Saturday, 11 August 2012

Get Rich Slowly

Little Al joins the tipster league with two selections from the EPL. I suspect they are draw selections, but Little Al didn't say. The two matches are Arsenal v Sunderland and Wigan Athletic v Chelsea from England's opening weekend, so Little Al has a few days to confirm.

Soccer Dude's comment on my Elo ratings posts over at was appreciated - he wrote: 
Just read your Elo posts over at BettingExpert. Top job.
Thanks SD. The idea was not to say 'this is how it's done' but rather to illustrate one way in which Elo based ratings CAN be used, with the hope that it generates some ideas among readers on how they might approach them.

G wrote:
Quick question relating to the XX draws/over unders betting Cassini. I see the P/L for the season is 15.85 & 30.28 (a decent return by any standards).
Broken down into an average monthly return say over 10 months then it would look like -
XX Unders 3.28 / XX Draws 1.58
Is this the type of "expected" return for a straight betting system.
The reason I ask is I think most average punters think (or expect) easy returns of say 20/30 points per month from a system.
I used to think like that but soon realised these types of retuns tend to belong to the "Get rich Quick" scammers out there.
Personally an average return of 4.5 points per month between the systems is rather good.
That comment actually made me look at the numbers by month, even though I know better! The school of thought that betting strategy / approach / mindset should 'often' change later in a month from that applied a few days earlier has, I hope, been thoroughly debunked and accepted by most of us, but just for kicks, here are the numbers by month from 2011-12:

These returns are indeed to level stakes, and the ROIs on the draws (10.16%) and Under 2.5 (19.41%) are, if I say so myself, pretty good. In my opinion, huge ROIs, month by month are seen only in scam mailings and not in reality. Reality is that returns will fluctuate randomly, with no regard to the month (or the day of the month), but if, on average, the return is positive, then that's something to build on.

The off season can certainly play havoc with ratings. Obviously a change of manager and  playing style, or changes in the team have an impact, and where to insert promoted teams is a perennial problem, one that I have addressed in a soon to be published post over at Some teams ended last season on a high - think of Wigan Athletic (who ended the season rated eighth and in great form) or Montpellier, but both are likely to see their ratings steadily decline.

I think I wrote previously that I would highlight the bottom three teams in each league, excluding promoted teams, as they may make interesting bets in the relegation markets. From bottom down (e.g. Stoke City are worst rated in the EPL), the three teams in each major European League are:
 Lots to consider other than the ratings of course, but there are a couple of surprises in there.

Today really is the last chance to get every XX Draw selection, both Classic and Extended, for 2012-13. Check out the prospectus here for all the details, and whether you are a subscriber or not, good luck to you this season.


Baz said...

Agree with SocerDude interesting stuff at Betting Expert.Looking forward to more.

Rugby Trader said...

same here, my aim for this season is to start constructing my own odds model.
some great pointers in your Betting Expert articles.

just got to figure out how to use Excel to do it!