Wednesday, 10 November 2010

Turning A Prophet

An example of how no lead is safe in the NBA came in last night's game between the highly rated Miami Heat and the not-so-highly-rated, but perennially good, Utah Jazz. Miami led by 22 points and looked beaten, before the visiting Jazz began to chip away at that lead. In the last minute they hit at least three 3-pointers and the game ended up going to overtime. You can see from the screenshot just how much money was traded at low prices on the Heat, and some of that came after a fat finger thought the game was over in regulation and backed the Heat at 1.01. My opportunistic lay was thus devoured, and a nice green-all-over achieved.

Utah is also at the centre of the latest book I am reading. Written by Jon Krakauer, and if you haven't read "Into Thin Air, or Into The Wild", I highly recommend them both, the book is a true story called "Under The Banner Of Heaven - A Story of Violent Faith". As you may have guessed, it's about the Mormon religion, a religion even more peculiar than most of them, and there is a piece in there which touched on gambling and amused me, although when it comes to religion, I am admittedly, easily amused.

Referencing one of the central characters, the paragraph in question reads:

In one of Ron's revelations, God had, in fact, instructed him to send his brother Mark to Nevada to wager on a horse race to raise funds for the City of Refuge. With the Lord letting Mark know which mount to bet on, it seemed that they couldn't lose. But they did. Afterward, Onias couldn't resist telling the brothers, "I told you so," causing relations between Ron and the prophet to deteriorate even furter.
Apparently the omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent God isn't too good at picking winners. I wonder if anyone has mentioned Exchange Betting to him? The Premium Charge shouldn't be a problem for him.

Just the one football match yesterday which saw Stoke City (at 2.14) throw away a two goal lead, before winning their match versus Birmingham City with an 85' goal. Football Elite had these on the Short List as well - always a welcome boost to see that I'm on the same page.

I suggested yesterday that Liverpool were value at Wigan tonight, but Adam begs to differ:
Will certainly be against you on Wigan - a vast overreaction to one stuttering performance and a couple of impressive ones. Woy relishes being the underdog, but very rarely justifies big favouritism. I don't think Pool are anywhere near they were last season as yet, confidence has been slightly restored, yes, but I can't have them odds on for this game.

I love backing Wigan when they are a generous price, but they are the ultimate team to avoid when favourites.
I love backing anyone when they are a generous price, but I don't agree that Wigan, at 4.9, are a generous price at all. (Cue a Wigan 2-0 win!) My ratings don't often predict strong away winners, but when it does, they don't often lose - just 8.3% all season in fact, from an admittedly small sample, leading me to Lay Wigan at 4.9 yesterday. They have drifted since, possibly because I tipped up Liverpool yesterday. On current form, I have Liverpool rated second currently, with Wigan, perhaps surprisingly, rated fifth, so it makes for an interesting game. Appreciate the positively toned comment too.

Oh, and the suggestion that Wigan drifted because of this blog was a joke.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"Predict" is surely not an appropriate word for what your ratings do (should do).

When your ratings "predict" a draw, is that supposed to mean a draw is the most likely outcome? Because it's not. It's a pretty horrible turn of phrase for someone claiming to be shrewd.

Predictions have nothing to do with value betting, which is what you claim to do.