Saturday, 4 August 2012

Golden Tenth

Baseball again, and my selective system is perhaps a little too selective come the second half of the season, with just one selection this month so far. It was a good one though, and thanks to a two-run homer in the 10th innings (10th innings have been good to me this week) the Chicago White Sox's win over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (10th innings have not been good to the Angels this week) saw the system move into the green for the first time since mid-June. With commission factored in, that won't be the case, but this exercise is more about trying to reduce the Premium Charge liability than making money. The interesting thing is, as I have mentioned before, the fact that the two handicap (+1.5 and -1.5) bets are faring so much better than the Match Odds market bets. It would be very profitable to lay the selection on the Match Odds markets, but back them on the handicaps.

While Tennis being an Olympic event is a little bizarre, nevertheless the Men's Gold Medal match is a redo of the Gentlemen's Singles Final at Wimbledon between Roger Federer and Andy Murray played just a few weeks ago. Federer was at ~1.56 for that July match, and is out to ~1.7 for Sunday's game. I wrote on July 7th:
To my layman's eye, Federer at 1.56 looks to be a gift, but there are others who know far more about tennis than I do, so this is not an investment that I claim to have an edge on. A fun bet to add some interest to the Gentlemen's Singles final.
Substitute "1.7" for "1.56", and "Gold Medal match" for "Gentlemen's Singles final", and that says it all. Federer is older now I guess, but I don't think a month is going to make much difference. What will make a difference is the roof, as an indoor game will suit Federer more than Murray. Keep an eye on the weather, as well as Murray's Mixed Doubles result/s today.

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