Easy to see why people don't really bother compared to the daq even and certainly compared to pinny et al.

rubbish said...

Followed you in again yesterday and won a small Accie and had 1-1 in the Sochaux game. Cheers for putting your selections up. All the best.

Firoz Khan said...

Welcome to online gambling sites the best online gaming revenue. Pau and promotions for clients like you. We are ready to serve. To serve you. You enjoy. Online Gambling, Casino online with unlimited fun Registered in SBO-TH SBO through agents. Not through an agent.
Please Click here for more Information: BEST SBO SBOBET AT THAI SBOBET SBOBET , SBO
Best Casino Service At Thai :-For gambling lovers online gambling is absolute fun where they can have their freedom without risking every inch of their pockets