Monday, 27 August 2012

The Gain In Spain

Congratulations to Dave, aka Gundulf, over at Betfair Football Trading on reaching 100,000 hits. Not too many blogs continue for two years or more with a steady flow of posts. One thing Dave seems to have missed is the referral payment scheme run by Blogger which kicks in after two years. The leading referral site receives a modest payment via PayPal based on the number of referrals. To be honest, it's more a tradition than a rule, but some traditions I rather like, and I hope Dave is of the same opinion. CalcioCassini @ when you are ready Dave.

Thanks to Baz who wrote:

Great start for the XX Draws in what I think is an always tricky first few weeks.
Certainly the opening weeks, and indeed closing weeks, of a season can be treacherous with all the new teams to be absorbed into the ratings, as well as wholesale changes to team line-ups and managerial positions, but if you take things too carefully, you end up betting in November and early March, because there is some excuse for the rest of the season - heavy pitches in winter being the excuse for December through February. 

By their very nature, the XX Draws are not intended for big punts, since most of the bets will lose, but an objective selection method is always going to select matches involving teams such as Montpellier, who I highlighted earlier in August were a team whose ratings were too high, and would start to fall. 

Now positioned in the relegation zone, their inclusion as an XX Draw selection last week away to Lorient can be double-guessed, but it was only a 92' goal that took away the win there. 

The other team I highlighted as likely to see a ratings slump were Wigan Athletic, and they have featured twice - one game cost me 1.54 points, the second made me 1.59 points, so again, no regrets about including them.

My spreadsheet thinks that Atletico Madrid are superior to Athletic Bilbao by 1.3 goals tonight, and finds value on the Unders. Atletico on the AH -1 at anything over evens is value for me. 

The earlier game features a promoted side Real Valladolid hosting Levante, and I'll be leaving this one alone.


Lay Away said...

Hi Cassini

Neil here from Lay Away

My Blog has moved to a new home:

Would you be so kind as to update it on your Blog Roll

You will be receiving a few mention sin dispatches


Tony said...

3 lays for me this weekend:
Man Utd