Tuesday, 21 August 2012

Opening Weekend

The first (almost) full weekend of the season is complete, and the updated Friendly Tipster Table is shown here. I think that in future, I will post both the table and the selections over at Green All Over, because I don’t want this blog to become cluttered up with them. Along with P&L numbers, tips don’t make for the most interesting of posts, so they will be consigned to the junior blog of the All Over family.

Including Ligue 1 last week, the XX Draws have had 5 Classic selections and 8 Extended, and the grand total of two draws, and an ROI of -50%.

On the surface, not a very promising start, but below the surface, things look a lot better. Eight of the thirteen finished Under 2.5 – ROI of 20%, and 12 have ended Under 3.5 with an ROI of 28%.

But the stars of the show, and I’m aware that it is early days, are the Half-Time 0-0 (76%) and the Under 1.5 (79%).

The irony is that backing these selections as draws currently shows a loss, but backing any of the other suggested markets, and they are well ahead. It'll even out I'm sure, but for now, that's how it is.

A breakdown of the ten individual categories can be found in the table above.    

The pre-match price movements on the opening Classic selection of the weekend (West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool) were interesting. The draw in mid-week was around the 3.65 mark, yet by kick-off, 3.8 was available, with a little traded as high as 3.9.

As might be expected, the Unders prices drifted too, with the U2.5 market moving from 1.83 to 1.95. A significant drift, and annoying for anyone getting involved early. It sometimes works the other way of course, (see Levante v Atletico Madrid) although as with 90th minute goals, one tends to notice and remember these things when they work against you rather than for you.

Speaking of 90th minute goals, we have now had three in just four Classic matches, although one was in our favour – at least it was for all of two minutes! Lorient v Montpellier was the match in question, with the visitors scoring first in the 37th, before two Lorient goals in the 90th minute spoiled the party.

And the Extended selections have also seen one 90’ goal (last night’s Real Vallecano v Granada game), and two other winners taken away in the 80’ or later, so the draws have been a tad unlucky perhaps.

We did get our first Classic winner of the season on the Match Odds market, with a perfect draw in the Ajaccio v Paris St Germain game. Tense moments late on, when the lights went out, but play resumed after a short delay and the last two minutes of stoppage time passed without any goals. Very tempting to lay off at 1.0x, but to do this in reaction to a couple of unlucky breaks from earlier selections is not the best strategy.   

The Extended selection of Levante v Atletico Madrid was another match showing a big price movement pre-game, with the Under 2.5 moving from 1.92 on Saturday to 1.74 four hours before kick-off on Sunday night. Did the draw price come in? Nope – the draw traded at 3.45, 3.5 and 3.55 with no discernible trend. If Unders shorten, then the draw should shorten too. There’s value somewhere, and after a couple of early goals, the match ended 1-1 for a winner on the Extended selections.

But enough about me and my selections. How did the others fare over the weekend, I hear you ask?

Little Al leads the non-XX category, finding the draw in the Arsenal v Sunderland game. Peter Nordsted’s Premier Betting got off to a great start with the selection of Fulham v Norwich City, and Tony’s blend of backs and lays found three winners from six, and an overall profit. Football Elite had Reading with the Draw No Bet, so no profit, but no loss either. Jon (Talkbet) had Everton to beat Manchester United, but three losers to go with it meant a small loss overall, while Neil and Drawmaster couldn’t come up with any draws. Draws were hard to find this weekend, as Griff knows only too well, extending his record to 0 from 9, although six of those were Under 2.5, and one was a 90’ draw-breaker, so this record is a little harsh I feel. 

1 comment:

Tony said...

Lays - barca, real madrid, bayern munich.
Draws - chelsea, spurs.