Sunday, 26 August 2012

Three Desmonds

With all the weekend games of financial interest in the record books, the Friendly Tipster League is updated below.

Standings as of 26.August.2012
There were a lot of XX Draw selections this week, I believe a record number, with four Classic selections and 13 Extended, which meant a lot of placing, monitoring, adjusting and recording of bets was going on at Cassini HQ.

Of those 17 selections, we had 7 draws for a nice profit - two were perfect, two were 1-1, and no less than three were imperfect 2-2s. Rather lucky perhaps, but on the other side of the coin were the two losers to 90' goals, and the HT0-0 that lost to a 45' goal. The Aston Villa v Everton game was an all-round disaster featuring an early goal and then lots more.

As the table shows, the Extended selections which are expected to be more numerous, but with a lower ROI than the Classic selections, are actually surpassing their older brother in all categories but the Match Odds Draw. Still early days, but with a total of 30 selections, and 150 bets if you bet all five suggested categories in each, the total profit is 27.14 points (ROI 22.62%) powered currently by the HT0-0 bet which alone has generated  11.66 points.

Some observations on a busy weekend:

Chievo v Bologna: Under 1.5 matched at 2.98 on 24th. 46 hours later 2.8 Draw price unmoved, staying in the 3.2 to 3.3 range.

Genoa v Cagliari: Draw matched at 3.4 on 26th. Down to 3.1 / 3.15 by kick off.

Palermo v Napoli: Under 1.5 matched at 3.65 on 25th. Out to 4.1 at kick-off.

Some examples of how pre-game moves can be quite dramatic. One subscriber asked if I placed my XX Draw bets early in the week or closer to kick-off, and the answer is the former. While it's frustrating to put in a back at say 3.55 and then see 3.7 available a couple of days later, I find it more annoying when 3.55 that was available is now at 3.3. One thing I didn't mention is that when I'm matched at 3.55 before the price drifts to 3.7, I will usually top-up at the higher price - always asking for a price rather than taking what's available. I then tend to watch the early part of the game, and lay off the top up amount once the price drops below my original entry point, so in the above example, I would lay off at 3.5 but keeping the amount I am comfortable risking in-play of course. This strategy doesn't always work, notably failing in the Aston Villa v Everton game yesterday, where an early (3') goal meant that none of the in-play lays were matched. It happens, but overall it appears to be an effective strategy.

On the subject of dramatic price movements, I looked at a new market today - the Corners Match Bet. This is not a market I have taken any interest in before, but some solid research from Premier Betting suggested that Arsenal were value (1.91) v Stoke City, and also Liverpool v Manchester City. After taking a 'watching brief' as Pete puts it, on the Arsenal game, and seeing the bet come in rather easily, (11-0), I decided to venture into the Liverpool v Manchester City game. At 1.81 the price on Liverpool looked too low, possibly driven down by Premier Betting's customers, but eight minutes later at kick-off, 2.12 was available. 31 ticks in 8 minutes before a ball is kicked? Unfortunately I took that 2.12 for £200 and then watched for 28 minutes waiting for the first corner. Since this game was an XX Draw (Extended) selection, I was in the strange position of wanting Liverpool pressure, just not too much. I have to say I'm not a big fan of these 'fringe' bets. Corners, along with thow-ins, cards etc. are an incidental statistic, by which I mean that the teams do not care about them, but it'll be something to watch. The Arsenal bet was certainly solid enough, backed up by some good statistics, but there is still the feeling that these are something of a lottery - take the Pescara v Internazionale game for an example, the result was 0-3, yet on corners Pescara won 10-2  - and I have my doubts that backing these bets at sub evens, with the tie always a possibility, is a long-term profitable strategy.

Tony's Tips moved up into fourth spot with the Tottenham Hotspur v WBA draw and a tasty lay of Real Madrid.

Griff's dreams almost came true with an impressive four draws from six matches, including the same three 2-2s that I had, and a 90' goal in his favour. Random fluctuations of probability evening out, and Griff is now only very slightly in the red.

Ian Erskine's first Lay The Draw pick was Middlesbrough v Crystal Palace, a loser for backers, and no selections from Football Elite or Little Al. [Correction - Little Al left a couple at Gold All Over - table updated].

The table is accurate I hope, but if anyone spots anything out of place, let me know. As I said, it's been a busy weekend.

Finally, an appeal for anyone who has the prices at, or close to kick-off, for the Saturday Bundesliga games of Hamburg v Nuremberg and Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayer Leverkusen. While I wasn't backing these, I did mean to note the prices on the Draw, HT0-0, and U1.5, U2.5 and U3.5 bets for tracking purposes, but quite forgot.

1 comment:

Baz said...

Great start for the XX Draws in what I think is an always tricky first few weeks.