Tuesday, 9 November 2010

Managing Expectations

Joep asked:

How did Barca regain the lead in your ELO ratings last weekend when Real beat a much stronger team, albeit at home? Real match not incorporated in the ratings yet due to the late KO time?
Firstly, my ratings do not have Atletico Madrid as a "much stronger team" than Getafe. They are stronger, but not hugely, and the teams would be rated even closer were it not for Getafe's disaster in the Europa League last week. Secondly, a win does not mean that a team will gain points. What matters is meeting expectations. At the start of the weekend, Real Madrid had a narrow lead over Barcelona in the ratings, and were expected to win by 2.33 at home to Atletico Madrid. Barcelona were away to Getafe, and expected to win by 1.36. The bottom line is that Barcelona exceeded expectations while Real Madrid fell short. The subsequent adjustments mean that for the moment at least, Barcelona reign in Spain.

Some midweek league action in England and Italy this week, and no surpise that the Manchester derby is a strong draw. In Italy the top draw pick is Parma v Sampdoria on Thursday, with the games at Brescia (v Juventus) and Cesena (v Lazio) weaker draw predictions. A weaker draw in England is the West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion game. Interestingly, every expected draw has the away side slightly favoured.

Home value picks are Roma (1.83) v Fiorentina, Chievo Verona (2.1) v Bari, Stoke City (2.14) v Birmingham City and Newcastle United (2.0) v Blackburn Rovers.

For an away value pick, Liverpool (1.84) at Wigan Athletic look value.


mouldhouse said...

Will certainly be against you on wigan - a vast overreaction to one stuttering performance and a couple of impressive ones. Woy relishes being the underdog, but very rarely justifies big favouritism. I don't think Pool are anywhere near they were last season as yet, confidence has been slightly restored, yes, but I can't have them odds on for this game.

I love backing wigan when they are a generous price, but they are the ultimate team to avoid when favourites.

Good luck!

Joep said...

Thank you for the explaination. Why do you use your own handicaps in your elo system while judging by this blog you mostly use the 1X2 market to bet on. Wouldn't it make more sense to use the 1X2 results in your rating system as well? Oh, and my name is Joep, not JoeP :).