Wednesday, 21 November 2012

Drawing Away

As 58% of you voted for me to spend a few hours each week maintaining the Friendly Tipster League table, (thanks a lot) here it is as of last weekend, including Monday. 

Highlights are the Extended XX Draws regaining first place from Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster selections 0 from 3 this weekend), but otherwise not too much change. 

Interesting that the top three are all draw systems though. The XX Classic selections improved slightly, the XX Bundesliga had a 1-0 and a 2-0 so improvement on the Under bets if not the draw bets. 

Talkbet had a small disaster losing all six bets, and Neil and Premier Edge had poor weekends. 

Football Elite had seven selections, coming out close to even, and Tony's Lays had one selection emailed in time (which lost) and three others which won, but were received after the result was known, so in the interest of fairness to all, I really can't include those. 

Ian Erskine continues to find winners in his Lay The Draw selections, with just one from 23 so far ending all square. Quite remarkable actually. No selections from Griff again, and note how bad the Extended U1.5 returns are, when compared with the other markets for this category. 

This is also the worst performing bet of the Classic selections, although the Bundesliga returns on this bet compare quite well, but from a small sample. Al dropped into the red with no draws being found, and is level with the Classic Draws but behind on the tie-breaker (ROI).  

A couple of services I don't follow are TFA and Skeeve but I know a man who does, and apparently they had a poor weekend. Skeeve, I believe, focuses on non-league, while TFA focuses on the English League. 

I still haven't got around to setting up Elo ratings for a lower league, but my forays into the Championship have been profitable helped by Crystal Palace consistently being underrated. Another winner on Saturday as they easily beat Derby County, and next up at Selhurst Park are arguably Sussex's second best team... 

My choice of Fulham to beat Sunderland came up short in a game where an early, and unpredictable, (Fulham's first red card in over a year) sending off changed the game, and my balance matched the card.

1 comment:

Danny Murphy said...

Great blog Cassini. One thing I have wondered with your xx selections is this - are they all equal as regards testing? Has xx Extended U1.5 been tested over a few hundred trials for example?

In the prospectus I could see the historical xx draw stats but I am not so clear on the records of the other catagories.

As you commented above it's very hard to make money betting on football and perhaps your table is a good illustration of that.