Saturday, 11 August 2012

Handing Off To Rio

Some interesting movement in the price for the season's opening XX Draw selection today. After hovering in the 3.2 to 3.25 range all week, in the last hour before kick-off, the price drifted out to 3.55. Both Saint-Etienne and Lille shortened, while the Unders prices didn't move. It was almost as if someone was taking on the XX Draw selections! In the end, the layer got away with it, courtesy of a 90' goal. Not the start I was hoping for, but it happens. Six 'winners' last season were taken away in the 90', and 22 in the 81' or later, but these things even out over a season so I'll get over it. I know some subscribers lay the bet off as the time remaining runs out, and anybody backing the Half-Time 0-0 had a nice winner. In addition to the Match Odds and the Under 2.5 markets, I am this season including the Under 1.5, Under 3.5 and the Half-Time 0-0 markets. Five points a game, and an opening loss of 0.91. The Extended selections, were both Away wins also, Evian Thonon Gaillard lost to Bordeaux 2-3 and Troyes v Valenciennes finished 0-1 to an own goal. Griff shared my ETG and Troyes selections, and has Stade Rennais v Olympique Lyonnais in play tomorrow. I shall publish the fledgling Friendly Tipster Table at Gold All Over tomorrow.

A couple more nice comments on my Elo ratings articles at BettingExpert, which are appreciated - Baz said:
Agree with SocerDude interesting stuff at Betting Expert. Looking forward to more.
And Rugby Trader said...
same here, my aim for this season is to start constructing my own odds model.some great pointers in your Betting Expert articles. just got to figure out how to use Excel to do it!
There is plenty of help on Excel out there if you need it. I know I did, and I learned a lot. Learning how to use Tables and Lookups is probably the most important thing. It's a lot easier to enter a team code, e.g. LIV or RM and have the rating and form populate automatically than have to enter it all manually.

If I don't post again before the closing ceremony, enjoy it. My brother-in-law's tree won't be there, but he does have another creation to watch out for.
Del Boy: Don't worry, Rodney. This time next year, we'll be millionaires!
Rodney: This time last WEEK we were millionaires!

1 comment:

AL said...

yes draws. little AL