Friday, 10 August 2012

Quorum, Just

Not exactly an abundance of takers for the Friendly Tipster League, but Griff did confirm to me that he will be submitting his picks once again, and for opening weekend, his draw picks (full names) are:
Evian Thonon Gaillard v Girondins de Bordeaux
Stade Rennais v Olympique Lyonnais
EspƩrance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne v Valenciennes
Peter Nordsted confirmed the return of Drawmaster this season, and with the XX stable of runners plus Football Elite and Ian Erskine's 'Lay The Draw' selections, we have a quorum.

I hope some of you have had a chance to check out my articles on using Elo ratings in football published over at BettingExpert.com - I've mentioned a lot of the details at odd times in this blog, but it seemed like a good idea to collect them together and post them in one place. In part, the reason was that the ratings were a work in progress, starting with basic principles and then building on those, and of course stumbling by accident on the predictive component which led to the XX Draws.

Early season can be treacherous, but you wouldn't think so from last season's early results. Opening weekend in Ligue 1 saw one winner from two, and the first ten selections saw seven draws. That'll be hard to beat!

I had an excellent email from Tony, who wrote:
Been following and enjoying your blog since the start of the year and have signed up for the xxdraws and looking forward to the new season.

Would appreciate one point of clarification though re the Classic and Extended selections.

If I have understood it correctly, the Bundesliga will be covered by the Classic selections but not in the Extended because of the higher average goals per game.

With that in mind, what are your thoughts on using the Classic Bundesliga selections for the non-draw investments (U2.5, HT0-0, U3.5). Taking a quick look at 2011-12, the Bundesliga did pull down the Strike Rate and the ROI on the U2.5 but was still positive by 3.3 units.
I need to look at the numbers more, and will write on this before the German league kicks-off on August 23rd. The Bundesliga does seem out of step with the other leagues, as I have written about before, but Tony's question deserves some thorough analysis this weekend. Watch this space.

4 comments:

AL said...

can i join the tipster league?

first selections

arsenalvsunderland
wiganvchelsea

Little AL

SoccerDude said...

Just read your Elo posts over at BettingExpert. Top job.

BigAl said...

You're saying that home advantage when MU play Wigan averages 0.75 of a goal depending on who is at home?

And expected supremacy when they play at Wigan is 0?

G said...

Quick question relating to the XX draws/over unders betting Cassini.
I see the P/L for the season is 15.85 & 30.28 (a decent return by any standards).
Broken down into an average monthly return say over 10 months then it would look like -
XX Unders 3.28
XX Draws 1.58
Is this the type of "expected" return for a straight betting system.
The reason I ask is I think most average punters think(or expect)easy returns of say 20/30 points per month from a system.
I used to think like that but soon realised these types of retuns tend to belong to the "Get rich Quick" scammers out there.
Personally an average return of 4.5 points per month between the systems is rather good.