Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Winners And Losers

A little later than usual, but here is the updated Friendly Tipster Table from this weekend. Drawmaster continues to set the pace with two more winning draws, although Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting had a poor weekend with three losses. Another poor weekend for Football Elite with three losses and a money-back on the fourth. Neil stays in profit, and Little Al moves into the green. 

The Free Under / Over site picked two winners to climb up the table, while Tony's laying of the away favourite lost on all five selections, dropping to 23rd. Still no selections from Griff who, for the second season, appears to have called it a day.

The Super Premium Charge continues to dampen my enthusiasm, which wasn't exactly boosted by the win that never was in the NFL on Sunday night. Occasionally there's a bet that looks too good to be true, the New York Knicks at Orlando last night was one such example was the unbeaten New York Knicks against an Orlando Magic team on a four game losing streak. A decent win, (Knicks won by 10) but last week's Premium Charge was more than this, and there's the definite feeling that I am getting too little in return for my efforts these days.

As SoccerDude reports, another blogger has called it a day, the optimistically named 500 to 5000 who I have written about previously. Some of you may remember how I caught him in a lie back in March with the infamous post subject "Profits are down...slightly....a short break needed" which in fact meant "Losses are up...a lot...", and apparently the short break needed is becoming permanent.

I wasn't actually a regular reader of the blog, but I just had a quick look and saw my name out there from a week ago (I'm famous!) when 500 wrote:
The second comment was from 'Averageguy' who posted:
'Al is everywhere, in fact I think that Cassini at Green all over loves Al even more than you do. Why do you care what his opinion is, the more constructive criticism we have the better. I don't agree with 99% of what Al says but it's nice to see an opposing view.'
Yes, I agree with some of what you write, and yes Cassini hates him more than I, but 'Al's comment on my blog wasn't constructive in any way at all. I don't really care what he writes, I just wanted to write what I think in response. :-) It's a free country, people can write what they like (as I chose to do). I am open to criticism and constructive comments.
Whilst my political views are a little different to Al's, I certainly don't 'hate' him. If I hated everyone who had different views on politics and religion, I wouldn't have too many friends.

Actually, come to think of it, I don't. How strange.


AL said...

My comments to 500-5000 may of seemed harsh, but after 4 years and still not making a profit - it's time to man up and face the music. The time for kid gloves and kind words is over.

Henke said...

After briefly glancing through the 500 to 5000 blog, I was just wondering if the main difference between a punter like you or someone like him is the difference on the amount of money each individual risks on each bet. Not that I am saying anyone can make huge profits without the proper knowledge, research and experience, but seeing so many people making huge profits, and so many with failing to do so, I was just curious about the reasoning behind it. What I mean is, we all know that, at the end of the day we cannot know the outcome of many games, there are some which we really believe in, and some we are not so sure of. After seeing the screenshots of your very well played NBA games (Lakers a week a go, and Knicks yesterday) I was just wondering if the huge winning differences occur since you play much bigger amounts (of course in relative to say, an average player, like 500 to 500, who probably cannot wager 1xxx pounds a game) when you have much more confidence in your bet, and some one else, even if they are confident with their bet, cannot do so. Perhaps totally wrong, but It is my impression that it may be easier for someone to make 500 into 5000, rather than 50 to 500 . Because I always had the impression that when you play small, you cannot create a lot of safety margin on your wins (that is profits enough to cover further losses), and even if you win quite a few times on low amounts, your potential profits are not raised significantly as they will be drained by the losses you make.

If I had 50 pounds on my betfair account today, and if i bet 20 percent of it on a very confident Knicks game, I would only make profits of 8.4 pounds which is only 4.2 times the minimum stake amount. Thus 2 failures from football (which, usually is less secure than a basketball game, obviously depending on the condition), would drain my profits by a lot, while on the other hand if I had 5000 on my account and bet 1000, a profit of 840 pounds create much bigger margin for losses depending how I figure my own minimum bet stakes, depending on the game.

Well everybody knows this is obvious, but its just shown me again that winning on this thing, like everything else in the world, depends on the initial investment a lot. Perhaps for this reason, quick ways to make small amounts into more significant amounts fail easily, heh?